Machine Learning is the study of methods for programming computers to learn. Computers are applied to a wide range of tasks, and for most of these it is relatively easy for programmers to design and implement the necessary software. However, there are many tasks for which this is difficult or impossible. These can be divided into four general categories. First, there are problems for which there exist no human experts. For example, in modern automated manufacturing facilities, there is a need to predict machine failures before they occur by analyzing sensor readings. Because the machines are new, there are no human experts who can be interviewed by a programmer to provide the knowledge necessary to build a computer system. A machine learning system can study recorded data and subsequent machine failures and learn prediction rules. Second, there are problems where human experts exist, but where they are unable to explain their expertise. This is the case in many perceptual tasks, such as speech recognition, hand-writing recognition, and natural language understanding. Virtually all humans exhibit expert-level abilities on these tasks, but none of them can describe the detailed steps that they follow as they perform them. Fortunately, humans can provide machines with examples of the inputs and correct outputs for these tasks, so machine learning algorithms can learn to map the inputs to the outputs. Third, there are problems where phenomena are changing rapidly. In finance, for example, people would like to predict the future behavior of the stock market, of consumer purchases, or of exchange rates. These behaviors change frequently, so that even if a programmer could construct a good predictive computer program, it would need to be rewritten frequently. A learning program can relieve the programmer of this burden by constantly modifying and tuning a set of learned prediction rules. Fourth, there are applications that need to be customized for each computer user separately. Consider, for example, a program to filter unwanted electronic mail messages. Different users will need different filters. It is unreasonable to expect each user to program his or her own rules, and it is infeasible to provide every user with a software engineer to keep the rules up-to-date. A machine learning system can learn which mail messages the user rejects and maintain the filtering rules automatically. Machine learning addresses many of the same research questions as the fields of statistics, data mining, and psychology, but with differences of emphasis. Statistics focuses on understanding the phenomena that have generated the data, often with the goal of testing different hypotheses about those phenomena. Data mining seeks to find patterns in the data that are understandable by people. Psychological studies of human learning aspire to understand the mechanisms underlying the various learning behaviors exhibited by people (concept learning, skill acquisition, strategy change, etc.).

Machine learning

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

Deep learning has revolutionized many machine learning tasks in recent years, ranging from image classification and video processing to speech recognition and natural language understanding. The data in these tasks are typically represented in the Euclidean space. However, there is an increasing number of applications, where data are generated from non-Euclidean domains and are represented as graphs with complex relationships and interdependency between objects. The complexity of graph data has imposed significant challenges on the existing machine learning algorithms. Recently, many studies on extending deep learning approaches for graph data have emerged. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of graph neural networks (GNNs) in data mining and machine learning fields. We propose a new taxonomy to divide the state-of-the-art GNNs into four categories, namely, recurrent GNNs, convolutional GNNs, graph autoencoders, and spatial–temporal GNNs. We further discuss the applications of GNNs across various domains and summarize the open-source codes, benchmark data sets, and model evaluation of GNNs. Finally, we propose potential research directions in this rapidly growing field.

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A Comprehensive Survey on Graph Neural Networks

In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Background: As more and more researchers are turning to big data for new opportunities of biomedical discoveries, machine learning models, as the backbone of big data analysis, are mentioned more often in biomedical journals. However, owing to the inherent complexity of machine learning methods, they are prone to misuse. Because of the flexibility in specifying machine learning models, the results are often insufficiently reported in research articles, hindering reliable assessment of model validity and consistent interpretation of model outputs. Objective: To attain a set of guidelines on the use of machine learning predictive models within clinical settings to make sure the models are correctly applied and sufficiently reported so that true discoveries can be distinguished from random coincidence. Methods: A multidisciplinary panel of machine learning experts, clinicians, and traditional statisticians were interviewed, using an iterative process in accordance with the Delphi method. Results: The process produced a set of guidelines that consists of (1) a list of reporting items to be included in a research article and (2) a set of practical sequential steps for developing predictive models. Conclusions: A set of guidelines was generated to enable correct application of machine learning models and consistent reporting of model specifications and results in biomedical research. We believe that such guidelines will accelerate the adoption of big data analysis, particularly with machine learning methods, in the biomedical research community. [J Med Internet Res 2016;18(12):e323]

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Guidelines for Developing and Reporting Machine Learning Predictive Models in Biomedical Research: A Multidisciplinary View.

Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach.

Feature engineering remains a major bottleneck when creating predictive systems from electronic medical records. At present, an important missing element is detecting predictive regular clinical motifs from irregular episodic records. We present Deepr (short for Deep record), a new end-to-end deep learning system that learns to extract features from medical records and predicts future risk automatically. Deepr transforms a record into a sequence of discrete elements separated by coded time gaps and hospital transfers. On top of the sequence is a convolutional neural net that detects and combines predictive local clinical motifs to stratify the risk. Deepr permits transparent inspection and visualization of its inner working. We validate Deepr on hospital data to predict unplanned readmission after discharge. Deepr achieves superior accuracy compared to traditional techniques, detects meaningful clinical motifs, and uncovers the underlying structure of the disease and intervention space.

$\mathtt {Deepr}$: A Convolutional Net for Medical Records.

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates the modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, an end-to-end deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records, stores previous illness history, infers current illness states and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare represents care episodes as vectors in space, models patient health state trajectories through explicit memory of historical records. Built on Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timed events by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of memory cells. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving up to the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling, intervention recommendation, and future risk prediction. On two important cohorts with heavy social and economic burden -- diabetes and mental health -- the results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.

DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

Personalized predictive medicine necessitates modeling of patient illness and care processes, which inherently have long-term temporal dependencies. Healthcare observations, recorded in electronic medical records, are episodic and irregular in time. We introduce DeepCare, a deep dynamic neural network that reads medical records and predicts future medical outcomes. At the data level, DeepCare models patient health state trajectories with explicit memory of illness. Built on Long Short-Term Memory LSTM, DeepCare introduces time parameterizations to handle irregular timing by moderating the forgetting and consolidation of illness memory. DeepCare also incorporates medical interventions that change the course of illness and shape future medical risk. Moving upi¾źto the health state level, historical and present health states are then aggregated through multiscale temporal pooling, before passing through a neural network that estimates future outcomes. We demonstrate the efficacy of DeepCare for disease progression modeling and readmission prediction in diabetes, a chronic disease with large economic burden. The results show improved modeling and risk prediction accuracy.

Truyen Tran

Papers

Guidelines for Developing and Reporting Machine Learning Predictive Models in Biomedical Research: A Multidisciplinary View.

Predicting healthcare trajectories from medical records: A deep learning approach.

$\mathtt {Deepr}$: A Convolutional Net for Medical Records.

DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model for Predictive Medicine

DeepCare: A Deep Dynamic Memory Model forźPredictive Medicine