OBJECTIVE —The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS —Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations’ population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. RESULTS —The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. CONCLUSIONS —These findings indicate that the “diabetes epidemic” will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.

https://www.who.int/diabetes/facts/en/diabcare0504.pdf

Global Prevalence of Diabetes: Estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030

Global estimates of the prevalence of diabetes for 2010 and 2030.

Changes in human behaviour and lifestyle over the last century have resulted in a dramatic increase in the incidence of diabetes worldwide. The epidemic is chiefly of type 2 diabetes and also the associated conditions known as 'diabesity' and 'metabolic syndrome'. In conjunction with genetic susceptibility, particularly in certain ethnic groups, type 2 diabetes is brought on by environmental and behavioural factors such as a sedentary lifestyle, overly rich nutrition and obesity. The prevention of diabetes and control of its micro- and macrovascular complications will require an integrated, international approach if we are to see significant reduction in the huge premature morbidity and mortality it causes.

Global and societal implications of the diabetes epidemic

IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global estimates for the prevalence of diabetes for 2015 and 2040.

http://cardiologia.publicacionmedica.com/contenido/images/stemi_aha_2013.pdf

2013 ACCF/AHA Guideline for the Management of ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people with diabetes who are ≥20 years of age in all countries of the world for three points in time, i.e., the years 1995, 2000, and 2025, and to calculate additional parameters, such as sex ratio, urban-rural ratio, and the age structure of the diabetic population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Age-specific diabetes prevalence estimates were applied to United Nations population estimates and projections for the number of adults aged ≥20 years in all countries of the world. For developing countries, urban and rural populations were considered separately

RESULTS Prevalence of diabetes in adults worldwide was estimated to be 4.0% in 1995 and to rise to 5.4% by the year 2025. It is higher in developed than in developing countries. The number of adults with diabetes in the world will rise from 135 million in 1995 to 300 million in the year 2025. The major part of this numerical increase will occur in developing countries. There will be a 42% increase, from 51 to 72 million, in the developed countries and a 170% increase, from 84 to 228 million, in the developing countries. Thus, by the year 2025, >75% of people with diabetes will reside in developing countries, as compared with 62% in 1995. The countries with the largest number of people with diabetes are, and will be in the year 2025, India, China, and the U.S. In developing countries, the majority of people with diabetes are in the age range of 45–64 years. In the developed countries, the majority of people with diabetes are aged ≥65 years. This pattern will be accentuated by the year 2025. There are more women than men with diabetes, especially in developed countries. In the future, diabetes will be increasingly concentrated in urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS This report supports earlier predictions of the epidemic nature of diabetes in the world during the first quarter of the 21st century. It also provides a provisional picture of the characteristics of the epidemic. Worldwide surveillance of diabetes is a necessary first step toward its prevention and control, which is now recognized as an urgent priority.

Global Burden of Diabetes, 1995–2025: Prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections

Background: Control of hyperglycemia delays or prevents complications of diabetes, but many persons with diabetes do not achieve optimal control. Objective: To compare diabetes control in patients receiving nurse case management and patients receiving usual care. Design: Randomized, controlled trial. Setting: Primary care clinics in a group-model health maintenance organization (HMO). Patients: 17 patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus and 121 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Intervention: The nurse case manager followed written management algorithms under the direction of a family physician and an endocrinologist. Changes in therapy were communicated to primary care physicians. All patients received ongoing care through their primary care physicians. Measurements: The primary outcome, hemoglobin A 1c (HbA 1c ) value, was measured at baseline and at 12 months. Fasting blood glucose levels, medication type and dose, body weight, blood pressure, lipid levels, patient-perceived health status, episodes of severe hypoglycemia, and emergency department and hospital admissions were also assessed. Results: 72% of patients completed follow-up. Patients in the nurse case management group had mean decreases of 1.7 percentage points in HbA 1c values and 43 mg/dL (2.38 mmol/L) in fasting glucose levels; patients in the usual care group had decreases of 0.6 percentage points in HbA 1c values and 15 mg/dL (0.83 mmol/L) in fasting glucose levels (P < 0.01). Self-reported health status improved in the nurse case management group (P = 0.02). The nurse case management intervention was not associated with statistically significant changes in medication type or dose, body weight, blood pressure, or lipids or with adverse events. Conclusions: A nurse case manager with considerable management responsibility can, in association with primary care physicians and an endocrinologist, help improve glycemic control in diabetic patients in a group-model HMO.

Nurse Case Management To Improve Glycemic Control in Diabetic Patients in a Health Maintenance Organization: A Randomized, Controlled Trial

Objectives To review the definitions and methods for measuring medication persistency, and to propose a uniform definition of and calculation for persistency using pharmacy claims data. Study design Literature review. Methods A MEDLINE search (1966 to present) was performed to identify articles detailing a definition or method of persistency measurement based on automated pharmacy data. Articles were screened for relevance by title and abstract. References from identified articles were used to expand the search results. Results The concept behind medication persistency measurement is to capture the amount of time that an individual remains on chronic drug therapy. The methods to calculate medication persistency can be classified into 1 of 3 categories: (1) Persistency as a function of the medication possession ratio; (2) persistency as a function of medication availability at a fixed point in time; and (3) persistency as a function of the gaps between refills. Conclusions The common goal of all persistency measures should be to reflect the continuity of medication usage and to capture the timeliness and the frequency of refilling. The measurement of persistency as a function of the gaps between refills provides the best assessment of refill compliance across a variety of medication and disease states and lends itself to the well-established measurements of survival analysis.

Estimating medication persistency using administrative claims data.

To develop a benchmark measure of US physicians' level of knowledge and extent of use of pharmacogenomic testing, we conducted an anonymous, cross-sectional, fax-based, national survey. Of 397,832 physicians receiving the survey questionnaire, 10,303 (3%) completed and returned it; the respondents were representative of the overall US physician population. The factors associated with the decision to test were evaluated using χ(2) and multivariate logistic regression. Overall, 97.6% of responding physicians agreed that genetic variations may influence drug response, but only 10.3% felt adequately informed about pharmacogenomic testing. Only 12.9% of physicians had ordered a test in the previous 6 months, and 26.4% anticipated ordering a test in the next 6 months. Early and future adopters of testing were more likely to have received training in pharmacogenomics, but only 29.0% of physicians overall had received any education in the field. Our findings highlight the need for more effective physician education on the clinical value, availability, and interpretation of pharmacogenomic tests.

Ronald E. Aubert

Papers

Global Burden of Diabetes, 1995–2025: Prevalence, numerical estimates, and projections

Nurse Case Management To Improve Glycemic Control in Diabetic Patients in a Health Maintenance Organization: A Randomized, Controlled Trial

Estimating medication persistency using administrative claims data.

Adoption of pharmacogenomic testing by US physicians: results of a nationwide survey.

Warfarin Genotyping Reduces Hospitalization Rates: Results From the MM-WES (Medco-Mayo Warfarin Effectiveness Study)