Preface to the Princeton Landmarks in Biology Edition vii Preface xi Symbols Used xiii 1. The Importance of Islands 3 2. Area and Number of Speicies 8 3. Further Explanations of the Area-Diversity Pattern 19 4. The Strategy of Colonization 68 5. Invasibility and the Variable Niche 94 6. Stepping Stones and Biotic Exchange 123 7. Evolutionary Changes Following Colonization 145 8. Prospect 181 Glossary 185 References 193 Index 201

The Theory of Island Biogeography

Statistics for Spatial Data.

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00457602/document

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

The terrestrial carbon sink has been large in recent decades, but its size and location remain uncertain. Using forest inventory data and long-term ecosystem carbon studies, we estimate a total forest sink of 2.4 ± 0.4 petagrams of carbon per year (Pg C year–1) globally for 1990 to 2007. We also estimate a source of 1.3 ± 0.7 Pg C year–1 from tropical land-use change, consisting of a gross tropical deforestation emission of 2.9 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1 partially compensated by a carbon sink in tropical forest regrowth of 1.6 ± 0.5 Pg C year–1. Together, the fluxes comprise a net global forest sink of 1.1 ± 0.8 Pg C year–1, with tropical estimates having the largest uncertainties. Our total forest sink estimate is equivalent in magnitude to the terrestrial sink deduced from fossil fuel emissions and land-use change sources minus ocean and atmospheric sinks.

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A Large and Persistent Carbon Sink in the World’s Forests

Human activities have caused the decline of numerous species and ecosys- tems. To promote ecosystem resilience, recent management efforts aim to maintain eco- system patterns and processes within their historical range of variability. There has been substantial concern that quaking aspen, the most widely distributed tree in North America and the most important deciduous tree in the subalpine forests of the Rocky Mountains, has declined significantly in the western landscape during the 20th century. This reported decline has been attributed to conifer encroachment associated with fire exclusion, as well as other causes. To assess long-term changes in the extent of quaking aspen in a 175 000- ha study area in western Colorado, we used a Geographic Information System to compare an 1898 map of vegetation and fires to a modern map of present forest cover types. Based on this comparison, a larger portion of the current landscape is dominated by quaking aspen relative to the late 19th century, a period of extensive burning in this area. During the 20th century, aspen was persistent over most of its extent, even in the absence of fire. Fires of the late 19th century also increased aspen cover in stands that were previously dominated by spruce and fir. The trend toward increased aspen was greater at lower elevations. The total area where spruce and fir have replaced aspen is small in comparison to the area where aspen has increased or has persisted. The successional replacement of aspen by conifers is more pronounced at higher elevations and where the predisturbance vegetation was dom- inated by conifers. The net effect of severe disturbances during and after the late 19th century has also increased aspen cover relative to the period that preceded these distur- bances. Thus, where the successional replacement of aspen by conifers is occurring today, such a trend may be within the range of historical variation. Long intervals between large, severe natural disturbances in ecosystems can result in a broad range of natural ecological conditions, including dominance by particular species.

The persistence of quaking aspen (populus tremuloides) in the grand mesa area, colorado

The montane forests (i.e., below ca. 2900 m) of the Colorado Front Range have experienced repeated outbreaks of western spruce budworm (Choristoneuraoccidentalis Free.) and Douglas-fir bark beetle (Dendroctonuspseudotsugae Hopk.), both of which locally attack Douglas-fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii (Mirb.) Franco). In this study we examine the effects of historically documented outbreaks of these insects on succession, stand structure, and radial growth of host and nonhost species in Rocky Mountain National Park. The most recent budworm (1974–1985) and bark beetle (1984–present) outbreaks resulted in the most severe and widespread disturbance of these forests since the late 1800s. Stand response to these outbreaks is primarily a function of stand structure and age characteristics of Douglas-fir prior to an outbreak. Young, vigorous postfire stands show minimal budworm defoliation, and in these stands only remnant trees from the prefire generation appear susceptible to beetle-caused mortality. Dense stands exhib...

Stand response to western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir bark beetle outbreaks, Colorado Front Range

Extensive logging and burning in association with the mining booms of the latter half of the 19th century severely disturbed the montane forests of Boulder County in the Colorado Front Range. Repeat photography of 68 historical photographs and age structure analysis of 24 stands were used to investigate patterns of stand development following disturbance. The data set of nearly 1300 tree ages revealed highly variable patterns of development of stands dominated mainly by ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesli), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), limber pine (Pinus flexilis), and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa). In most cases, forest succession followed an “initial floristics” pattern in which both early and late successional (or climax) species established more or less synchronously. Less commonly, and always on less favorable sites, forest succession followed a “relay floristics” pattern in which the late successional species did not establish until several decades after initi...

Anthropogenic disturbance and recovery patterns in montane forests, colorado front range

In Colorado and southern Wyoming, mountain pine beetle (MPB) has affected over 1.6 million ha of predominantly lodgepole pine forests, raising concerns about effects of MPB-caused mortality on subsequent wildfire risk and behavior. Using empirical data we modeled potential fire behavior across a gradient of wind speeds and moisture scenarios in Green stands compared three stages since MPB attack (Red [1–3 yrs], Grey [4–10 yrs], and Old-MPB [,30 yrs]). MPB killed 50% of the trees and 70% of the basal area in Red and Grey stages. Across moisture scenarios, canopy fuel moisture was one-third lower in Red and Grey stages compared to the Green stage, making active crown fire possible at lower wind speeds and less extreme moisture conditions. More-open canopies and high loads of large surface fuels due to treefall in Grey and Old-MPB stages significantly increased surface fireline intensities, facilitating active crown fire at lower wind speeds (.30–55 km/hr) across all moisture scenarios. Not accounting for low foliar moistures in Red and Grey stages, and large surface fuels in Grey and Old-MPB stages, underestimates the occurrence of active crown fire. Under extreme burning conditions, minimum wind speeds for active crown fire were 25–35 km/hr lower for Red, Grey and Old-MPB stands compared to Green. However, if transition to crown fire occurs (outside the stand, or within the stand via ladder fuels or wind gusts .65 km/hr), active crown fire would be sustained at similar wind speeds, suggesting observed fire behavior may not be qualitatively different among MPB stages under extreme burning conditions. Overall, the risk (probability) of active crown fire appears elevated in MPB-affected stands, but the predominant fire hazard (crown fire) is similar across MPB stages and is characteristic of lodgepole pine forests where extremely dry, gusty weather conditions are key factors in determining fire behavior.

/pdf/effects-of-mountain-pine-beetle-on-fuels-and-expected-fire-4qeb352qr8.pdf

Thomas T. Veblen

Papers

The persistence of quaking aspen (populus tremuloides) in the grand mesa area, colorado

Stand response to western spruce budworm and Douglas-fir bark beetle outbreaks, Colorado Front Range

Anthropogenic disturbance and recovery patterns in montane forests, colorado front range

Effects of mountain pine beetle on fuels and expected fire behavior in lodgepole pine forests, Colorado, USA

On the conifer regeneration gap in New Zealand: the dynamics of Libocedrus bidwillii stands on South Island.