Introduction.- Data management and software.- Advice for teachers.- Exploration.- Linear regression.- Generalised linear modelling.- Additive and generalised additive modelling.- Introduction to mixed modelling.- Univariate tree models.- Measures of association.- Ordination--first encounter.- Principal component analysis and redundancy analysis.- Correspondence analysis and canonical correspondence analysis.- Introduction to discriminant analysis.- Principal coordinate analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling.- Time series analysis--Introduction.- Common trends and sudden changes.- Analysis and modelling lattice data.- Spatially continuous data analysis and modelling.- Univariate methods to analyse abundance of decapod larvae.- Analysing presence and absence data for flatfish distribution in the Tagus estuary, Portugual.- Crop pollination by honeybees in an Argentinean pampas system using additive mixed modelling.- Investigating the effects of rice farming on aquatic birds with mixed modelling.- Classification trees and radar detection of birds for North Sea wind farms.- Fish stock identification through neural network analysis of parasite fauna.- Monitoring for change: using generalised least squares, nonmetric multidimensional scaling, and the Mantel test on western Montana grasslands.- Univariate and multivariate analysis applied on a Dutch sandy beach community.- Multivariate analyses of South-American zoobenthic species--spoilt for choice.- Principal component analysis applied to harbour porpoise fatty acid data.- Multivariate analysis of morphometric turtle data--size and shape.- Redundancy analysis and additive modelling applied on savanna tree data.- Canonical correspondence analysis of lowland pasture vegetation in the humid tropics of Mexico.- Estimating common trends in Portuguese fisheries landings.- Common trends in demersal communities on the Newfoundland-Labrador Shelf.- Sea level change and salt marshes in the Wadden Sea: a time series analysis.- Time series analysis of Hawaiian waterbirds.- Spatial modelling of forest community features in the Volzhsko-Kamsky reserve.

Analysing Ecological Data

It is well documented that animals take risk of predation into account when making decisions about how to behave in particular situations, often trading-off risk against opportunities for mating or acquiring energy. Such an ability implies that animals have reliable information about the risk of predation at a given place and time. Chemosensory cues are an important source of such information. They reliably reveal the presence of predators (or their presence in the immediate past) and may also provide information on predator activity level and diet. In certain circumstances (e.g., in the dark, for animals in hiding) they may be the only cues available. Although a vast literature exists on the responses of prey to predator chemosensory cues (or odours), these studies are widely scattered, from marine biology to biological control, and not well known or appreciated by behavioural ecologists. In this paper, we provide an exhaustive review of this literature, primarily in tabular form. We highlight so...

The scent of death: Chemosensory assessment of predation risk by prey animals

Publisher Summary This chapter reviews the present empirical and theoretical work on antipredator decision making. The ways in which predators influence the behavioral decisions made by their prey is now the subject of a large and growing literature. Some notable recent advances include clear demonstrations that antipredatory decision making (1) may influence many aspects of reproductive behavior, (2) has demonstrable long-term consequences for individual fitness, and (3) may influence the nature of ecological systems themselves. There have also been many advances in the theory of antipredator behavior, which should provide a sound conceptual basis for further progress. Attention is needed for further work on the effects that predator and prey have on the other's behavioral decisions. The range of reproductive behaviors influenced by the risk of predation also requires much more investigation. Work on the long-term costs of antipredator decision making needs more empirical documentation and greater taxonomic diversity. Work on the ecological implications of antipredatory decision making has only scratched the surface, especially with regard to population-level effects and species interactions. Theoretical investigations should also play a prominent role in future work.

Stress and Decision Making under the Risk of Predation: Recent Developments from Behavioral, Reproductive, and Ecological Perspectives

The mussel Mytilus californianus is a competitive dominant on wave—swept rocky intertidal shores. Mussel beds may exist as extensive monocultures; more often they are an everchanging mosaic of many species which inhabit wave—generated patches or gaps. This paper describes observations and experiments designed to measure the critical parameters of a model of patch birth and death, and to use the model to predict the spatial structure of mussel beds. Most measurements were made at Tatoosh Island, Washington, USA, from 1970—1979. Patch size ranged at birth from a single mussel to 38 m2; the distribution of patch sizes approximates the lognormal. Birth rates varied seasonally and regionally. At Tatoosh the rate of patch formation varied during six winters from 0.4—5.4% of the mussels removed per month. The disturbance regime during the summer and at two mainland sites was 5—10 times less. Annual disturbance patterns tended to be synchronous within 11 sites on one face of Tatoosh over a 10—yr interval, and over larger distances (16 km) along the coastline. The pattern was asynchronous, however, among four Tatoosh localities. Patch birth rate, and mean and maximum size at birth can be used as adequate indices of disturbance. Patch disappearance (death) occurs by three mechanisms. Very small patches disappear almost immediately due to a leaning response of the border mussels (0.2 cm/d). Intermediate—sized patches (<3.0 m2) are eventually obliterated by lateral movement of the peripheral mussels: estimates based on 94 experimental patches yield a mean shrinking rate of 0.05 cm/d from each of two principal dimensions. Depth of the adjacent mussel bed accounts for much of the local variation in closing rate. In very large patches, mussels must recruit as larvae from the plankton. Recovery begins at an average patch age of 26 mo; rate of space occupation, primarily due to individual growth, is 2.0—2.5%/mo. Winter birth rates suggest a mean turnover time (rotation period) for mussel beds varying from 8.1—34.7 yr, depending on the location. The minimal value is in close agreement with both observed and calculated minimal recovery times. Projections of total patch area, based on the model, are accurate to within 5% of the observed. Using a method for determining the age of patches, based on a growth curve of the barnacle Balanus cariosus, the model permits predictions of the age—size structure of the patch population. The model predicts with excellent resolution the distribution of patch area in relation to time since last disturbance. The most detailed models which include size structure within age categories are inconclusive due to small sample size. Predictions are food for large patches, the major determinants of environmental patterns, but cannot deal adequately with smaller patches because of stochastic effects. Colonization data are given in relation to patch age, size and intertidal position. We suggest that the reproductive season of certain long—lived, patch—dependent species is moulded by the disturbance regime. The necessary and vital connection between disturbance which generates spatial pattern and species richness in communities open to invasion is discussed.

Intertidal landscapes: disturbance and the dynamics of pattern [Mytilus californianus, mussels]

Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.

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Longer and more frequent marine heatwaves over the past century

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Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate Lessons from the 2012 Ocean Heat Wave in the Northwest Atlantic

We have identified benthic recruitment habitats and nursery grounds of the American lobster Homarus americanus Milne Edwards in the coastal Gulf of Maine, USA, by systematically censusing subtidal sediment, cobble, and ledge substrata. We distinguish lobsters between settlement size (5 mm carapace length (CL)) to ca 40 mm CL as the 'early benthic phase' (EBP) because they are ecologically and behaviorally distinct from larger lobsters EBP lobsters are cryptic and apparently restricted to shelter-providing habitats (primarily cobble substratum) in coastal Gulf of Maine. In these habitats we found average population densities of EBP lobsters as high as 6.9 m-2 EBP lobsters were virtually absent from ledge and sedimentary substrata devoid of vegetation although larger lobsters are commonly found there. It is possible that the requirement for shelter-providing substrata by this life phase creates a natural demographic 'bottleneck' to benthic recruitment for the species. Prime cobble recruitment habitat is relatively rare and comprises ca 11 % of the 60.2 km of shoreline at our study area in midcoast Maine. If this low availability of cobble exists throughout the Gulf of Maine, as other studies indicate, it could limit lobster production potential. We verified the geographic extent of recruitment to cobble habitats censused in 3 of 4 regions spanning ca 300 km of the coastal Gulf of Maine (from Nahant, Massachusetts to Swans Island, Maine). Early benthic phase lobsters were absent from cobble censused in the northeastern extreme of our survey (Swans Island). This pattern is consistent with earlier speculation that relatively cool water temperatures may limit larval settlement in this region.

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Recruitment Habitats and Nursery Grounds of the American Lobster Homarus Americanus: A Demographic Bottleneck?

Habitat restrictions in early benthic life: experiments on habitat selection and in situ predation with the American lobster

Like many lobsters and crayfish, the American lobster Homarus americanus exhibits an ontogenetic shift from a strong, apparently predator reinforced association with sheltering habitats early in life to an increasingly wide ranging existence as it grows. At least in part, this shift may be related to a change in behavioral responses to predators, but neither the sensory capabilities nor the size-specific responses of lobsters to predators are well studied. I conducted laboratory experiments to determine the response of early benthic phase lobsters (ca. 5 to 40 mm carapace length) to the physical and chemical presence of fish predator

Richard A. Wahle

Papers

Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate Lessons from the 2012 Ocean Heat Wave in the Northwest Atlantic

Recruitment Habitats and Nursery Grounds of the American Lobster Homarus Americanus: A Demographic Bottleneck?

Habitat restrictions in early benthic life: experiments on habitat selection and in situ predation with the American lobster

Body-size dependent anti-predator mechanisms of the American

Body-size dependent anti-predator mechanisms of the American lobster