Cause, conseguenze e strategie di mitigazione Proponiamo il primo di una serie di articoli in cui affronteremo l’attuale problema dei mutamenti climatici. Presentiamo il documento redatto, votato e pubblicato dall’Ipcc - Comitato intergovernativo sui cambiamenti climatici - che illustra la sintesi delle ricerche svolte su questo tema rilevante.

/pdf/climate-change-2007-the-physical-science-basis-1x93ttz9jt.pdf

Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.

/pdf/vegetation-demographics-in-earth-system-models-a-review-of-f1jfkobtqz.pdf

Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities.

. In hydrological climate-change impact studies, regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used to transfer large-scale global climate model (GCM) data to smaller scales and to provide more detailed regional information. Due to systematic and random model errors, however, RCM simulations often show considerable deviations from observations. This has led to the development of a number of correction approaches that rely on the assumption that RCM errors do not change over time. It is in principle not possible to test whether this underlying assumption of error stationarity is actually fulfilled for future climate conditions. In this study, however, we demonstrate that it is possible to evaluate how well correction methods perform for conditions different from those used for calibration with the relatively simple differential split-sample test. For five Swedish catchments, precipitation and temperature simulations from 15 different RCMs driven by ERA40 (the 40 yr reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)) were corrected with different commonly used bias correction methods. We then performed differential split-sample tests by dividing the data series into cold and warm respective dry and wet years. This enabled us to cross-evaluate the performance of different correction procedures under systematically varying climate conditions. The differential split-sample test identified major differences in the ability of the applied correction methods to reduce model errors and to cope with non-stationary biases. More advanced correction methods performed better, whereas large deviations remained for climate model simulations corrected with simpler approaches. Therefore, we question the use of simple correction methods such as the widely used delta-change approach and linear transformation for RCM-based climate-change impact studies. Instead, we recommend using higher-skill correction methods such as distribution mapping.

Is bias correction of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations possible for non-stationary conditions?

Ongoing climate change poses significant threats to plant function and distribution. Increased temperatures and altered precipitation regimes amplify drought frequency and intensity, elevating plant stress and mortality. Large-scale forest mortality events will have far-reaching impacts on carbon and hydrological cycling, biodiversity, and ecosystem services. However, biogeographical theory and global vegetation models poorly represent recent forest die-off patterns. Furthermore, as trees are sessile and long-lived, their responses to climate extremes are substantially dependent on historical factors. We show that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability. When environmental favourability declines, increases in water and temperature stress that are protracted, rapid, or both, drive a gradient of tree structural responses that can modify forest self-thinning relationships. Responses ranging from premature leaf senescence and partial canopy dieback to whole-tree mortality reduce canopy leaf area during the stress period and for a lagged recovery window thereafter. Such temporal mismatches of water requirements from availability can occur at local to regional scales throughout a species geographical range. As climate change projections predict large future fluctuations in both wet and dry conditions, we expect forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes. By accounting for the historical context of biomass development, our approach can explain previously problematic aspects of large-scale forest mortality, such as why it can occur throughout the range of a species and yet still be locally highly variable, and why some events seem readily attributable to an ongoing drought while others do not. This refined understanding can facilitate better projections of structural overshoot responses, enabling improved prediction of changes in forest distribution and function from regional to global scales.

/pdf/structural-overshoot-of-tree-growth-with-climate-variability-5ynzb440iz.pdf

Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback

. The Amazon Basin plays key roles in the carbon and water cycles, climate change, atmospheric chemistry, and biodiversity. It has already been changed significantly by human activities, and more pervasive change is expected to occur in the coming decades. It is therefore essential to establish long-term measurement sites that provide a baseline record of present-day climatic, biogeochemical, and atmospheric conditions and that will be operated over coming decades to monitor change in the Amazon region, as human perturbations increase in the future. The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) has been set up in a pristine rain forest region in the central Amazon Basin, about 150 km northeast of the city of Manaus. Two 80 m towers have been operated at the site since 2012, and a 325 m tower is nearing completion in mid-2015. An ecological survey including a biodiversity assessment has been conducted in the forest region surrounding the site. Measurements of micrometeorological and atmospheric chemical variables were initiated in 2012, and their range has continued to broaden over the last few years. The meteorological and micrometeorological measurements include temperature and wind profiles, precipitation, water and energy fluxes, turbulence components, soil temperature profiles and soil heat fluxes, radiation fluxes, and visibility. A tree has been instrumented to measure stem profiles of temperature, light intensity, and water content in cryptogamic covers. The trace gas measurements comprise continuous monitoring of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, and ozone at five to eight different heights, complemented by a variety of additional species measured during intensive campaigns (e.g., VOC, NO, NO2, and OH reactivity). Aerosol optical, microphysical, and chemical measurements are being made above the canopy as well as in the canopy space. They include aerosol light scattering and absorption, fluorescence, number and volume size distributions, chemical composition, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations, and hygroscopicity. In this paper, we discuss the scientific context of the ATTO observatory and present an overview of results from ecological, meteorological, and chemical pilot studies at the ATTO site.

/pdf/the-amazon-tall-tower-observatory-atto-overview-of-pilot-maj151xjjs.pdf

The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO): overview of pilot measurements on ecosystem ecology, meteorology, trace gases, and aerosols

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO 2 and Land-use

Developing high-quality long-term data sets at uniform space–time resolution is essential for improved climate studies. This article processes the outputs from two global and regional climate models, the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) and the Regional Climate Model driven by the Hadley Centre Coupled Model (RegCM3). The results are bias-corrected time series of atmospheric variables corresponding to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC's) historical (20C3M) and future (A2) climate scenarios over the Amazon Basin. We use a series of simple but effective interpolation approaches to produce hourly climate data sets at 1° by 1° grid cells. A quantile-based mapping approach is used to reduce the biases of temperature and precipitation in CCSM3 and RegCM3. Adjustments are also made on specific humidity and downwelling longwave radiation to avoid inconsistency between those variables and bias-corrected temperature values. We also interpolated an already bias-corrected Parallel Climate Model data set (PCM1) from 3-hourly to the hourly resolution. The final climate data sets can be used as forcing of ecosystem and hydrologic models to study climate changes and impact assessments over the Amazon Basin.

S. L. McKnight

Papers

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO 2 and Land-use

Bias-corrected data sets of climate model outputs at uniform space–time resolution for land surface modelling over Amazonia