Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

Criticism and the Growth of Knowledge. Edited by I. Lakatos and A. Musgrave. Pp. viii, 282. £3·50, paperback £1. 1970. (Cambridge University Press.)

Beginning with Emlen (1966) and MacArthur and Pianka (1966) and extending through the last ten years, several authors have sought to predict the foraging behavior of animals by means of mathematical models. These models are very similar,in that they all assume that the fitness of a foraging animal is a function of the efficiency of foraging measured in terms of some "currency" (Schoener, 1971) -usually energy- and that natural selection has resulted in animals that forage so as to maximize this fitness. As a result of these similarities, the models have become known as "optimal foraging models"; and the theory that embodies them, "optimal foraging theory." The situations to which optimal foraging theory has been applied, with the exception of a few recent studies, can be divided into the following four categories: (1) choice by an animal of which food types to eat (i.e., optimal diet); (2) choice of which patch type to feed in (i.e., optimal patch choice); (3) optimal allocation of time to different patches; and (4) optimal patterns and speed of movements. In this review we discuss each of these categories separately, dealing with both the theoretical developments and the data that permit tests of the predictions. The review is selective in the sense that we emphasize studies that either develop testable predictions or that attempt to test predictions in a precise quantitative manner. We also discuss what we see to be some of the future developments in the area of optimal foraging theory and how this theory can be related to other areas of biology. Our general conclusion is that the simple models so far formulated are supported are supported reasonably well by available data and that we are optimistic about the value both now and in the future of optimal foraging theory. We argue, however, that these simple models will requre much modification, espicially to deal with situations that either cannot easily be put into one or another of the above four categories or entail currencies more complicated that just energy.

Citation classic - optimal foraging - a selective review of theory and tests

Knowledge Management

Econometric policy evaluation: A critique

Dear Sir,A challenge to the reliability of low copy number (LCN)DNA profiling in the trial of Sean Hoey in Belfast CrownCourt in Northern Ireland (R v Hoey [2007] NICC 49, 20December, 2007) prompted the UK’s new Forensic ScienceRegulator (Andrew Rennison) to commission a review oflow template DNA profiling techniques. That review [2],conducted by Professor Brian Caddy (with the assistance ofDr. Adrian Linacre and Dr. Graham Taylor) was released on12 April, 2008 and concluded that LCN DNA profiling is“robust” and “fit for purpose.” Yet, the review accepts thatthe evidence presented in Sean Hoey’s trial was insufficientto establish the validity of the technique. It also enumerates21 recommendations for specific improvements that shouldbe undertaken to improve the methodology, including suchbasic steps as the development of a consensus on theinterpretation of test results and efforts to establish “bestpractices” for interpretation.We believe the conclusions of the review are inconsistentwith its recommendations in a number of respects. Forexample, it is difficult to see how a forensic techniquecould be deemed adequately validated for use in thecourtroom when there is not yet a consensus on how itsresults should be interpreted. The review thus raisesimportant issues about what it means for a forensic sciencetechnique to be validated. It also establishes grounds forconcern about the way that LCN DNA test results havebeen interpreted in earlier cases.We are concerned that the review team relied only oninput regarding the merits of LCN approaches fromorganizations that are dedicated to promoting its use bylaw enforcement. Consultation with known critics of thetechnique (or even a review of their published works)would have provided the reviewers with a broaderperspective of what work remains to be done before theapproach can become generally accepted within theinternational scientific community. There are in fact thingsabout LCN approaches upon which the reviewers andcritics do agree. For instance, caution that “[p]ublicizing thepotential of the application of LCN typing withoutdescribing its limitations may cause misunderstanding” [1]which is consistent with the review’s recommendations 1,3, and 13. But given the conclusion that “[t]he methodcannot be used for exculpatory purposes” [1], the review’sultimate conclusion that LCN testing is “fit for purpose”leaves the important but unanswered question of “what isthat purpose?”

/pdf/comments-on-the-review-of-low-copy-number-testing-4ysf3ae5km.pdf

Comments on the review of low copy number testing.

Contributors Preface and Acknowledgement 1. A Zeal for the Truth 2. The Yeager Mystique: A Profile of the Scholar as Teacher and Colleague 3. The Virginia Renaissance in Political Economy: The 1960s Revisited 4. Leland, A Personal Appreciation 5. Monopoly Politics and Its Unsurprising Effects 6. Good Ideas and Bad Regressions: The Sad State of Empirical Work in Public Choice 7. Pluralism, Formalism and American Economics 8. Leland's Favourite Economists 9. The Genesis of an Idea: Classical Economics and the Birth of Monetary Disequilibrium Theory 10. The Macroeconomics of Money, Saving, and Investment 11. No-Name Money 12. Monetary Disequilibrium Theory and Austrian Macroeconomics: Further Thoughts on a Synthesis 13. Reflections on Reswitching and Roundaboutness 14. Leland Yeager's Utilitarianism as a Guide to Public Policy 15. Ethnic Conflict and the Economics of Social Cooperation: Reflections on a Difficult Problem 16. The Legacy of Bismarck

Money and Markets: Essays in Honor of Leland B. Yeager

Commentary on: Thornton JI. Letter to the editor—a rejection of “working blind” as a cure for contextual bias. J Forensic Sci 2010;55(6):1663

The Great Recession seems to be creating a New Interventionist Economics characterized by bubbles, radical uncertainty, animal spirits, complexity dynamics, and extra-market control. When placed in that order, these characteristic create the acronym BRACE. We review some evidence and literature pointing to BRACE economics and briefly suggest some avenues to challenge the new interventionists.

BRACE for a New Interventionist Economics

The volume gathers together papers presented at the second biennial Wirth conference on Austrian economics, held in October 2008 when the crisis of Fall 2008 was still new and shocking. This coincidence of timing makes policy issues and crisis management a kind of leitmotif of the volume.

/pdf/what-is-so-austrian-about-austrian-economics-55uhgyhr5i.pdf

Roger Koppl

Papers

Comments on the review of low copy number testing.

Money and Markets: Essays in Honor of Leland B. Yeager

Commentary on: Thornton JI. Letter to the editor—a rejection of “working blind” as a cure for contextual bias. J Forensic Sci 2010;55(6):1663

BRACE for a New Interventionist Economics

What is so Austrian about Austrian economics