Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing

This chapter should be cited as: Myhre, G., D. Shindell, F.-M. Bréon, W. Collins, J. Fuglestvedt, J. Huang, D. Koch, J.-F. Lamarque, D. Lee, B. Mendoza, T. Nakajima, A. Robock, G. Stephens, T. Takemura and H. Zhang, 2013: Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Coordinating Lead Authors: Gunnar Myhre (Norway), Drew Shindell (USA)

Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing

Unified theory of nuclear reactions

Our current understanding of mechanisms that are, or may be, acting to cause climate change over the past century is briefly reviewed, with an emphasis on those due to human activity. The paper discusses the general level of confidence in these estimates and areas of remaining uncertainty. The effects of increases in the so-called well-mixed greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide, appear to be the dominant mechanism. However, there are considerable uncertainties in our estimates of many other forcing mechanisms; those associated with the so-called indirect aerosol forcing (whereby changes in aerosols can impact on cloud properties) may be the most serious, as its climatic effect may be of a similar size as, but opposite sign to, that due to carbon dioxide. The possible role of volcanic eruptions as a natural climate change mechanism is also highlighted.

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Radiative forcing of climate change

[1] We use a global climate model to compare the effectiveness of many climate forcing agents for producing climate change. We find a substantial range in the “efficacy” of different forcings, where the efficacy is the global temperature response per unit forcing relative to the response to CO2 forcing. Anthropogenic CH4 has efficacy ∼110%, which increases to ∼145% when its indirect effects on stratospheric H2O and tropospheric O3 are included, yielding an effective climate forcing of ∼0.8 W/m2 for the period 1750–2000 and making CH4 the largest anthropogenic climate forcing other than CO2. Black carbon (BC) aerosols from biomass burning have a calculated efficacy ∼58%, while fossil fuel BC has an efficacy ∼78%. Accounting for forcing efficacies and for indirect effects via snow albedo and cloud changes, we find that fossil fuel soot, defined as BC + OC (organic carbon), has a net positive forcing while biomass burning BC + OC has a negative forcing. We show that replacement of the traditional instantaneous and adjusted forcings, Fi and Fa, with an easily computed alternative, Fs, yields a better predictor of climate change, i.e., its efficacies are closer to unity. Fs is inferred from flux and temperature changes in a fixed-ocean model run. There is remarkable congruence in the spatial distribution of climate change, normalized to the same forcing Fs, for most climate forcing agents, suggesting that the global forcing has more relevance to regional climate change than may have been anticipated. Increasing greenhouse gases intensify the Hadley circulation in our model, increasing rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), Eastern United States, and East Asia, while intensifying dry conditions in the subtropics including the Southwest United States, the Mediterranean region, the Middle East, and an expanding Sahel. These features survive in model simulations that use all estimated forcings for the period 1880–2000. Responses to localized forcings, such as land use change and heavy regional concentrations of BC aerosols, include more specific regional characteristics. We suggest that anthropogenic tropospheric O3 and the BC snow albedo effect contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss in the Arctic. As a complement to a priori forcings, such as Fi, Fa, and Fs, we tabulate the a posteriori effective forcing, Fe, which is the product of the forcing and its efficacy. Fe requires calculation of the climate response and introduces greater model dependence, but once it is calculated for a given amount of a forcing agent it provides a good prediction of the response to other forcing amounts.

Efficacy of climate forcings

A trial solution constructed from two-particle functions is applied to the problem of the $N$-particle system with strong interactions. In a variational treatment based on this wave function the expectation values, which cannot be factored into single-particle integrals, are evaluated by a cluster development in powers of the particle density. The procedure is illustrated by a calculation of the pair distribution function and zero-point energy of the hard sphere gas, for Bose and Fermi statistics.

Many-Body Problem with Strong Forces

CHANGES in the brightness of the Sun may introduce further uncertainties into forecasts of global warming by the greenhouse effect. The Sun is known to vary in brightness, on a timescale of years, by 0.1% in phase with changes in magnetic activity during the solar cycle1–3, and variations of up to 0.4%, also correlated with surface magnetic activity, have been found in stars similar to the Sun4. To delimit the magnitude of solar luminosity variations on a timescale of centuries, we have looked at the magnetic behaviour of a number of solar-type stars over several years. Observed in random phases of their long-term variability, they give a sample of the behaviour of a solar-type star over a long period of time. We find indirect evidence that these stars undergo brightness changes of more than the 0.1% observed during the last solar cycle, a result that calls into question the assumption of a constant Sun in calculations using general circulation models for climate forecasting.

Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars

A charge-independent interaction between nucleons is assumed, which is characterized by a short range repulsion interior to an attractive well. It is shown that it is then possible to account for the qualitative features of currently known $n\ensuremath{-}p$ and $p\ensuremath{-}p$ scattering data. Some of the implications for saturation are discussed.

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On the Nucleon-Nucleon Interaction

The drag exerted on the satellite in its orbit arises partly from collisions with neutral air particles and partly from losses associated with the passage of a charged sphere through an ionized medium. It is found that the charged and neutral effects are comparable under the atmospheric conditions expected at an orbital altitude of 300 miles.

Robert Jastrow

Papers

Many-Body Problem with Strong Forces

Evidence for long-term brightness changes of solar-type stars

On the Nucleon-Nucleon Interaction

Atmospheric drag on the satellite

God and the Astronomers