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Modern Applied Statistics With S

Many factors are involved in determining the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of the important tick vector Ixodes ricinus (Acari: Ixodidae) in Europe, as well as in changes in the distribution within its prior endemic zones. This paper builds on published literature and unpublished expert opinion from the VBORNET network with the aim of reviewing the evidence for these changes in Europe and discusses the many climatic, ecological, landscape and anthropogenic drivers. These can be divided into those directly related to climatic change, contributing to an expansion in the tick’s geographic range at extremes of altitude in central Europe, and at extremes of latitude in Scandinavia; those related to changes in the distribution of tick hosts, particularly roe deer and other cervids; other ecological changes such as habitat connectivity and changes in land management; and finally, anthropogenically induced changes. These factors are strongly interlinked and often not well quantified. Although a change in climate plays an important role in certain geographic regions, for much of Europe it is non-climatic factors that are becoming increasingly important. How we manage habitats on a landscape scale, and the changes in the distribution and abundance of tick hosts are important considerations during our assessment and management of the public health risks associated with ticks and tick-borne disease issues in 21st century Europe. Better understanding and mapping of the spread of I. ricinus (and changes in its abundance) is, however, essential to assess the risk of the spread of infections transmitted by this vector species. Enhanced tick surveillance with harmonized approaches for comparison of data enabling the follow-up of trends at EU level will improve the messages on risk related to tick-borne diseases to policy makers, other stake holders and to the general public.

/pdf/driving-forces-for-changes-in-geographical-distribution-of-1aaezoaq4a.pdf

Driving forces for changes in geographical distribution of Ixodes ricinus ticks in Europe

Tick-borne encephalitis

For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1–888–ASK–USGS. For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. 10. Diagram showing the GMTED2010 layer extents (minimum and maximum latitude and longitude) are a result of the coordinate system inherited from the 1-arc-second SRTM

Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 (GMTED2010)

Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis

http://www.personal.psu.edu/faculty/p/j/pjh18/downloads/149_Perkins_et_al_2003_Int_J_Parasitol.pdf

Empirical evidence for key hosts in persistence of a tick-borne disease.

Background 
The Western Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) virus often causes devastating or lethal disease. In Europe, the number of human TBE cases has increased dramatically over the last decade, risk areas are expanding and new foci are being discovered every year. The early localisation of new TBE foci and the identification of the main risk factors associated with disease emergence represent a priority for the public health community. Although a number of socio-economic parameters have been suggested to explain TBE upsurges in eastern Europe, the principal driving factors in relatively stable western European countries have not been identified.


Methodology/Principal Findings 
In this paper, we analyse the correlation between the upsurge of TBE in 17 alpine provinces in northern Italy from 1992 to 2006 with climatic variables, forest structure (as a proxy for small mammal reservoir host abundance), and abundance of the principal large vertebrate tick host (roe deer), using datasets available for the last 40 years. No significant differences between the pattern of changes in climatic variables in provinces where TBE has emerged compared to provinces were no clinical TBE cases have been observed to date. Instead, the best model for explaining the increase in TBE incidence in humans in this area include changes in forest structure, in particular the ratio of coppice to high stand forest, and the density of roe deer.


Conclusion/Significance 
Substantial changes in vegetation structure that improve habitat suitability for the main TBE reservoir hosts (small mammals), as well as an increase in roe deer abundance due to changes in land and wildlife management practices, are likely to be among the most crucial factors affecting the circulation potential of Western TBE virus and, consequently, the risk of TBE emergence in humans in western Europe. We believe our approach will be useful in predicting TBE risk on a wider scale.

/pdf/forest-structure-and-roe-deer-abundance-predict-tick-borne-1s58wqke4o.pdf

Forest structure and roe deer abundance predict tick-borne encephalitis risk in Italy.

Deer support high tick intensities, perpetuating tick populations, but they do not support tick-borne pathogen transmission, so are dilution hosts. We test the hypothesis that absence of deer (loss of a dilution host) will result in either an increase or a reduction in tick density, and that the outcome is scale dependent. We use a complementary methodological approach starting with meta-analysis, followed up by a field experiment. Meta-analysis indicated that larger deer exclosures reduce questing (host-seeking) tick density, but as the exclosure becomes smaller (<2.5 ha) the questing tick density is increased (amplified). To determine the consequences for tick-borne pathogen transmission we carried out a field experiment, comparing the intensity of ticks that fed on hosts competent for tick-borne pathogen transmission (rodents) in two small (<1 ha) deer exclosures and their replicated controls. Intensity of larval ticks on rodents was not significantly different between treatments, but nymph intensity, the tick stage responsible for tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) transmission, was higher in deer exclosures. TBE seropositive rodents were found in a deer exclosure but not in the controls. We propose that localized absence of deer (loss of a dilution host) increases tick feeding on rodents, leading to the potential for tick-borne disease hotspots.

/pdf/localized-deer-absence-leads-to-tick-amplification-1xs7vogapr.pdf

Localized deer absence leads to tick amplification.

Saturation deficit and deer density affect questing activity and local abundance of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodidae) in Italy

The spatial and temporal distribution of hantavirus and arenavirus antibody-positive wild rodents in Trentino, Italy, was studied using immunofluorescence assays (IFA) in two long-term sites trapped in 2000-2003, and six other sites trapped in 2002. The overall hantavirus seroprevalence in the bank voles, Clethrionomys glareolus (n=229) screened for Puumala virus (PUUV) antibodies was 0.4%, and that for Apodemus flavicollis mice (n=1416) screened for Dobrava virus (DOBV) antibodies was 0.2%. Antibodies against lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) were found in 82 (5.6%) of the 1472 tested rodents; the seroprevalence being 6.1% in A. flavicollis (n=1181), 3.3% in C. glareolus (n=276), and 14.3% in Microtus arvalis (n=7). Of the serum samples of 488 forestry workers studied by IFA, 12 were LCMV-IgG positive (2.5%) and one DOBV-IgG positive (0.2%), however, the latter could not be confirmed DOBV-specific with a neutralization assay. Our results show a widespread distribution but low prevalence of DOBV in Trentino, and demonstrate that the arenavirus antibodies are a common finding in several other rodent species besides the house mouse.

/pdf/hantavirus-and-arenavirus-antibody-prevalence-in-rodents-and-2jh3cmin4r.pdf

Valentina Tagliapietra

Papers

Empirical evidence for key hosts in persistence of a tick-borne disease.

Forest structure and roe deer abundance predict tick-borne encephalitis risk in Italy.

Localized deer absence leads to tick amplification.

Saturation deficit and deer density affect questing activity and local abundance of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodidae) in Italy

Hantavirus and arenavirus antibody prevalence in rodents and humans in Trentino, Northern Italy