Annual Energy Outlook

The precipitous fall in oil prices, continued geopolitical instability and the ongoing global climate negotiations are witness to the dynamic nature of energy markets. In a time of so much uncertainty, understanding the implications of the shifting energy landscape for economic and environmental goals and for energy security is vital. The World Energy Outlook 2015 (WEO-2015) will present updated projections for the evolution of the global energy system to 2040, based on the latest data and market developments, as well as detailed insights on the prospects for fossil fuels, renewables, the power sector and energy efficiency and analysis on trends in CO2 emissions and fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies.
In addition, the WEO-2015 covers in-depth analysis on several topical issues:
 
A lower oil price future? The decline in oil prices and changed market conditions has prompted a broad debate over how and when the oil market will re-balance. This analysis will examine the implications for markets, policies, investment, the fuel mix and emissions if oil prices stay lower for longer.
India’s energy outlook: How India’s energy sector develops over the coming decades will have profound implications both for the country’s own prospects and for the global energy system as a whole. With new impetus behind efforts to upgrade the country’s energy supply, this comprehensive, in-depth analysis will assess the multiple challenges and opportunities facing India as it develops the resources and infrastructure to meet rapidly rising energy demand.
Renewables and energy efficiency: In the run-up to COP21, the Outlook will provide a report on the competitive position of fast-growing renewable energy technologies in different markets, how this evolves and what implications this might have for policy; the analysis also tracks for the first time the coverage of energy use by efficiency policies around the world and the ways in which product design, recycling and reuse (“material efficiency”) can contribute to energy savings.
Unconventional gas: In addition to an update on the opportunities and challenges that face the development of unconventional gas globally, analysis will focus on the prospects for unconventional gas in China and how this might affect China’s energy outlook as well as regional and global balances.

World Energy Outlook 2015

This study presents roadmaps for each of the 50 United States to convert their all-purpose energy systems (for electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) to ones powered entirely by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The plans contemplate 80–85% of existing energy replaced by 2030 and 100% replaced by 2050. Conversion would reduce each state's end-use power demand by a mean of ∼39.3% with ∼82.4% of this due to the efficiency of electrification and the rest due to end-use energy efficiency improvements. Year 2050 end-use U.S. all-purpose load would be met with ∼30.9% onshore wind, ∼19.1% offshore wind, ∼30.7% utility-scale photovoltaics (PV), ∼7.2% rooftop PV, ∼7.3% concentrated solar power (CSP) with storage, ∼1.25% geothermal power, ∼0.37% wave power, ∼0.14% tidal power, and ∼3.01% hydroelectric power. Based on a parallel grid integration study, an additional 4.4% and 7.2% of power beyond that needed for annual loads would be supplied by CSP with storage and solar thermal for heat, respectively, for peaking and grid stability. Over all 50 states, converting would provide ∼3.9 million 40-year construction jobs and ∼2.0 million 40-year operation jobs for the energy facilities alone, the sum of which would outweigh the ∼3.9 million jobs lost in the conventional energy sector. Converting would also eliminate ∼62 000 (19 000–115 000) U.S. air pollution premature mortalities per year today and ∼46 000 (12 000–104 000) in 2050, avoiding ∼$600 ($85–$2400) bil. per year (2013 dollars) in 2050, equivalent to ∼3.6 (0.5–14.3) percent of the 2014 U.S. gross domestic product. Converting would further eliminate ∼$3.3 (1.9–7.1) tril. per year in 2050 global warming costs to the world due to U.S. emissions. These plans will result in each person in the U.S. in 2050 saving ∼$260 (190–320) per year in energy costs ($2013 dollars) and U.S. health and global climate costs per person decreasing by ∼$1500 (210–6000) per year and ∼$8300 (4700–17 600) per year, respectively. The new footprint over land required will be ∼0.42% of U.S. land. The spacing area between wind turbines, which can be used for multiple purposes, will be ∼1.6% of U.S. land. Thus, 100% conversions are technically and economically feasible with little downside. These roadmaps may therefore reduce social and political barriers to implementing clean-energy policies.

100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States

Thirty years of North American research on public acceptance of wind energy has produced important insights, yet knowledge gaps remain. This review synthesizes the literature, revealing the following lessons learned. (1) North American support for wind has been consistently high. (2) The NIMBY explanation for resistance to wind development is invalid. (3) Socioeconomic impacts of wind development are strongly tied to acceptance. (4) Sound and visual impacts of wind facilities are strongly tied to annoyance and opposition, and ignoring these concerns can exacerbate conflict. (5) Environmental concerns matter, though less than other factors, and these concerns can both help and hinder wind development. (6) Issues of fairness, participation, and trust during the development process influence acceptance. (7) Distance from turbines affects other explanatory variables, but alone its influence is unclear. (8) Viewing opposition as something to be overcome prevents meaningful understandings and implementation of best practices. (9) Implementation of research findings into practice has been limited. The paper also identifies areas for future research on wind acceptance. With continued research efforts and a commitment toward implementing research findings into developer and policymaker practice, conflict and perceived injustices around proposed and existing wind energy facilities might be significantly lessened.

/pdf/thirty-years-of-north-american-wind-energy-acceptance-277oetpv5z.pdf

Thirty years of North American wind energy acceptance research: What have we learned?

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2020AV000284

Carbon-Neutral Pathways for the United States

Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States

Leveraging this experience, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Wind and Water Power Technologies Office has evaluated the potential for wind power to generate electricity in all 50 states. This report analyzes and quantifies the geographic expansion that could be enabled by accessing higher above ground heights for wind turbines and considers the means by which this new potential could be responsibly developed.

/pdf/enabling-wind-power-nationwide-2figkya7up.pdf

Enabling Wind Power Nationwide

/pdf/enabling-the-smart-wind-power-plant-of-the-future-through-3xr6amag4r.pdf

Enabling the SMART Wind Power Plant of the Future Through Science-Based Innovation

Clean energy research and development (R and D) leading to commercial technologies is vital to economic development, technology competitiveness, and reduced environmental impact. Over the past 30 years, such efforts have advanced technology performance and reduced cost by leveraging network effects and economies of scale. After demonstrating promise in applied R and D, successful clean energy and energy efficiency technologies are incorporated into an initial product sold by the private sector. Despite its importance, processes by which first commercialization occurs are difficult to generalize while capturing specific insights from practitioners in markets and technologies. This paper presents a policy-focused qualitative assessment of the first commercialization of four diverse energy technologies: thin film photovoltaics, wind turbine blades, dual-stage refrigeration evaporators, and fuel cells for material handling equipment. Each technology presents distinct value propositions, markets, and regulatory drivers. The case studies indicate three common characteristics of successful first commercialization for new energy technologies: 1) good fit between the technology, R&D infrastructure, and public-private partnership models; 2) high degree of alignment of government regulations and R&D priorities with market forces; and 3) compatibility between time scales required for R&D, product development, and opportunities. These findings may inform energy investment decision-making, maximize benefits from R&D, and advance the transition to a low-emission future.

Richard Tusing

Papers

Wind Vision: A New Era for Wind Power in the United States

Enabling Wind Power Nationwide

Enabling the SMART Wind Power Plant of the Future Through Science-Based Innovation

Clean energy technology pathways from research to commercialization: Policy and practice case studies