System Identification I

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Multivariate Data Analysis With Readings

The system frequency response (SFR) model describes the average network frequency response after a disturbance and has been applied to a wide variety of dynamic studies. However, the traditional literature does not provide a generic, analytical method for obtaining the SFR model parameters when the system contains multiple generators; instead, a numerical simulation-based approach or the operators’ experience is the common practice to obtain an aggregated model. In this paper, an analytical method is proposed for aggregating the multi-machine SFR model into a single-machine model. The verification study indicates that the proposed aggregated SFR model can accurately represent the multi-machine SFR model. Furthermore, the detailed system simulation illustrates that the SFR model can also accurately represent the average frequency response of large systems for power system dynamic studies. Finally, three applications of the proposed method are explored, with system frequency control, frequency stability, and dynamic model reduction. The results show the method is promising with broad potential applications.

Analytical Method to Aggregate Multi-Machine SFR Model With Applications in Power System Dynamic Studies

This study presents a method of estimating the effective inertia of a power system from ambient frequency and active power signals measured by phasor measurement units. Most importantly, we demonstrate that inertia can be estimated from ambient measurement data, not only from disturbances. This leads to the possibility of monitoring inertia in a close to continuous manner in the time scale of minutes or tens of minutes. The method allows the system to be divided into a number of areas and the effective inertia of each area to be estimated as a separate quantity. In principle, inertia is estimated by observing the dynamics between changes in active power and resulting frequency deviations during normal operation of the system. The method is based on applying system identification on these measurements and extracting inertia values from identified models. Efficacy of the method is demonstrated on results of real measurements from the Icelandic power system.

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Estimation of Power System Inertia From Ambient Wide Area Measurements

In-depth security analyses of power systems (PSs) require to consider the vulnerabilities to natural and human-related threats, which may cause multiple dependent contingencies. On the other hand, such events often lead to high impact on the system, so that decision-making aimed to enhance security may become difficult. Introducing the uncertainty, the risk associated to each contingency can be evaluated, thus allowing to perform effective contingency ranking. This paper describes an in-depth security assessment methodology, based on an “extended” definition of risk (including threats, vulnerability, contingency, and impact) aimed to perform the risk assessment of the integrated power and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) systems. The results of the application to test cases and realistic PSs show the added value of the proposed approach with respect to conventional security analyses in dealing with uncertainty of threats, vulnerabilities, and system response.

Probabilistic Risk-Based Security Assessment of Power Systems Considering Incumbent Threats and Uncertainties

An open data repository and a data processing software toolset of an equivalent Nordic grid model matched to historical electricity market data

A comprehensive analysis of reliability of electricity supply to end users requires a unique set of models, methods and tools. Of special significance are long term power market models for predicting future operating states (generation and load patterns) and more detailed network simulation models for analysing consequences of contingencies. This paper describes an integrated approach for reliability of supply analysis, assessing reliability and interruption costs down to the specifics of different kinds of end users at different delivery points in the network model. Furthermore, the effects of power system protection, temporal variation of parameters, and corrective actions as part of the consequence analysis, are taken into account in the presented integrated approach. The results are illustrated through a case study on a realistic hydro dominated four-area meshed test system.

Enhanced method for reliability of supply assessment - an integrated approach

The paper presents the first findings from workpackage "Increased Observability" in EU FP7 project ELECTRA. Accommodation of intermittent generation into the network and its reliable operation require a gradual evolution of the network structure and in particular improvement of its monitoring or observing. The present practices of observing distribution networks are quite limited and vary from country to country. New network architectures are expected to evolve in the close future, including web-of-cells (concept defined in ELECTRA), which will result in new control schemes, significantly different from the existing. Several new observability needs have to be met in order to secure operation of the future networks.

/pdf/future-control-architecture-and-emerging-observability-needs-3efp36x2j5.pdf

Future control architecture and emerging observability needs

A graph-based modelling framework for vulnerability analysis of critical sequences of events in power systems

Customer interruption costs depend not only on customer characteristics and interruption duration, but also on the time of interruption. Time-dependent costs are incorporated in the Norwegian quality of supply regulation. New cost data are proposed from 2015. This paper demonstrates the importance of taking the time dependencies in the interruption cost and the time-dependent correlation with other parameters into account. Ignoring these time dependencies may lead to wrong cost signals in the quality of supply regulation. A time-varying reliability model is used to investigate the influence of time dependencies and the impact of changing the cost data for a small example network with different customer sectors. It is shown that ignoring the time-dependent correlation leads to underestimation of the expected annual interruption costs.

http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/iel7/6937463/6960577/06960620.pdf

Sigurd Hofsmo Jakobsen

Papers

An open data repository and a data processing software toolset of an equivalent Nordic grid model matched to historical electricity market data

Enhanced method for reliability of supply assessment - an integrated approach

Future control architecture and emerging observability needs

A graph-based modelling framework for vulnerability analysis of critical sequences of events in power systems

Interruption costs and time dependencies in quality of supply regulation