Journal ArticleDOI
The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.
Ke Zhang,Ke Zhang,Ke Zhang,Andrea D A Castanho,Andrea D A Castanho,David W. Galbraith,Sanaz Moghim,Naomi M. Levine,Naomi M. Levine,Rafael L. Bras,Michael T. Coe,Marcos Heil Costa,Yadvinder Malhi,Marcos Longo,Ryan G. Knox,S. L. McKnight,Jingfeng Wang,Paul R. Moorcroft +17 more
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TLDR
The results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation, and that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario.Abstract:
There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors – climate change, CO2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use – to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.read more
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Journal ArticleDOI
Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities.
Rosie A. Fisher,Charles D. Koven,William R. L. Anderegg,Bradley O. Christoffersen,Michael Dietze,Caroline E. Farrior,Jennifer A. Holm,George C. Hurtt,Ryan G. Knox,Peter Lawrence,Jeremy W. Lichstein,Marcos Longo,Ashley M. Matheny,David Medvigy,Helene C. Muller-Landau,Thomas L. Powell,Shawn P. Serbin,Hisashi Sato,Jacquelyn K. Shuman,Benjamin Smith,Anna T. Trugman,Toni Viskari,Hans Verbeeck,Ensheng Weng,Chonggang Xu,Xiangtao Xu,Tao Zhang,Paul R. Moorcroft +27 more
TL;DR: It is argued that stronger and more innovative connections to data are required to address gaps in understanding, and that constrained predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.
Journal ArticleDOI
Structural overshoot of tree growth with climate variability and the global spectrum of drought-induced forest dieback
Alistair S. Jump,Paloma Ruiz-Benito,Paloma Ruiz-Benito,Sarah Greenwood,Craig D. Allen,Thomas Kitzberger,Rod Fensham,Rod Fensham,Jordi Martínez-Vilalta,Francisco Lloret +9 more
TL;DR: It is shown that periods of favourable climatic and management conditions that facilitate abundant tree growth can lead to structural overshoot of aboveground tree biomass due to a subsequent temporal mismatch between water demand and availability, which expects forests to become increasingly structurally mismatched to water availability and thus overbuilt during more stressful episodes.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO): overview of pilot measurements on ecosystem ecology, meteorology, trace gases, and aerosols
Meinrat O. Andreae,Meinrat O. Andreae,Otávio C. Acevedo,Alessandro Araújo,Paulo Artaxo,Cybelli G. G. Barbosa,Henrique M. J. Barbosa,Joel Brito,Samara Carbone,Xuguang Chi,Bruno Barçante Ladvocat Cintra,N. F. da Silva,Nelson Luís Dias,Cléo Q. Dias-Júnior,Florian Ditas,Reiner Ditz,Ana F. L. Godoi,Ricardo H. M. Godoi,Martin Heimann,Thorsten Hoffmann,J. Kesselmeier,Tobias Könemann,M. L. Krüger,Jost V. Lavric,Antonio O. Manzi,Aline Pontes Lopes,Demétrius Lira Martins,Eugene Mikhailov,Eugene Mikhailov,Daniel Moran-Zuloaga,Bruce Walker Nelson,A. C. Nölscher,D. Santos Nogueira,Maria Teresa Fernandez Piedade,Christopher Pöhlker,Ulrich Pöschl,Carlos A. Quesada,Luciana V. Rizzo,Chul-Un Ro,Nina Ruckteschler,Leonardo D. A. Sá,M. de Oliveira Sá,C. B. Sales,R. M. N. dos Santos,Jorge Saturno,Jochen Schöngart,Jochen Schöngart,Matthias Sörgel,C. M. de Souza,C. M. de Souza,R. A. F. de Souza,Hang Su,Natalia Targhetta,Julio Tota,Ivonne Trebs,Susan E. Trumbore,A. van Eijck,David Walter,Zhibin Wang,Bettina Weber,Jonathan Williams,J. Winderlich,Florian Wittmann,Stefan Wolff,Stefan Wolff,Ana Maria Yáñez-Serrano,Ana Maria Yáñez-Serrano +66 more
TL;DR: The Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) as discussed by the authors is a tall tower observatory that provides a baseline record of present-day climatic, biogeochemical, and atmospheric conditions and that will be operated over coming decades to monitor change in the Amazon region.
Journal ArticleDOI
Sacred groves, sacrifice zones and soy production: globalization, intensification and neo-nature in South America
TL;DR: Soy has become one of the world's most important agroindustrial commodities serving as the nexus for the production of food, animal feed, fuel and hundreds of industrial products and South America has become its leading production region as discussed by the authors.
Journal ArticleDOI
The Impacts of Droughts in Tropical Forests
TL;DR: A better understanding of the mechanisms and processes involved to predict future responses of tropical forest carbon sequestration to climate change is urgently needed.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
A Biochemical Model of Photosynthetic CO 2 Assimilation in Leaves of C 3 Species
TL;DR: Various aspects of the biochemistry of photosynthetic carbon assimilation in C3 plants are integrated into a form compatible with studies of gas exchange in leaves.
Journal ArticleDOI
Empirical equations for some soil hydraulic properties
R. B. Clapp,George M. Hornberger +1 more
TL;DR: In this paper, a power function relating soil moisture and hydraulic conductivity is used to derive a formula for the wetting front suction required by the Green-Ampt equation.
Journal ArticleDOI
Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core
Laurent Augustin,Carlo Barbante,Piers R. F. Barnes,J. M. Barnola,Matthias Bigler,Emiliano Castellano,Olivier Cattani,Jérôme Chappellaz,Dorthe Dahl-Jensen,Barbara Delmonte,Gabrielle Dreyfus,Gaël Durand,S. Falourd,Hubertus Fischer,Jacqueline Flückiger,Margareta Hansson,Philippe Huybrechts,Gérard Jugie,Sigfus J Johnsen,Jean Jouzel,Patrik R Kaufmann,Josef Kipfstuhl,Fabrice Lambert,Vladimir Ya. Lipenkov,Geneviève C Littot,Antonio Longinelli,Reginald Lorrain,Valter Maggi,Valérie Masson-Delmotte,Heinz Miller,Robert Mulvaney,Johannes Oerlemans,Hans Oerter,Giuseppe Orombelli,Frédéric Parrenin,David A. Peel,J. R. Petit,Dominique Raynaud,Catherine Ritz,Urs Ruth,Jakob Schwander,Urs Siegenthaler,Roland Souchez,Bernhard Stauffer,Jørgen Peder Steffensen,Barbara Stenni,Thomas F. Stocker,Ignazio Tabacco,Roberto Udisti,Roderik S. W. van de Wal,Michiel R. van den Broeke,Jérôme Weiss,Frank Wilhelms,Jan-Gunnar Winther,Eric W. Wolff,Mario Zucchelli +55 more
TL;DR: The recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years is reported, suggesting that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.
Journal ArticleDOI
Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide
Corinne Le Quéré,Corinne Le Quéré,Michael R. Raupach,Josep G. Canadell,Gregg Marland,Laurent Bopp,Philippe Ciais,Thomas J. Conway,Scott C. Doney,Richard A. Feely,Pru N Foster,Pierre Friedlingstein,Kevin R. Gurney,Richard A. Houghton,Joanna Isobel House,Chris Huntingford,Peter Levy,Mark R. Lomas,Joseph D. Majkut,Nicolas Metzl,Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud Ometto,Glen P. Peters,I. Colin Prentice,James T. Randerson,Steven W. Running,Jorge L. Sarmiento,Ute Schuster,Stephen Sitch,Taro Takahashi,Nicolas Viovy,Guido R. van der Werf,F. Ian Woodward +31 more
TL;DR: In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely increased, from about 40% to 45%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake of CO 2 by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability as mentioned in this paper.
Journal ArticleDOI
Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents.
Sassan Saatchi,Nancy L. Harris,Sandra Brown,Michael A. Lefsky,Edward T. A. Mitchard,William Salas,Brian R. Zutta,Wolfgang Buermann,Simon L. Lewis,Stephen J. Hagen,Silvia Petrova,Lee J. T. White,Miles R. Silman,Alexandra C. Morel +13 more
TL;DR: A “benchmark” map of biomass carbon stocks over 2.5 billion ha of forests on three continents, encompassing all tropical forests, for the early 2000s is presented, which will be invaluable for REDD assessments at both project and national scales.
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