THE DESIGN AND ANALYSIS OF EXPERIMENTS. By Oscar Kempthorne. New York, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1952. 631 pp. $8.50. This book by a teacher of statistics (as well as a consultant for \"experimenters\") is a comprehensive study of the philosophical background for the statistical design of experiment. It is necessary to have some facility with algebraic notation and manipulation to be able to use the volume intelligently. The problems are presented from the theoretical point of view, without such practical examples as would be helpful for those not acquainted with mathematics. The mathematical justification for the techniques is given. As a somewhat advanced treatment of the design and analysis of experiments, this volume will be interesting and helpful for many who approach statistics theoretically as well as practically. With emphasis on the \"why,\" and with description given broadly, the author relates the subject matter to the general theory of statistics and to the general problem of experimental inference. MARGARET J. ROBERTSON

The Design and Analysis of Experiments

Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Statistics for Spatial Data.

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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Preface. About the Authors. Foreword. Prologue. Part I: Fundamentals. 1. Sampling Plans. 1.1 The 'Curse of Dimensionality' and How to Avoid It. 1.2 Physical versus Computational Experiments. 1.3 Designing Preliminary Experiments (Screening). 1.3.1 Estimating the Distribution of Elementary Effects. 1.4 Designing a Sampling Plan. 1.4.1 Stratification. 1.4.2 Latin Squares and Random Latin Hypercubes. 1.4.3 Space-filling Latin Hypercubes. 1.4.4 Space-filling Subsets. 1.5 A Note on Harmonic Responses. 1.6 Some Pointers for Further Reading. References. 2. Constructing a Surrogate. 2.1 The Modelling Process. 2.1.1 Stage One: Preparing the Data and Choosing a Modelling Approach. 2.1.2 Stage Two: Parameter Estimation and Training. 2.1.3 Stage Three: Model Testing. 2.2 Polynomial Models. 2.2.1 Example One: Aerofoil Drag. 2.2.2 Example Two: a Multimodal Testcase. 2.2.3 What About the k -variable Case? 2.3 Radial Basis Function Models. 2.3.1 Fitting Noise-Free Data. 2.3.2 Radial Basis Function Models of Noisy Data. 2.4 Kriging. 2.4.1 Building the Kriging Model. 2.4.2 Kriging Prediction. 2.5 Support Vector Regression. 2.5.1 The Support Vector Predictor. 2.5.2 The Kernel Trick. 2.5.3 Finding the Support Vectors. 2.5.4 Finding . 2.5.5 Choosing C and epsilon. 2.5.6 Computing epsilon : v -SVR 71. 2.6 The Big(ger) Picture. References. 3. Exploring and Exploiting a Surrogate. 3.1 Searching the Surrogate. 3.2 Infill Criteria. 3.2.1 Prediction Based Exploitation. 3.2.2 Error Based Exploration. 3.2.3 Balanced Exploitation and Exploration. 3.2.4 Conditional Likelihood Approaches. 3.2.5 Other Methods. 3.3 Managing a Surrogate Based Optimization Process. 3.3.1 Which Surrogate for What Use? 3.3.2 How Many Sample Plan and Infill Points? 3.3.3 Convergence Criteria. 3.3.4 Search of the Vibration Isolator Geometry Feasibility Using Kriging Goal Seeking. References. Part II: Advanced Concepts. 4. Visualization. 4.1 Matrices of Contour Plots. 4.2 Nested Dimensions. Reference. 5. Constraints. 5.1 Satisfaction of Constraints by Construction. 5.2 Penalty Functions. 5.3 Example Constrained Problem. 5.3.1 Using a Kriging Model of the Constraint Function. 5.3.2 Using a Kriging Model of the Objective Function. 5.4 Expected Improvement Based Approaches. 5.4.1 Expected Improvement With Simple Penalty Function. 5.4.2 Constrained Expected Improvement. 5.5 Missing Data. 5.5.1 Imputing Data for Infeasible Designs. 5.6 Design of a Helical Compression Spring Using Constrained Expected Improvement. 5.7 Summary. References. 6. Infill Criteria With Noisy Data. 6.1 Regressing Kriging. 6.2 Searching the Regression Model. 6.2.1 Re-Interpolation. 6.2.2 Re-Interpolation With Conditional Likelihood Approaches. 6.3 A Note on Matrix Ill-Conditioning. 6.4 Summary. References. 7. Exploiting Gradient Information. 7.1 Obtaining Gradients. 7.1.1 Finite Differencing. 7.1.2 Complex Step Approximation. 7.1.3 Adjoint Methods and Algorithmic Differentiation. 7.2 Gradient-enhanced Modelling. 7.3 Hessian-enhanced Modelling. 7.4 Summary. References. 8. Multi-fidelity Analysis. 8.1 Co-Kriging. 8.2 One-variable Demonstration. 8.3 Choosing X c and X e . 8.4 Summary. References. 9. Multiple Design Objectives. 9.1 Pareto Optimization. 9.2 Multi-objective Expected Improvement. 9.3 Design of the Nowacki Cantilever Beam Using Multi-objective, Constrained Expected Improvement. 9.4 Design of a Helical Compression Spring Using Multi-objective, Constrained Expected Improvement. 9.5 Summary. References. Appendix: Example Problems. A.1 One-Variable Test Function. A.2 Branin Test Function. A.3 Aerofoil Design. A.4 The Nowacki Beam. A.5 Multi-objective, Constrained Optimal Design of a Helical Compression Spring. A.6 Novel Passive Vibration Isolator Feasibility. References. Index.

Engineering Design via Surrogate Modelling: A Practical Guide

Kriging is a useful method for developing metamodels for product design optimization. The most popular kriging method, known as ordinary kriging, uses a constant mean in the model. In this article, a modified kriging method is proposed, which has an unknown mean model. Therefore, it is called blind kriging. The unknown mean model is identified from experimental data using a Bayesian variable selection technique. Many examples are presented, which show remarkable improvement in prediction using blind kriging over ordinary kriging. Moreover, a blind kriging predictor is easier to interpret and seems to be more robust against mis-specification in the correlation parameters.

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Blind Kriging: A New Method for Developing Metamodels

A randomly generated Latin hypercube design (LHD) can be quite struc- tured: the variables may be highly correlated or the design may not have good space-filling properties. There are procedures for finding good LHDs by minimizing the pairwise correlations or by maximizing the inter-site distances. In this article we show that these two criteria need not be in close agreement. We propose a multi-objective optimization approach to find good LHDs by combining correlation and distance performance measures. We also propose a new exchange algorithm for efficiently generating such designs. Several examples are presented to show that the new algorithm is fast, and that the optimal designs are good in terms of both the correlation and distance criteria.

/pdf/orthogonal-maximin-latin-hypercube-designs-2kqkj8ye2n.pdf

Orthogonal-maximin latin hypercube designs

Preliminary design of a complex system often involves exploring a large design space. This may require repeated use of computationally expensive simulations. To ease the computational burden, surrogate models are built to provide rapid approximations of more expensive models. However, the surrogate models themselves are often expensive to build because they are based on repeated experiments with computationally expensive simulations. An alternative approach is to replace the detailed simulations with simplified approximate simulations, thereby sacrificing accuracy for reduced computational time. Naturally, surrogate models built from these approximate simulations will also be imprecise. A strategy is needed for improving the precision of surrogate models based on approximate simulations without significantly increasing computational time. In this paper, a new approach is taken to integrate data from approximate and detailed simulations to build a surrogate model to describe the relationship between output and input parameters. Experimental results from approximate simulations form the bulk of the data, and they are used to build a model based on a Gaussian process. The fitted model is then ‘adjusted’ by incorporating small amounts of data from detailed simulations to obtain a more accurate prediction model. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated with a design application for a cellular material that is used to cool a microprocessor. The emphasis is on the method and not on the results per se.Copyright © 2004 by ASME

https://www2.isye.gatech.edu/~jeffwu/publications/116.pdf

Building Surrogate Models Based on Detailed and Approximate Simulations

SUMMARY Space-filling properties are important in designing computer experiments. The traditional maximinandminimaxdistancedesignsconsideronlyspace-fillinginthefull-dimensionalspace; thiscanresultinpoorprojectionsontolower-dimensionalspaces,whichisundesirablewhenonly af ew factors are active. Restricting maximin distance design to the class of Latin hypercubes can improveone-dimensionalprojectionsbutcannotguaranteegoodspace-fillingpropertiesinlarger subspaces. We propose designs that maximize space-filling properties on projections to all subsets of factors. We call our designs maximum projection designs. Our design criterion can be computed at no more cost than a design criterion that ignores projection properties.

Maximum projection designs for computer experiments

In linear regression problems with related predictors, it is desirable to do variable selection and estimation by maintaining the hierarchical or structural relationships among predictors. In this paper we propose non-negative garrote methods that can naturally incorporate such relationships defined through effect heredity principles or marginality principles. We show that the methods are very easy to compute and enjoy nice theoretical properties. We also show that the methods can be easily extended to deal with more general regression problems such as generalized linear models. Simulations and real examples are used to illustrate the merits of the proposed methods.

/pdf/structured-variable-selection-and-estimation-3ntkeorwpq.pdf

V. Roshan Joseph

Papers

Blind Kriging: A New Method for Developing Metamodels

Orthogonal-maximin latin hypercube designs

Building Surrogate Models Based on Detailed and Approximate Simulations

Maximum projection designs for computer experiments

Structured variable selection and estimation