世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

2016 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

This report provides information to increase understanding of the public health impact of Alzheimer's disease (AD), including incidence and prevalence, mortality rates, health expenditures and costs of care, and effect on caregivers and society in general. It also explores the roles and unique challenges of long‐distance caregivers, as well as interventions that target those challenges. An estimated 5.2 million Americans have AD. Approximately 200,000 people younger than 65 years with AD comprise the younger onset AD population; 5 million comprise the older onset AD population. Throughout the coming decades, the baby boom generation is projected to add about 10 million to the total number of people in the United States with AD. Today, someone in America develops AD every 68 seconds. By 2050, one new case of AD is expected to develop every 33 seconds, or nearly a million new cases per year, and the total estimated prevalence is expected to be 13.8 million. AD is the sixth leading cause of death in the United States and the fifth leading cause of death in Americans age 65 years or older. Between 2000 and 2010, the proportion of deaths resulting from heart disease, stroke, and prostate cancer decreased 16%, 23%, and 8%, respectively, whereas the proportion resulting from AD increased 68%. The number of deaths from AD as determined by official death certificates (83,494 in 2010) likely underrepresents the number of AD‐related deaths in the United States. A projected 450,000 older Americans with AD will die in 2013, and a large proportion will die as a result of complications of AD. In 2012, more than 15 million family members and other unpaid caregivers provided an estimated 17.5 billion hours of care to people with AD and other dementias, a contribution valued at more than $216 billion. Medicare payments for services to beneficiaries age 65 years and older with AD and other dementias are three times as great as payments for beneficiaries without these conditions, and Medicaid payments are 19 times as great. Total payments in 2013 for health care, long‐term care, and hospice services for people age 65 years and older with dementia are expected to be $203 billion (not including the contributions of unpaid caregivers). An estimated 2.3 million caregivers of people with AD and other dementias live at least 1 hour away from the care recipient. These “long‐distance caregivers” face unique challenges, including difficulty in assessing the care recipient's true health condition and needs, high rates of family disagreement regarding caregiving decisions, and high out‐of‐pocket expenses for costs related to caregiving. Out‐of‐pocket costs for long‐distance caregivers are almost twice as high as for local caregivers.

2013 Alzheimer's disease facts and figures

Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr−1), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/109/40/16083.full.pdf

Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

Today, the life course perspective is perhaps the pre-eminent theoretical orientation in the study of lives, but this has not always been the case. The life histories and future trajectories of individuals and groups were largely neglected by early sociological research. In the pioneering study, The Polish Peasant in Europe and America (1918-1920), W. I. Thomas (with Florian Znaniecki) first made use of such histories and trajectories and argued strongly that they be investigated more fully by sociologists. By the mid-1920s, Thomas was emphasizing the vital need for a “longitudinal approach to life history” using life record data (Volkart, 1951, p. 593). He advocated that studies investigate “many types of individuals with regard to their experiences and various past periods of life in different situations” and follow “groups of individuals into the future, getting a continuous record of experiences as they occur.” Though this advice went unheeded for decades, Thomas’s early recommendations anticipated study of the life course and longitudinal research that has become such a central part of modern sociology and other disciplines.

/pdf/the-emergence-and-development-of-life-course-theory-2r963k8nc5.pdf

The Emergence and Development of Life Course Theory

In their later years, Americans of different racial and ethnic backgrounds are not in equally good--or equally poor--health. There is wide variation, but on average older Whites are healthier than older Blacks and tend to outlive them. But Whites tend to be in poorer health than Hispanics and Asian Americans. This volume documents the differentials and considers possible explanations. 

Selection processes play a role: selective migration, for instance, or selective survival to advanced ages. Health differentials originate early in life, possibly even before birth, and are affected by events and experiences throughout the life course. Differences in socioeconomic status, risk behavior, social relations, and health care all play a role. Separate chapters consider the contribution of such factors and the biopsychosocial mechanisms that link them to health. This volume provides the empirical evidence for the research agenda provided in the separate report of the Panel on Race, Ethnicity, and Health in Later Life.

Critical Perspectives on Racial and Ethnic Differences in Health in Late Life

Determinants of fertility in developing countries.

Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved The book includes analysis of how well past UN and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations

Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population

The values and disvalues that wives and husbands in the Philippines, South Korea, and the United States attach to having another child are described from national survey data. Loglinear models are used to demonstrate that both country and parity affect value and disvalues rankings, but respondent’s sex does not. The differences in values and disvalues across parities suggest a multistage model of family formation, with perceptions of successive children linked to periods in family development. It is argued that this multistage. model is consistent with changes in the value of children in the fertility transition.

/pdf/values-and-disvalues-of-children-in-successive-childbearing-myf7den4f0.pdf

Rodolfo A Bulatao

Papers

Critical Perspectives on Racial and Ethnic Differences in Health in Late Life

Determinants of fertility in developing countries.

Beyond six billion : forecasting the world's population

Values and disvalues of children in successive childbearing decisions

The Life Course