We investigate whether income inequality affects subsequent growth in a cross-country sample for 1965-90, using the models of Barro (1997), Bleaney and Nishiyama (2002) and Sachs and Warner (1997), with negative results. We then investigate the evolution of income inequality over the same period and its correlation with growth. The dominating feature is inequality convergence across countries. This convergence has been significantly faster amongst developed countries. Growth does not appear to influence the evolution of inequality over time. Outline

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81822/1/02-28.pdf

Economic growth and income inequality

This paper argues that the textbook search and matching model cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies in response to shocks of a plausible magnitude. In the United States, the standard deviation of the vacancy-unemployment ratio is almost 20 times as large as the standard deviation of average labor productivity, while the search model predicts that the two variables should have nearly the same volatility. A shock that changes average labor productivity primarily alters the present value of wages, generating only a small movement along a downward-sloping Beveridge curve (unemploymentvacancy locus). A shock to the separation rate generates a counterfactually positive correlation between unemployment and vacancies. In both cases, the model exhibits virtually no propagation. (JEL E24, E32, J41, J63, J64)

/pdf/the-cyclical-behavior-of-equilibrium-unemployment-and-17ieb2nfw9.pdf

The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies

A detailed review of the education sector in Australia as in the data provided by the 2006 edition of the OECD's annual publication, 'Education at a Glance' is presented. While the data has shown that in almost all OECD countries educational attainment levels are on the rise, with countries showing impressive gains in university qualifications, it also reveals that a large of share of young people still do not complete secondary school, which remains a baseline for successful entry into the labour market.

/pdf/education-at-a-glance-m5vl7o68j5.pdf

Education at a Glance

This paper reviews, appraises, and critiques theoretical and empirical research on the connections between the operation of the financial system and economic growth. While subject to ample qualifications and countervailing views, the preponderance of evidence suggests that both financial intermediaries and markets matter for growth and that reverse causality alone is not driving this relationship. Furthermore, theory and evidence imply that better developed financial systems ease external financing constraints facing firms, which illuminates one mechanism through which financial development influences economic growth. The paper highlights many areas needing additional research.

Chapter 12 Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence

We discuss recent empirical research on how globalization has affected income inequality in developing countries. We begin with a discussion of conceptual issues regarding the measurement of globalization and inequality. Next, we present empirical evidence on the evolution of globalization and inequality in several developing countries during the 1980s and 1990s. We then examine the channels through which globalization may have affected inequality discussing theory and evidence in parellel. We conclude with directions for future research.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/nber_w12885.pdf?abstractid=961806&mirid=1&type=2

Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries

This paper develops a tractable incomplete-markets model of economic growth in which households invest in risk-free physical capital and risky human capital. The paper shows that a reduction in uninsurable idiosyncratic labor income risk decreases physical capital investment, but increases human capital investment, growth, and welfare. A quantitative analysis based on a calibrated version of the model reveals that these effects are substantial and of the same order of magnitude as the effects of distortionary income taxation. The analysis further suggests that government-sponsored severance payments to displaced workers increase growth and welfare even if these payments have to be e nanced through distortionary income taxation.

Human Capital Risk and Economic Growth

This paper analyzes the welfare costs of business cycles when workers face uninsurable job displacement risk that has a cyclical component. Using a simple general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, this paper shows the following result: for sufficiently high degree of risk aversion (at least one), cyclical variations in the long-term earnings losses of displaced workers can generate arbitrarily large cost of business cycles even if the second moments of the distribution of individual income changes are constant over the cycle. Thus, the previous literature, which has either disregarded long-term earnings losses of displaced workers or dealt with them only indirectly using second-moment analysis, might have severely under-estimated the welfare cost of business cycles. In addition to the theoretical analysis, this paper also conducts a quantitative study of the cost of business cycles using empirical evidence on the long-term earnings losses of U.S. workers. The quantitative analysis suggests that cyclical variations in job displacement risk generate sizable cost of business cycles.

/pdf/job-displacement-risk-and-the-cost-of-business-cycles-2yvp79cj05.pdf

Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles

https://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/18431.pdf

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

In 2005 the German government implemented the so-called Hartz IV reform, which amounted to a complete overhaul of the German unemployment insurance system and resulted in a significant reduction in unemployment benefits for the long-term unemployed. In this paper, we use an incomplete-market model with search
unemployment to evaluate the macro-economic and welfare effects of the Hartz IV reform. We calibrate the model economy to German data before the reform and then use the calibrated model economy to simulate the effects of Hartz IV. In our baseline calibration, we find that the reform has reduced the long-run (noncyclical)unemployment rate in Germany by 1.4 percentage points. We also find that the welfare of employed households increases, but the welfare of unemployed households decreases even with moderate degree of risk aversion.

/pdf/macroeconomic-evaluation-of-labor-market-reform-in-germany-18b8zt7e3m.pdf

Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany

This paper studies empirically the relationship between trade policy and individual income risk faced by workers, and uses the estimates of this empirical analysis to evaluate the welfare effect of trade reform. The analysis proceeds in three steps. First, longitudinal data on workers are used to estimate time-varying individual income risk parameters in various manufacturing sectors. Second, the estimated income risk parameters and data on trade barriers are used to analyze the relationship between trade policy and income risk. Finally, a simple dynamic incomplete-market model is used to assess the corresponding welfare costs. In the implementation of this methodology using Mexican data, we find that trade policy changes have a significant short run effect on income risk. Further, while the tariff level has an insignificant mean effect, it nevertheless changes the degree to which macroeconomic shocks affect income risk.

/pdf/trade-policy-income-risk-and-welfare-417fxtmsc8.pdf

Tom Krebs

Papers

Human Capital Risk and Economic Growth

Job Displacement Risk and the Cost of Business Cycles

Growth and welfare effects of business cycles in economies with idiosyncratic human capital risk

Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany

Trade Policy, Income Risk, and Welfare