The author's preface gives an outline: "This book is about weakconvergence methods in metric spaces, with applications sufficient to show their power and utility. The Introduction motivates the definitions and indicates how the theory will yield solutions to problems arising outside it. Chapter 1 sets out the basic general theorems, which are then specialized in Chapter 2 to the space C[0, l ] of continuous functions on the unit interval and in Chapter 3 to the space D [0, 1 ] of functions with discontinuities of the first kind. The results of the first three chapters are used in Chapter 4 to derive a variety of limit theorems for dependent sequences of random variables. " The book develops and expands on Donsker's 1951 and 1952 papers on the invariance principle and empirical distributions. The basic random variables remain real-valued although, of course, measures on C[0, l ] and D[0, l ] are vitally used. Within this framework, there are various possibilities for a different and apparently better treatment of the material. More of the general theory of weak convergence of probabilities on separable metric spaces would be useful. Metrizability of the convergence is not brought up until late in the Appendix. The close relation of the Prokhorov metric and a metric for convergence in probability is (hence) not mentioned (see V. Strassen, Ann. Math. Statist. 36 (1965), 423-439; the reviewer, ibid. 39 (1968), 1563-1572). This relation would illuminate and organize such results as Theorems 4.1, 4.2 and 4.4 which give isolated, ad hoc connections between weak convergence of measures and nearness in probability. In the middle of p. 16, it should be noted that C*(S) consists of signed measures which need only be finitely additive if 5 is not compact. On p. 239, where the author twice speaks of separable subsets having nonmeasurable cardinal, he means "discrete" rather than "separable." Theorem 1.4 is Ulam's theorem that a Borel probability on a complete separable metric space is tight. Theorem 1 of Appendix 3 weakens completeness to topological completeness. After mentioning that probabilities on the rationals are tight, the author says it is an

Convergence of probability measures

Twenty-five years ago, as an American GP living and practising in Wales, I would watch BBC sports programmes, such as darts and bowls and snooker, all unknown to me and, therefore, fascinating. I always found it odd — pairings such as Scotland (or Wales) versus The Rest of the World. It either seemed overly ambitious for Scotland or slim pickings for the rest of the world. After the recent US presidential election, it appears as if it will continue to be the US versus The Rest of the World.

Three books might help you, who are of ‘the rest of the world’, begin to grapple with what is going on in the US. Written from the short, medium, and long view, each has a somewhat parochial twist. Each also, however, contains a great deal of useful history.

The 9/11 Commission Report refutes the old saw that nothing good can be written by a committee. The report is a remarkable book and its recent nomination as a finalist for the National Book Award is a first for a government document, and well deserved. What is contained in this report is well known by most of us — the cast of characters has been in the news for over 3 years. And the sequence of events and many of the details that were gleaned from the ongoing hearings have been contained in news stories, long and short. However, to have published what is known until this point in a single narrative, which is at once accessible and clearly written, is a truly historical achievement. Reading the events of the day — regarding the planes that crashed in the city of New York, as the rescue squads from police and fire departments move into place and act — is both familiar and detailed in a way that helps us understand better than I would ever have imagined the why and how of all the death and destruction.

So much about those days have been parsed into documentaries — long analyses of causation of issues, like why the towers fell — that one would think that everything that could be written had been. But the Commission's report really does add enormous amounts of history to the sound bites and 30-second visuals that have pervaded politics and the world assessment of the US since that time. The report deals extensively and thoughtfully with the history of Islam, both ancient and recent, and describes the history of terrorism as it evolved from highjackings of the 1970s to the use of bombs and targeted destruction of military targets in the late 1980s and 1990s.

Events that occurred in the time that preceded the attacks of 9/11 are written in a way that shows the convergence of intelligence reports, a long history of threats from Bin Laden, and many alerts and warnings (‘the system was blinking red’ in the words of Tenet, CIA director). The information about the movements of the terrorists in their planning and the worldwide involvement of cells, support systems, and finances makes it clear that these events were truly the result of a network that reaches virtually everywhere.

After the attacks, reading of the efforts of the fire, police, and other rescue squads in New York adds specifics that are terrible and remarkable. On 9/11, I ran up and down the stairs between patients to watch on television as it was all happening. All of us who watched that day wondered what those people who were clearly doomed were thinking, feeling, and seeing. Their actual words in this report are not fiction, they are the words, for most the last words, of people who died as we watched. Their words are the hardest part of this long, detailed report to deal with.

Much of the final third of the report is devoted to what a fire captain friend of mine once called a PFE — a post-fire evaluation — which he mandated for his squad after every fire. In a PFE, the entire squad reconstructed, relived, and discussed the events to see what could be improved next time. The 9/11 Commission engaged in a world-scale PFE. Although all US politicians state that they intend to follow the recommendations of The 9/11 Commission Report, the backing and filling is already well underway. What politician, for example, is going to agree that major conurbations, and political and tactical targets should receive preference over their hometown fire departments and that homeland security money should ‘not be used as a pork barrel’?

Rather than bringing a grieving country together in a way that will make such events unlikely to happen again, the reactions from the report have begun to cleave along party lines once again. The 9/11 Commission was almost unique in its thoroughness, transparency, and its ability to focus on the real issue of terror and lawlessness. However, the extent to which a violent stateless ideology has negatively affected the tolerance of differences, the sense of community, and the level of civic discourse in the US means that terrorism has affected our neighborhoods as much as it has affected our country. And fear rather than determination, despite the President's stump speech, has become the dominant emotion.

Robert Byrd, from his 45-year perspective in the US Senate, understands that cheques and balances are essential to avoid tragedy, even if they, at times, impede progress. His book, Losing America, contains several ‘under-the-table’ looks at Congress and the manipulations and arrogance of the coterie of ideologues who surround George W. Bush. Byrd, from the Southern tradition of politeness and respect, which often cloaks bar-room politics, is steeped in the history of the institution of the Senate. He is personally offended by Bush's lack of interest or curiosity in the legislative process prior to 9/11, and his dishonesty and deception afterwards. Byrd's address to the Senate on the eve of the war on Iraq was widely quoted and is contained in this book. While people marching in the streets made headlines, it was an 85-year-old senator, not previously known as an outraged progressive, who took on both the Administration for its hypocrisy and many of his colleagues for their lack of courage and principle. He voted against the war and continues to point out the dishonesty of the people who guide it. The book reads with a sensibility from another age. Although his own history is certainly not without problems, Senator Byrd's belief in the true democratic process, rather than the gun-barrel approach of George W. Bush, should be given the respect that he, and it, deserve.

Arthur Schlesinger Jr has been writing history since 1946 and has Pulitzer prizes to prove he does it well. His voice is considered, thoughtful, and scholarly — as one might expect from a historian and distinguished teacher. Toward the end of his book War and the American Presidency, however, Schlesinger's voice rises with outrage at those who surround and influence George W. Bush, the ‘small group of Messianic statesman whose self righteousness bids fair to wreck our age’. He writes of the imperial presidencies of the early years of the country, which repressed dissent during wartime, and how the US moved from wars based on pique to engaging international diplomacy and internationalism. Schlesinger reminds us that all presidents since Wilson, with George W. Bush being the glaring exception, believed in statesmanship, diplomacy, alliances to guard against capricious choices and, when necessary, taking on common enemies.

Much of Schlesinger's book, however, also chronicles the record of the current Administration which, by being ‘judge, jury, and executioner resurrects the imperial presidency’. An imperial presidency in the age of frigates and single-shot rifles cannot be compared with one that possesses weapons of mass destruction and a wooly-headed sense of divine guidance. We used to think of Henry Kissinger as the prototype for Dr Strangelove, but I wish Kubrick were still alive to do the remake with Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld in mind.

Needless to say, the recent election, instead of relegating George W. Bush and his hangers-on to the historical trashbin, has pushed them to the front of the international agenda. A secretive, defensive, unreflective president will now shape the world for our grandchildren. Each of these books elaborates on the ineffectiveness of Bush dealing with the real enemy while he digs deeper into a country where he is creating more enemies by the day.

One has to ask why, instead of quietly writing their memoirs, two distinguished 87-year-old statesmen are raising the alarm and shaking us by the throat — like the aging Thomas Jefferson who, in his famous letter of 1820, said of the first compromise to try to divide the country between slave and free states: ‘this momentous question, like a firebell in the night, awakened and filled me with terror’. Byrd and Schlesinger hear the firebell and are ringing it to wake us up. Another quote that might better capture Bush and his legacy would be from the Bible he uses as justification for his policies: ‘He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind’ (Proverbs 11, 29).

The 9/11 Commission Report: Final Report of the National Commission on Terrorist attacks upon the United States.

Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions

Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) regulates the survival and growth of neurons, and influences synaptic efficiency and plasticity. The human BDNF gene consists of 11 exons, and distinct BDNF transcripts are produced through the use of alternative promoters and splicing events. The majority of the BDNF transcripts can be detected not only in the brain but also in the blood cells, although no study has yet investigated the differential expression of BDNF transcripts at the peripheral level. This review provides a description of the human BDNF gene structure as well as a summary of clinical and preclinical evidence supporting the role of BDNF in the pathogenesis of psychiatric disorders. We will discuss several mechanisms as possibly underlying BDNF modulation, including epigenetic mechanisms. We will also discuss the potential use of peripheral BDNF as a biomarker for psychiatric disorders, focusing on the factors that can influence BDNF gene expression and protein levels. Within this context, we have also characterized, for we believe the first time, the expression of BDNF transcripts in the blood, with the aim to provide novel insights into the molecular mechanisms and signaling that may regulate peripheral BDNF gene expression levels.

The human BDNF gene: peripheral gene expression and protein levels as biomarkers for psychiatric disorders.

Data and information fusion (DIF) involves a process of combining data from multiple inputs (from one or more sources such as sensors and textual reports).1 The aim is to obtain information that is better (more useful and meaningful) than that would be derived from each of the sources individually (that is, without fusing). DIF is emerging as an important field of multidisciplinary study [113, 316]. This is due to increase in data and information flow, as well as improvement in communication, computing and sensor technology. The first applications of DIF techniques were in the military arena [177, 179, 455]. The use of DIF techniques for problem-solving has extended to many non-military applications in the commercial and industrial sectors [177, 179, 199, 228]. In general, data and information fusion can provide enhancement to the outcomes of processes for solving various application problems. Some advantages of carrying out DIF include [316]: 2 improvement in the accuracy of data, as well as reduction in uncertainty and ambiguity within data, and 2 improvement in situation awareness (SAW) and inference that lead to better decision making.

High-level Information Fusion: An Overview.

We developed a novel integrative genomic tool called GRANITE (Genetic Regulatory Analysis of Networks Investigational Tool Environment) that can effectively analyze large complex data sets to generate interactive networks. GRANITE is an open-source tool and invaluable resource for a variety of genomic fields. Although our analysis is confined to static expression data, GRANITE has the capability of evaluating time-course data and generating interactive networks that may shed light on acute versus chronic treatment, as well as evaluating dose response and providing insight into mechanisms that underlie therapeutic versus sub-therapeutic doses or toxic doses. As a proof-of-concept study, we investigated lithium (Li) response in bipolar disorder (BD). BD is a severe mood disorder marked by cycles of mania and depression. Li is one of the most commonly prescribed and decidedly effective treatments for many patients (responders), although its mode of action is not yet fully understood, nor is it effective in every patient (non-responders). In an in vitro study, we compared vehicle versus chronic Li treatment in patient-derived lymphoblastoid cells (LCLs) (derived from either responders or non-responders) using both microRNA (miRNA) and messenger RNA gene expression profiling. We present both Li responder and non-responder network visualizations created by our GRANITE analysis in BD. We identified by network visualization that the Let-7 family is consistently downregulated by Li in both groups where this miRNA family has been implicated in neurodegeneration, cell survival and synaptic development. We discuss the potential of this analysis for investigating treatment response and even providing clinicians with a tool for predicting treatment response in their patients, as well as for providing the industry with a tool for identifying network nodes as targets for novel drug discovery.

/pdf/novel-integrative-genomic-tool-for-interrogating-lithium-3qx2s9w60d.pdf

Novel integrative genomic tool for interrogating lithium response in bipolar disorder.

Hypothesis-driven information fusion in adversarial, deceptive environments

Robustness against Deception

This report summarizes the discussions and findings of the Workshop on Intelligent Autonomous Agents for Cyber Defence and Resilience organized by the NATO research group IST-152-RTG. The workshop was held in Prague, Czech Republic, on 18-20 October 2017. There is a growing recognition that future cyber defense should involve extensive use of partially autonomous agents that actively patrol the friendly network, and detect and react to hostile activities rapidly (far faster than human reaction time), before the hostile malware is able to inflict major damage, evade friendly agents, or destroy friendly agents. This requires cyber-defense agents with a significant degree of intelligence, autonomy, self-learning, and adaptability. The report focuses on the following questions: In what computing and tactical environments would such an agent operate? What data would be available for the agent to observe or ingest? What actions would the agent be able to take? How would such an agent plan a complex course of actions? Would the agent learn from its experiences, and how? How would the agent collaborate with humans? How can we ensure that the agent will not take undesirable destructive actions? Is it possible to help envision such an agent with a simple example?

Toward Intelligent Autonomous Agents for Cyber Defense: Report of the 2017 Workshop by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Research Group IST-152-RTG

We propose a Deception Robust Control (DRC) for orchestrating the cyber sensors and cyber effectors present in typical enterprise information network systems operating in the ever changing situations that arise in servicing their missions. The theory and exemplar of deception control of focus here—though motivated by conventional warfare—applies to any partial information asymmetric stochastic game, including cyb er defense. We first motivate the need for automated deception reasoning in cyber defense, then provide a brief outline of the elements of a generic Deception Robust Controller (DRC), leading to the discussion on the challenges in adapting the centralized DRC to inherently distributed problems arising in cyber defense, and finally discuss our attempts to meet those challenges successfully.

Rajdeep Singh

Papers

Novel integrative genomic tool for interrogating lithium response in bipolar disorder.

Hypothesis-driven information fusion in adversarial, deceptive environments

Robustness against Deception

Toward Intelligent Autonomous Agents for Cyber Defense: Report of the 2017 Workshop by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Research Group IST-152-RTG

Deception Robust Control for automated cyber defense resource allocation