计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

NUDGE: IMPROVING DECISIONS ABOUT HEALTH, WEALTH, AND HAPPINESS by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein Penguin Books, 2009, 312 pp, ISBN 978-0-14-311526-7This book is best described formally as a general explanation of and advocacy for libertarian paternalism, a term coined by the authors in earlier publications. Informally, it is about how leaders, systems, organizations, and governments can nudge people to do the things the nudgers want and need done for the betterment of the nudgees, or of society. It is paternalism in the sense that "it is legitimate for choice architects to try to influence people's behavior in order to make their lives longer, healthier, and better", (p. 5) It is libertarian in that "people should be free to do what they like - and to opt out of undesirable arrangements if they want to do so", (p. 5) The built-in possibility of opting out or making a different choice preserves freedom of choice even though people's behavior has been influenced by the nature of the presentation of the information or by the structure of the decisionmaking system. I had never heard of libertarian paternalism before reading this book, and I now find it fascinating.Written for a general audience, this book contains mostly social and behavioral science theory and models, but there is considerable discussion of structure and process that has roots in mathematical and quantitative modeling. One of the main applications of this social system is economic choice in investing, selecting and purchasing products and services, systems of taxes, banking (mortgages, borrowing, savings), and retirement systems. Other quantitative social choice systems discussed include environmental effects, health care plans, gambling, and organ donations. Softer issues that are also subject to a nudge-based approach are marriage, education, eating, drinking, smoking, influence, spread of information, and politics. There is something in this book for everyone.The basis for this libertarian paternalism concept is in the social theory called "science of choice", the study of the design and implementation of influence systems on various kinds of people. The terms Econs and Humans, are used to refer to people with either considerable or little rational decision-making talent, respectively. The various libertarian paternalism concepts and systems presented are tested and compared in light of these two types of people. Two foundational issues that this book has in common with another book, Network of Echoes: Imitation, Innovation and Invisible Leaders, that was also reviewed for this issue of the Journal are that 1 ) there are two modes of thinking (or components of the brain) - an automatic (intuitive) process and a reflective (rational) process and 2) the need for conformity and the desire for imitation are powerful forces in human behavior. …

Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness

Economics Of Discrimination

Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreactions

Effect sizes are underappreciated and often misinterpreted—the most common mistakes being to describe them in ways that are uninformative (e.g., using arbitrary standards) or misleading (e.g., squa...

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2515245919847202

Evaluating Effect Size in Psychological Research: Sense and Nonsense:

We decompose currency returns into (permanent) intrinsic-value shocks and (transitory) expected-return shocks. We explore interactions between these shocks, currency returns, and institutional-investor currency flows. Intrinsic-value shocks are: dwarfed by expected-return shocks (yet currency returns overreact to them); unrelated to flows (although expected-return shocks correlate with flows); and related positively to forecasted cumulated-interest differentials. These results suggest flows are related to short-term currency returns, while fundamentals better explain long-term returns and values. They also rationalize the long-observed poor performance of exchange-rate models: by ignoring the distinction between permanent and transitory exchange-rate changes, prior tests obscure the connection between currencies and fundamentals.

/pdf/currency-returns-intrinsic-value-and-institutional-investor-m9l8gjmj17.pdf

Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/2609649/Campbell_CaughtOnTape.pdf?sequence=2

Caught on tape: Institutional trading stock returns, and earnings announcements.

Using a new technique, and weekly data for 25 countries from 1994 to 1998, we analyze the relationship between institutional cross-border portfolio flows, and domestic and foreign equity returns. In emerging markets, institutional flows forecast statistically indistinguishable movements in country closed-end fund NAV returns and price returns. In contrast, closed-end fund flows forecast price returns, but not NAV returns. Furthermore, institutional flows display trend-following (trend-reversing) behavior in response to symmetric (asymmetric) movements in NAV and price returns. The results suggest that institutional cross-border flows are linked to fundamentals, while closed-end fund flows are a source of price pressure in the short run.

/pdf/institutional-portfolio-flows-and-international-investments-29btmajz6t.pdf

Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/3197/CommodityPaperJune2009_Total.pdf

Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets

We uncover a new channel through which shocks are transmitted across international markets. Investor flows to funds domiciled in developed markets force significant changes in their portfolio allocations to emerging markets. These forced trades affect equity prices, correlations between emerging markets, and the developed-market betas of emerging markets. These funding-driven fire sale effects are related to, but distinct from those arising purely from high fund holdings or high overlapping ownership of emerging markets in fund portfolios. A simple model and calibration exercise highlight the importance to these findings of 'push' effects from funds' domicile countries, and 'co-ownership spillover' between markets with overlapping fund ownership.

/pdf/asset-fire-sales-and-purchases-and-the-international-4ectgfsl8g.pdf

Tarun Ramadorai

Papers

Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional-Investor Flows

Caught on tape: Institutional trading stock returns, and earnings announcements.

Institutional Portfolio Flows and International Investments

Limits to arbitrage and hedging: Evidence from commodity markets

Asset fire sales and purchases and the international transmission of funding shocks