计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

行銷硏究 : Marketing research

Understanding customer experience and the customer journey over time is critical for firms. Customers now interact with firms through myriad touch points in multiple channels and media, and customer experiences are more social in nature. These changes require firms to integrate multiple business functions, and even external partners, in creating and delivering positive customer experiences. In this article, the authors aim to develop a stronger understanding of customer experience and the customer journey in this era of increasingly complex customer behavior. To achieve this goal, they examine existing definitions and conceptualizations of customer experience as a construct and provide a historical perspective of the roots of customer experience within marketing. Next, they attempt to bring together what is currently known about customer experience, customer journeys, and customer experience management. Finally, they identify critical areas for future research on this important topic.

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Understanding Customer Experience Throughout the Customer Journey

textMarketing researchers often assume that innovation diffusion is affected by social contagion. However, there is increasing skepticism about the importance of contagion and, as has long been known, S-shaped diffusion curves can also result from heterogeneity in the propensity to adopt. To gain insight into the role of these two different—though not mutually exclusive—mechanisms, we present substantive conjectures about conditions under which contagion and heterogeneity are more pronounced, and test these conjectures using a meta-analysis of the q/p ratio in applications of the Bass diffusion model. We find that the q/p ratio is positively associated with the Gini index of income inequality in a country, supporting the heterogeneity-in-thresholds interpretation. We also find evidence that q/p varies as predicted by the G/SG diffusion model, but the evidence vanishes once we control for national culture. As to contagion, we find that the q/p ratio varies systematically with the four Hofstede dimensions of national culture, and for three of them in a pattern theoretically consistent with the social contagion interpretation. Furthermore, we find that products with competing standards have a higher q/p ratio, which is again consistent with the social contagion interpretation. Finally, we find effects of national culture only for products without competing standards, suggesting that technological effects and culturally mediated social contagion effects may not operate independently from each other.

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Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test

The authors introduce a new method, prospective meta-analysis in marketing (PMM), to estimate consumer response to online advertising on a large and adaptive scale. They illustrate their approach in a field study in the U.S., China and the Netherlands, covering equivalent ad content on social media, online video, display banner, and search engines. The authors tested a conceptual framework based on attention and engagement using a technological solution that allow them to observe participants browsing and clicking activity in depth from their own residences, offices, or places of choice to use the tested media platforms, e.g., Facebook, Weibo, Google, Baidu and others. The authors show how consumers respond differently to the same ad depending on how distant they are from purchase, and uncover which channels are most appropriate to which user at different stages of the funnel. They also show how engagement and attention strengthen consumer response to advertising. The authors show how PMM produces exploratory findings, confirmatory findings, and replications by systematically organizing the incremental exploration of complex phenomena with cycles of discovery and validation.

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A New Method of Measuring Online Media Advertising Effectiveness: Prospective Meta-Analysis in Marketing

Prior international segmentation studies are static, i.e., they identify segments that are stable over time. This paper shows that country segments in new product growth are intrinsically dynamic. We propose a semiparametric hidden Markov model to dynamically segment countries based on the observed penetration pattern of new product categories. The methodology allows countries to switch between segments over the new product's life cycle, with time-varying transition probabilities. Our approach is based on penalized splines and can thus be flexibly applied to any non-stationary phenomenon, beyond the new product growth context.For the penetration of six new product categories in 79 countries, we recover each country’s dynamic membership to segments over the life cycle. Our findings reveal substantial dynamics in international market segmentation, in particular at the beginning of the product life. Finally, we exploit the dynamic segments to predict the national penetration patterns of a new product before its launch and show that our forecasts outperform forecasts derived from alternate parametric and/or static methods. Our results encourage multinational corporations to adopt dynamic segmentation methods instead of static ones.

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Stefan Stremersch

Papers

Contagion and heterogeneity in new product diffusion: An emperical test

A New Method of Measuring Online Media Advertising Effectiveness: Prospective Meta-Analysis in Marketing

Dynamics in International Market Segmentation of New Product Growth