From the Publisher:
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems is a complete andaccessible account of the theoretical foundations and computational methods that underlie plausible reasoning under uncertainty. The author provides a coherent explication of probability as a language for reasoning with partial belief and offers a unifying perspective on other AI approaches to uncertainty, such as the Dempster-Shafer formalism, truth maintenance systems, and nonmonotonic logic. The author distinguishes syntactic and semantic approaches to uncertaintyand offers techniques, based on belief networks, that provide a mechanism for making semantics-based systems operational. Specifically, network-propagation techniques serve as a mechanism for combining the theoretical coherence of probability theory with modern demands of reasoning-systems technology: modular declarative inputs, conceptually meaningful inferences, and parallel distributed computation. Application areas include diagnosis, forecasting, image interpretation, multi-sensor fusion, decision support systems, plan recognition, planning, speech recognitionin short, almost every task requiring that conclusions be drawn from uncertain clues and incomplete information.
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems will be of special interest to scholars and researchers in AI, decision theory, statistics, logic, philosophy, cognitive psychology, and the management sciences. Professionals in the areas of knowledge-based systems, operations research, engineering, and statistics will find theoretical and computational tools of immediate practical use. The book can also be used as an excellent text for graduate-level courses in AI, operations research, or applied probability.

Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference

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It is important that the medical profession play a significant role in critically evaluating the use of diagnostic procedures and therapies as they are introduced in the detection, management,

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ACC/AHA 2006 Guidelines for the Management of Patients With Valvular Heart Disease

This book presents the definitive exposition of 'prospect theory', a compelling alternative to the classical utility theory of choice. Building on the 1982 volume, Judgement Under Uncertainty, this book brings together seminal papers on prospect theory from economists, decision theorists, and psychologists, including the work of the late Amos Tversky, whose contributions are collected here for the first time. While remaining within a rational choice framework, prospect theory delivers more accurate, empirically verified predictions in key test cases, as well as helping to explain many complex, real-world puzzles. In this volume, it is brought to bear on phenomena as diverse as the principles of legal compensation, the equity premium puzzle in financial markets, and the number of hours that New York cab drivers choose to drive on rainy days. Theoretically elegant and empirically robust, this volume shows how prospect theory has matured into a new science of decision making.

Choices, Values, and Frames

Users of clinical practice guidelines and other recommendations need to know how much confidence they can place in the recommendations Systematic and explicit methods of making judgments can reduce errors and improve communication We have developed a system for grading the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations that can be applied across a wide range of interventions and contexts In this article we present a summary of our approach from the perspective of a guideline user Judgments about the strength of a recommendation require consideration of the balance between benefits and harms, the quality of the evidence, translation of the evidence into specific circumstances, and the certainty of the baseline risk It is also important to consider costs (resource utilisation) before making a recommendation Inconsistencies among systems for grading the quality of evidence and the strength of recommendations reduce their potential to facilitate critical appraisal and improve communication of these judgments Our system for guiding these complex judgments balances the need for simplicity with the need for full and transparent consideration of all important issues

/pdf/grading-quality-of-evidence-and-strength-of-recommendations-4juchvwoau.pdf

Grading quality of evidence and strength of recommendations.

We discuss the cognitive and the psy- chophysical determinants of choice in risky and risk- less contexts. The psychophysics of value induce risk aversion in the domain of gains and risk seeking in the domain of losses. The psychophysics of chance induce overweighting of sure things and of improbable events, relative to events of moderate probability. De- cision problems can be described or framed in multiple ways that give rise to different preferences, contrary to the invariance criterion of rational choice. The pro- cess of mental accounting, in which people organize the outcomes of transactions, explains some anomalies of consumer behavior. In particular, the acceptability of an option can depend on whether a negative outcome is evaluated as a cost or as an uncompensated loss. The relation between decision values and experience values is discussed. Making decisions is like speaking prose—people do it all the time, knowingly or unknowingly. It is hardly surprising, then, that the topic of decision making is shared by many disciplines, from mathematics and statistics, through economics and political science, to sociology and psychology. The study of decisions ad- dresses both normative and descriptive questions. The normative analysis is concerned with the nature of rationality and the logic of decision making. The de- scriptive analysis, in contrast, is concerned with peo- ple's beliefs and preferences as they are, not as they should be. The tension between normative and de- scriptive considerations characterizes much of the study of judgment and choice. Analyses of decision making commonly distin- guish risky and riskless choices. The paradigmatic example of decision under risk is the acceptability of a gamble that yields monetary outcomes with specified probabilities. A typical riskless decision concerns the acceptability of a transaction in which a good or a service is exchanged for money or labor. In the first part of this article we present an analysis of the cog- nitive and psychophysical factors that determine the value of risky prospects. In the second part we extend this analysis to transactions and trades. Risky Choice Risky choices, such as whether or not to take an umbrella and whether or not to go to war, are made without advance knowledge of their consequences. Because the consequences of such actions depend on uncertain events such as the weather or the opponent's resolve, the choice of an act may be construed as the acceptance of a gamble that can yield various out- comes with different probabilities. It is therefore nat- ural that the study of decision making under risk has focused on choices between simple gambles with monetary outcomes and specified probabilities, in the hope that these simple problems will reveal basic at- titudes toward risk and value. We shall sketch an approach to risky choice that

http://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/0003-066X.39.4.341

Objective. —To examine the cost-effectiveness of approaches to the diagnosis and treatment of patients with type II (non—insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus (NIDDM) who have foot infections and suspected osteomyelitis. Design. —Decision and cost-effectiveness analyses were performed using a Markov model. We examined the prevalence of osteomyelitis, the major complications and efficacies of long-term antibiotic therapy and surgery, and the performance characteristics of four diagnostic tests (roentgenography, technetium Tc 99m bone scanning, indium In 111—labeled white blood cell scanning, and magnetic resonance imaging). Data were drawn from the English-language literature using MEDLINE searches and bibliographies from selected articles. Setting. —Primary care. Patients. —Patients with NIDDM who had foot infections and suspected osteomyelitis but no signs of systemic toxicity. Interventions. —Following hospitalization for surgical debridement and intravenous antibiotic therapy: (1) treatment for presumed soft-tissue infection, (2) culture-guided empiric treatment for presumed osteomyelitis, (3) 71 combinations of diagnostic tests preceding antibiotic therapy for osteomyelitis, (4) 71 combinations of tests preceding amputation, and (5) immediate amputation. Main Outcome Measures. —Quality-adjusted life expectancy, average costs. Results. —Culture-guided empiric treatment for osteomyelitis with 10 weeks of oral antibiotic therapy has similar effectiveness to testing followed by a long course of antibiotic therapy if any test result is positive. However, empiric treatment is the least expensive strategy. Conclusions. —Noninvasive testing adds significant expense to the treatment of patients with NIDDM in whom pedal osteomyelitis is suspected, and such testing may result in little improvement in health outcomes. In patients without systemic toxicity, a 10-week course of culture-guided oral antibiotic therapy following surgical debridement may be as effective as and less costly than other approaches. (JAMA. 1995;273:712-720)

https://jamanetwork.com/HttpHandlers/ArticlePdfHandler.ashx?journal=jama&articleId=387277&pdfFileName=jama_273_9_035.pdf

Foot Infections in Diabetic Patients: Decision and Cost-effectiveness Analyses

Objectives. —To determine the extent to which interinstitutional variations in length of stay are explained by differences in patient characteristics and to determine whether patients in hospitals with shorter lengths of stay had worse outcomes. Design. —We reviewed patients' medical records and surveyed patients between 3 and 12 months after hospital discharge using a questionnaire. Setting. —Six teaching hospitals in California and Massachusetts. Patients. —A cohort of 2484 selected patients who had been hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction or to rule out acute myocardial infarction, coronary artery bypass graft surgery, total hip replacement, cholecystectomy, or transurethral prostatectomy. Between 73% and 84% of the patients with each condition completed a follow-up questionnaire. Outcome Measures. —In-hospital complications, deaths, length of stay, functional status after hospital discharge, readmission, and patient satisfaction with hospital care were analyzed. Results. —Significant interinstitutional differences in length of stay were noted for all conditions except rule-out acute myocardial infarction. Statistical adjustment for case-mix differences accounted for most of the interinstitutional differences in length of stay for total hip replacement but explained little of the differences in the other conditions. When we controlled statistically for other predictors, length of stay did not have a significant impact on deaths, functional status after hospital discharge, the probability of readmission, or patient satisfaction with hospital care. Conclusion. —More research is needed to determine the medical practices that are related to variations in lengths of stay. Routinely available outcome data may help preserve quality in the face of efforts to decrease costs by effecting more standardized practices of care. (JAMA. 1991;266:73-79)

Variations in Length of Stay and Outcomes for Six Medical and Surgical Conditions in Massachusetts and California

Valvular and Structural Heart Disease: American College of Chest Physicians Evidence-Based Clinical Practice Guidelines (8th Edition)

Objective: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of interferon-α2B for the treatment of patients with chronic hepatitis B infection who are positive for hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg). Design: Meta-ana...

Stephen G. Pauker

Papers

Foot Infections in Diabetic Patients: Decision and Cost-effectiveness Analyses

Variations in Length of Stay and Outcomes for Six Medical and Surgical Conditions in Massachusetts and California

Valvular and Structural Heart Disease: American College of Chest Physicians Evidence-Based Clinical Practice Guidelines (8th Edition)

Cost-effectiveness of Interferon-α2b Treatment for Hepatitis B e Antigen-Positive Chronic Hepatitis B

Grades of Recommendation for Antithrombotic Agents