Technological growth curves. A competition of forecasting models

Market penetration by new innovations: The technological literature

This paper is intended to forecast Fuel cell technology using patent literature and technological growth curve models. Technology maturity of the Fuel cell technology is determined from the forecast. Patent data pertaining to Fuel cell technology is extracted from United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) from 1976 to 2012. Fuel cell technology patents are grouped with the help of International Patent Classification (IPC) classes. A demographic analysis is done on World patents pertaining to Fuel cell technology to identify important patent groups and variables for modelling. From the literature study various growth curves in particular Logistic, Gompertz and Weibull Curves are considered to forecast the Fuel cell technology. The upper limit used in this analysis is defined and a formula to evaluate the same is proposed. An algorithm already existing in the literature is used to find the starting year or base year of the normalized cumulative frequency of patent grants plot. After the anal...

Stephen K. Conver

Papers

The step-wise growth of electric generators size