Do countries with lower policy-induced barriers to international trade grow faster, once other relevant country characteristics are controlled for? There exists a large empirical literature providing an affirmative answer to this question. We argue that methodological problems with the empirical strategies employed in this literature leave the results open to diverse interpretations. In many cases, the indicators of openness used by researchers are poor measures of trade barriers or are highly correlated with other sources of bad economic performance. In other cases, the methods used to ascertain the link between trade policy and growth have serious shortcomings. Papers that we review include those by Dollar (1992), Ben-David (1993), Sachs and Warner (1995), Edwards (1998), and Frankel and Romer (1999). We find little evidence that open trade policies-in the sense of lower tariff and nontariff barriers to trade-are significantly associated with economic growth.

Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence

A wide variety of work in social science concerns sequences of events or phenomena. This essay reviews concepts of sequence and methods for analyzing sequences. After a brief definitional discussion, I consider sequence literatures from various areas. I then discuss recent methodologies for sequence analysis. I review stepwise approaches like Markovian and event history analysis as well as whole sequence approaches resting on new developments in biology and other fields.

Sequence analysis: new methods for old ideas

T h e worlds major powers and the United Nations (UN) are increasingly using economic sanctions to achieve international political objectives. For example, the United Nations recently imposed sanctions to force Iraq out of Kuwait, to compel Serbia to stop aiding the Bosnian rebels, to topple the Haitian military, and to end apartheid. Similarly, the United States has threatened to punish China economically for human rights abuses and has tightened its long-standing embargo of Cuba. From 1991 to 1994 the UN Security Council imposed mandatory sanctions eight times, compared to only twice from 1945 to 1990.' A critical signal that faith in economic sanctions continues to grow was given in January 1995, when then-UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali prop s e d the creation of a new UN agency to monitor the implementation of economic sanctions and to assess in advance the likely effectiveness of contemplated sanctions? Military instruments are often thought to be the only effective means for achieving ambitious foreign policy goals like taking or defending territory, altering a state's military behavior, and changing a state's regime or internal political structure. Since World War I, however, economic sanctions have come to be viewed as the liberal alternative to war.3 From crises involving the League of Nations before World War I1 to disputes involving the United Nations today, proponents typically argue that economic sanctions can often be as effective as military force and are more humane. As David Baldwin has stated, \"Reasonable people may differ with respect to the utility of

Why Economic Sanctions Do Not Work

The article reviews empirical studies of international migration within the North American migratory system in order to evaluate the various theories that seek to explain the initiation and perpetuation of international movement. The review uncovers significant support for all theories suggesting that they constitute complementary rather than competing explanations of migration. One criticism is that far too much research is focused on Mexico whose unique relationship to the United States may make it unrepresentative of broader patterns and trends in migration. After discussing salient gaps in the research record and outlining promising directions for future study the article attempts to construct a comprehensive model for understanding immigration into North America. (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA) (EXCERPT)

An evaluation of international migration theory: the North American case.

Ideas with regard to trade policy and economic development have changed radically since the 1950s. Then and now, it was recognized that trade policy was central to the overall design of policies for economic development. But in the early days, there was a broad consensus that trade policy for development should be based on `import-substitution.' By this was meant that domestic production of import-competing goods should be started and increased to satisfy the domestic market under incentives provided through whatever level of protection against imports, or even import prohibitions, was necessary to achieve it. It was thought that import substitution in manufactures would be synonymous with industrialization, which in turn was seen as the key to deve- lopment. The contrast with views today is striking. It is now widely accepted that growth prospects for developing countries are greatly enhanced through an outer-oriented trade regime and fairly uniform incentives (primarily through the exchange rate) for production across exporting and import competing goods. This paper addresses the changes in thought and policy. What was the contribu- tion of economic research to the sea change in thinking, policy prescriptions, and politicians' acceptance of the need for reform? What sorts of economic research best informed the policy process? In a nutshell, how did we learn? In this paper, I first sketch the initial approach to trade policy in early development research and thought. Next, consideration is given to the evolu- tion of thought, research, and experience with respect to trade and develop- ment over the next several decades, and to the `conventional wisdom' of the 1990s. Finally, the role of research and the sorts of research that proved most fruitful in guiding policy and changing the consensus is considered.

Trade Policy and Economic Development: How We Learn

Economic Stabilization in Developing Countries

The relationship between Mexico and the United States has never been an easy one. Mexicans often approach the relationship based on resentment of their rich and powerful neighbor, while U.S. attitudes and policy often seem formed under the aegis of what Octavio Paz has called "the twin sisters of ignorance and arrogance." In this comprehensive account of recent developments in the relationship, and the way in which internal developments in each country have affected the other, Sidney Weintraub helps dispel any doubt about each country's importance to the other-- and hence the importance of relations based on mutual respect and a realistic assessment of each other's needs. Adding to the difficulties is the enormous disparity in wealth between the two countries, together with differences in cultural and historical traditions. Public officials in each country have a perceived need to formulate policy on the basis of its appeal to domestic prejudices. Weintraub shows how misunderstandings growing out of these tendencies have exacerbated substantive problems between Mexico and the United States of trade, foreign debt, industrial development, unemployment and migration, drug trafficking, and environmental despoliation. He offers recommendations for arriving at solutions beneficial to both countries. The chapters on relations at the border and on migration patterns between the two countries make particularly clear that cultural and economic integration have grown rapidly, often in spite of official policies in both countries designed to keep this from happening, and point to a future of more rather than less interdependence. This book provides a solid framework for discussion of how best to negotiate this increasing--and crucial--integration.

A Marriage of Convenience: Relations Between Mexico and the United States

This is one in a series presenting essays by various authors on the relationship between development and international migration. The focus of this volume is on the growth of small businesses in the Caribbean and Central America. It "offers an analysis of the employment and income potential of the small business sector in a number of migrant-sending countries. Contributing authors evaluate programs that support the sector and give recommendations for improving their effectiveness. Several seek to explain why most countries in the region have not made the most of remittance income to create employment. Finally others examine the imperfectly understood linkages between remittances and small businesses." (EXCERPT)

Migration, remittances, and small business development : Mexico and Caribbean Basin countries

NAFTA at Three: A Progress Report

A 1982-1983 survey of 868 undocumented aliens and a number of providers of public services showed that the state of Texas receives more from taxes paid by undocumented persons than it costs the state to provide them with public services such as education health care corrections and welfare. The same survey showed that 6 cities in the state (Austin Dallas El Paso Houston McAllen and San Antonio) together expended more to provide services to undocumented aliens than they received in taxes. The survey concentrated on undocumented persons not detained by the immigration authorities and found that this group constituted a distinct population from those in detention centers in that the former exhibited normal characteristics of settled families while the latter were predominantly the familiar young single and peripatetic males. A related finding is that the households of the transient group consist predominantly of undocumented persons whereas the households of the settled group contain a greater mixture of legal residents and illegal aliens. Undocumented persons do indeed use public services primarily education and health services. They are rarely recipients of welfare services or food stamps. Undocumented persons do indeed pay taxes and those taxes that go to or revert to the state of Texas clearly exceed the cost to the state to provide services to those people. On the other hand local governmental units (below the state level) in Texas must expend more to provide public services to illegal aliens than those governmental levels receive from the taxes paid by these persons. This is an administrative issue relating to the recipients of tax dollars and the government level on which the burden falls to provide certain services primarily health care and education. Finally since only about half of the settled population is in the job market in Texas a quick fix of deportation of these persons would not create an equivalent number of jobs.

Sidney Weintraub

Papers

Economic Stabilization in Developing Countries

A Marriage of Convenience: Relations Between Mexico and the United States

Migration, remittances, and small business development : Mexico and Caribbean Basin countries

NAFTA at Three: A Progress Report

Illegal immigrants in Texas: impact on social services and related considerations.