计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

How has Japan become a major economic power, a world leader in the automotive and electronics industries? What is the secret of their success? The consensus has been that, though the Japanese are not particularly innovative, they are exceptionally skilful at imitation, at improving products that already exist. But now two leading Japanese business experts, Ikujiro Nonaka and Hiro Takeuchi, turn this conventional wisdom on its head: Japanese firms are successful, they contend, precisely because they are innovative, because they create new knowledge and use it to produce successful products and technologies. Examining case studies drawn from such firms as Honda, Canon, Matsushita, NEC, 3M, GE, and the U.S. Marines, this book reveals how Japanese companies translate tacit to explicit knowledge and use it to produce new processes, products, and services.

The knowledge-creating company : how Japanese companies create the dynamics of innovation

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

What makes organizations so similar? We contend that the engine of rationalization and bureaucratization has moved from the competitive marketplace to the state and the professions. Once a set of organizations emerges as a field, a paradox arises: rational actors make their organizations increasingly similar as they try to change them. We describe three isomorphic processes-coercive, mimetic, and normative—leading to this outcome. We then specify hypotheses about the impact of resource centralization and dependency, goal ambiguity and technical uncertainty, and professionalization and structuration on isomorphic change. Finally, we suggest implications for theories of organizations and social change.

The iron cage revisited: Institutional isomorphism and collective rationality in organizational fields (Chinese Translation)

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity – which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common-method variance, and measurement error – renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation could be confounded; these methods include fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66% and up to 90% of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

On making causal claims : A review and recommendations

Modular design practices provide a lens on the link among product architecture, imitation, and the dynamic capabilities that sustain long-term performance. Looking at closed product systems, we propose that simplified links between design and performance outcomes in modular environments facilitate imitation. The same reduction in complexity drives development of dynamic capabilities. These take the form of more rapid and reliable search processes for incremental and radical innovations. The scope and timing of a firm's modular strategy influence the development of these capabilities, which are critical to sustainable modular performance advantages.

https://www.pitt.edu/~fritspil/pil%20and%20cohen%20AMR.pdf

Modularity: Implications for Imitation, Innovation, and Sustained Advantage

Academic Summary
The knowledge based view suggests that complex problems are best solved under hierarchical (within firm) governance. We examined why firms assumed to be in general alignment with this theory might nonetheless produce solutions of varying usefulness. We theorize that a firm's internal knowledge variety (IKV) is associated with its capacity to support cross domain knowledge flows during search, and its ability to identify and explore promising areas on the solution landscape. We further theorize that partner knowledge in familiar (unfamiliar) domains can offset specific weaknesses in searching rugged landscapes, inherent with low or high (moderate) IKV. We find support for these ideas in the context of drug discovery, extending KBV’s focus on governance alignment to explain variation in problem solving effectiveness within hierarchy.

Managerial Summary
Firms that concentrate their inventive efforts in a few technological domains, but also dabble in several others, have problem solving advantages: they can better support knowledge transfer and recombination across domains. Firms that focus too narrowly or spread their inventive efforts thinly across many domains lose these advantages but might compensate through alliance partnerships. Our study of drug discovery shows that while firms with very low or high knowledge variety tend to produce weaker solutions than firms in the moderate range, their inventive performance improves when alliance partners afford them access to additional knowledge in familiar domains. We explain how the combination of firm and partner knowledge enables firms to better identify, evaluate, and implement alternative solutions to complex problems.

Firm heterogeneity in complex problem solving: A knowledge-based look at invention

We investigate how firms' exploratory and exploitative invention can lead to breakthrough innovations, and how heterogeneous knowledge available to firms through their R&D alliance network moderates this relationship. Using panel data of U.S. biopharmaceutical firms, we find that emphasis on exploitative invention has a stronger positive effect on breakthrough innovation than does a firm's emphasis on exploratory invention. Furthermore, heterogeneous knowledge available in firms' R&D alliance network increases the number of breakthrough innovations, up to a point, and then it begins to exert a negative effect. Interestingly, engaging alliance partners with heterogeneous knowledge strengthens the positive effect of exploitative invention on a firm's production of breakthrough innovations.

Converting inventions into breakthrough innovations

Research summary: We investigate the effect of incumbents' stock of downstream complementary assets on their product innovation during a disruptive technological change. We theorize that a firm's stock of downstream complementary assets, by providing critical information about shifting demand conditions, will play a catalytic role in firm adaptation during such a change. Using the advent of disruptive computer numerical control machine tools in the U.S. machine tool industry during the 1970s and 1980s as the context, we find that firms with greater stocks of downstream complementary assets are likely to be product innovation leaders during such a change.

Managerial summary: Disruptive changes are challenging firms across industries. We concentrate on the U.S. machine tool industry during the 1970s and 1980s when Japanese manufacturers with disruptive computer numerical control systems challenged the U.S. manufacturers. We find that, under the threat of disruption, the greater the stock of downstream complementary assets a U.S. machine tool manufacturer has, the more likely it is to be the product innovation leader with the disruptive technology. Our findings provide novel insights for managers in companies that face disruptive changes and can help them avoid the consequences of such changes as predicted by prior research. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Susan K. Cohen

Papers

Modularity: Implications for Imitation, Innovation, and Sustained Advantage

Firm heterogeneity in complex problem solving: A knowledge-based look at invention

Converting inventions into breakthrough innovations

Stock of downstream complementary assets as a catalyst for product innovation during technological change in the U.S. machine tool industry

Disruption in the US machine tool industry: The role of inhouse users and pre-disruption component experience in firm response