Genetics and analysis of quantitative traits

Beginning with Emlen (1966) and MacArthur and Pianka (1966) and extending through the last ten years, several authors have sought to predict the foraging behavior of animals by means of mathematical models. These models are very similar,in that they all assume that the fitness of a foraging animal is a function of the efficiency of foraging measured in terms of some "currency" (Schoener, 1971) -usually energy- and that natural selection has resulted in animals that forage so as to maximize this fitness. As a result of these similarities, the models have become known as "optimal foraging models"; and the theory that embodies them, "optimal foraging theory." The situations to which optimal foraging theory has been applied, with the exception of a few recent studies, can be divided into the following four categories: (1) choice by an animal of which food types to eat (i.e., optimal diet); (2) choice of which patch type to feed in (i.e., optimal patch choice); (3) optimal allocation of time to different patches; and (4) optimal patterns and speed of movements. In this review we discuss each of these categories separately, dealing with both the theoretical developments and the data that permit tests of the predictions. The review is selective in the sense that we emphasize studies that either develop testable predictions or that attempt to test predictions in a precise quantitative manner. We also discuss what we see to be some of the future developments in the area of optimal foraging theory and how this theory can be related to other areas of biology. Our general conclusion is that the simple models so far formulated are supported are supported reasonably well by available data and that we are optimistic about the value both now and in the future of optimal foraging theory. We argue, however, that these simple models will requre much modification, espicially to deal with situations that either cannot easily be put into one or another of the above four categories or entail currencies more complicated that just energy.

Citation classic - optimal foraging - a selective review of theory and tests

The boundary layer equations for plane, incompressible, and steady flow are 

$$\matrix{ {u{{\partial u} \over {\partial x}} + v{{\partial u} \over {\partial y}} = - {1 \over \varrho }{{\partial p} \over {\partial x}} + v{{{\partial ^2}u} \over {\partial {y^2}}},} \cr {0 = {{\partial p} \over {\partial y}},} \cr {{{\partial u} \over {\partial x}} + {{\partial v} \over {\partial y}} = 0.} \cr }$$

Boundary Layer Theory

A DNA test to sex most birds.

A Viking Lander 1 image was modeled as mixtures of reflectance spectra of palagonite dust, gray andesitelike rock, and a coarse rocklike soil. The rocks are covered to varying degrees by dust but otherwise appear unweathered. Rocklike soil occurs as lag deposits in deflation zones around stones and on top of a drift and as a layer in a trench dug by the lander. This soil probably is derived from the rocks by wind abrasion and/or spallation. Dust is the major component of the soil and covers most of the surface. The dust is unrelated spectrally to the rock but is equivalent to the global-scale dust observed telescopically. A new method was developed to model a multispectral image as mixtures of end-member spectra and to compare image spectra directly with laboratory reference spectra. The method for the first time uses shade and secondary illumination effects as spectral end-members; thus the effects of topography and illumination on all scales can be isolated or removed. The image was calibrated absolutely from the laboratory spectra, in close agreement with direct calibrations. The method has broad applications to interpreting multispectral images, including satellite images.

Spectral mixture modeling - A new analysis of rock and soil types at the Viking Lander 1 site. [on Mars]

Geographic variation in the population dynamics of a species can result from regional variability in climate and how it affects reproduction and survival. Identifying such effects for migratory birds requires the integration of population models with knowledge of migratory connectivity between breeding and nonbreeding areas. We used Bayesian hierarchical models with 26 years of Breeding Bird Survey data (1982-2007) to investigate the impacts of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on abundance of American Redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) across the species range. We focused on 15 populations defined by Bird Conservation Regions, and we included variation across routes and observers as well as temporal trends and climate effects. American Redstart populations that breed in eastern North America showed increased abundance following winters with higher plant productivity in the Caribbean where they are expected to overwinter. In contrast, western breeding populations showed little response to conditions in their expected wintering areas in west Mexico, perhaps reflecting lower migratory connectivity or differential effects of winter rainfall on individuals across the species range. Unlike the case with winter climate, we found few effects of temperature prior to arrival in spring (March-April) or during the nesting period (May-June) on abundance the following year. Eight populations showed significant changes in abundance, with the steepest declines in the Atlantic Northern Forest (-3.4%/yr) and the greatest increases in the Prairie Hardwood Transition (4%/yr). This study emphasizes how the effects of climate on populations of migratory birds are context dependent and can vary depending on geographic location and the period of the annual cycle. Such knowledge is essential for predicting regional variation in how populations of a species might vary in their response to climate change.

Range-wide effects of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on the abundance of a Neotropical migrant songbird.

Increasing evidence suggests that climate change affects the timing of breeding in birds, but there is less evidence to show how such changes affect the population dynamics of birds overall. Over the past 43 years, song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) on Mandarte Island, British Columbia, Canada have not shown an advance in breeding date in response to global warming. However, this population did show considerable annual variation in timing of breeding correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Birds bred earlier in warmer El Nino years and later in colder La Nina years. Early breeding strongly increased reproductive output. However, annual variation in timing of breeding had little effect on population growth, perhaps because the population is strongly regulated by the rate of recruitment by juveniles. The juvenile recruitment rate declined with increasing population density but showed little response to climate. These findings suggest that populations will vary in response to climate change depending on how climate affects the demographic parameters that contribute most to population growth.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/100/19/11139.full.pdf

El Nino drives timing of breeding but not population growth in the song sparrow (Melospiza melodia).

Nest survival may vary throughout the breeding season for many bird species, and the nature of this temporal variation can reveal the links between birds, their predators, and other components of the ecosystem. We used program Mark to model patterns in nest survival within the breeding season for shorebirds nesting on arctic tundra. From 2000 to 2007, we monitored 521 nests of five shorebird species and found strong evidence for variation in nest survival within a nesting season. Daily nest survival was lowest in the mid-season in 5 of 8 years, but the timing and magnitude of the lows varied. We found no evidence that this quadratic time effect was driven by seasonal changes in weather or the abundance of predators. Contrary to our prediction, the risk of predation was not greatest when the number of active shorebird nests was highest. Although nest abundance reached a maximum near the middle of the breeding season, a daily index of shorebird nest activity was not supported as a predictor of nest survival in the models. Predators’ access to other diet items, in addition to shorebird nests, may instead determine the temporal patterns of nest predation. Nest survival also displayed a positive, linear relationship with nest age; however, this effect was most pronounced among species with biparental incubation. Among biparental species, parents defended older nests with greater intensity. We did not detect a similar relationship among uniparental species, and conclude that the stronger relationship between nest age and both nest defence and nest survival for biparental species reflects that their nest defence is more effective.

Intraseasonal patterns in shorebird nest survival are related to nest age and defence behaviour

Predicting how populations respond to climate change requires an understanding of whether individuals or cohorts within populations vary in their response to climate variation. We used mixed-effects models on a song sparrow (Melospiza melodia) population in British Columbia, Canada, to examine differences among females and cohorts in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity in response to the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Climatic variables, age and population density were strong predictors of timing of breeding, but we also found considerable variation among individual females and cohorts. Within cohorts, females differed markedly in their breeding date and cohorts also differed in their average breeding date and breeding date plasticity. The plasticity of a cohort appeared to be due primarily to an interaction between the environmental conditions (climate and density) experienced at different ages rather than innate inter-cohort differences. Cohorts that expressed higher plasticity in breeding date experienced warmer El Nino springs in their second or third breeding season, suggesting that prior experience affects how well individuals responded to abnormal climatic conditions. Cohorts born into lower density populations also expressed higher plasticity in breeding date. Interactions between age, experience and environmental conditions have been reported previously for long-lived taxa. Our current results indicate that similar effects operate in a short-lived, temperate songbird.

/pdf/breeding-experience-and-population-density-affect-the-39pzrlihcz.pdf

Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation.

Nest predation is the most important factor limiting reproductive success of Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus), as it is for many bird species. Using program MARK, we examined patterns of daily nest survival in two widely separated populations of Willow Ptarmigan in Manitoba and British Columbia, Canada, by examining variation among years, over the course of the breeding season or in relation to the age of the nest, or age and condition of the female. At La Perouse Bay, Manitoba, daily nest survival increased linearly throughout the season, with moderate annual variation. Nests also had higher daily survival during laying and late in incubation, and lower survival early in incubation. At Chilkat Pass, British Columbia, daily nest survival varied strongly by year and nests had higher survival early and late in the season, but survival was not affected by the age of the nest. At both sites, but especially at Chilkat Pass, periods of lower nest survival tended to coincide with peak breeding periods...

/pdf/nest-survival-patterns-in-willow-ptarmigan-influence-of-time-1ofyujlxiq.pdf

Scott Wilson

Papers

Range-wide effects of breeding- and nonbreeding-season climate on the abundance of a Neotropical migrant songbird.

El Nino drives timing of breeding but not population growth in the song sparrow (Melospiza melodia).

Intraseasonal patterns in shorebird nest survival are related to nest age and defence behaviour

Breeding experience and population density affect the ability of a songbird to respond to future climate variation.

Nest survival patterns in willow ptarmigan: influence of time, nesting stage, and female characteristics