Considering a broad family of technologies where a measure of performance (MoP) is difficult or impossible to formulate, we seek an alternative measure that exhibits a regular pattern of evolution over time, similar to how a MoP may follow a Moore's law. In an empirical case study, we explore an approach to identifying such a composite measure called a Figure of Regularity (FoR). We use the proposed approach to identify a novel FoR for diverse classes of small arms - bows, crossbows, harquebuses, muskets, rifles, repeaters, and assault rifles - and show that this FoR agrees well with the empirical data. We identify a previously unreported regular trend in the FoR of an exceptionally long duration - from approximately 1200 CE to the present - and discuss how research managers can analyze long-term trends in conjunction with a portfolio of research directions.

Discovering a Regularity: the Case of An 800-year Law of Advances in Small-Arms Technologies

Ground Warfare in 2050: How It Might Look

Doing quantum ethics properly will require detailed socio-political analysis of the technologies and the organizations trying to build them. In this paper, I contribute to this task by analysing the public rhetoric of American military stakeholders in the quantum industry. I look at Air Force Research Laboratory involvement in the 2020 Quantum 2 Business conference, where they were the main sponsor. A critical thematic analysis shows a focus on enacting the violence of war, maintaining narratives that the Air Force provides a secure future for Americans, and marrying quantum technology with the aesthetics of war. I contextualize this with anti-imperialist theory, arguing that this rhetoric and the desire for quantum arms aligns with the reproduction of existing violent power structures. Insights about this example of military involvement in quantum spaces should help orient nascent critical quantum ethics interventions.

"Keep the fight unfair": Military rhetoric in quantum technology

Social computing blends computational techniques such as statistics, machine learning, text mining, and graph theory, with psychological and organizational theories of process and structure, and social science theories of membership, engagement and communication. The application of social computing approaches for assessing and shaping the sociocultural landscape within an area of operations is of growing interest to the defense and intelligence community. These approaches can enable the understanding of how patterns of relations among actors, their environment, and resources influence behavior, and how interventions might change those patterns so altering that behavior. Recently the Army conducted a Workshop on Social Computing Research at the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL). The purpose of the workshop was to understand the strengths and limits of current computational research applied to socially-created data while identifying critical research needs and opportunities of interest to the Army. We discuss several social computing strategies resulting from the workshop and propose a set of recommendations for integrating social computing in key ARL basic research science and technology objectives.

Social computing approaches and applications for defense and intelligence operations

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Shashi Karna

Papers

Potential Science and Technology Game Changers for the Ground Warfare of 2050: Selected Projections Made in 2017