We provide two methods for monitoring reinfection trends in routine surveillance data to identify signatures of changes in reinfection risk and apply these approaches to data from South Africa’s severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic to date. Although we found no evidence of increased reinfection risk associated with circulation of the Beta (B.1.351) or Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, we did find clear, population-level evidence to suggest immune evasion by the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant in previously infected individuals in South Africa. Reinfections occurring between 1 November 2021 and 31 January 2022 were detected in individuals infected in all three previous waves, and there has been an increase in the risk of having a third infection since mid-November 2021. Description Omicron and reinfection risk So far, our experience with pandemic coronavirus has been that the emergence of new variants is not detected until there has been substantial community transmission. Early in November 2021, South African scientists spotted reinfections consistent with the timing of the emergence of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529). In a population largely untouched by vaccines but widely infected, Pulliam et al. found that Beta or Delta variants rarely caused reinfection. However, after 31 October 2021, individuals were found who had had three experiences of infection (see the Perspective by Zelner and Eisenberg). The culprit was the rapidly emerging Omicron variant, with multiple mutations in the Spike protein. This variant’s chief advantage is its ability to evade naturally acquired immunity. Fortunately, the Omicron variant does not fully evade vaccine-derived immunity, but only those privileged to have been vaccinated can benefit. —CA Analysis of routine surveillance data from South Africa indicates that the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 evades immunity from prior infection. INTRODUCTION Globally, there have been more than 404 million cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with 5.8 million confirmed deaths as of February 2022. South Africa has experienced four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, with the second, third, and fourth waves being driven by the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants, respectively. A key question with the emergence of new variants is the extent to which they are able to reinfect those who have had a prior natural infection. RATIONALE We developed two approaches to monitor routine epidemiological surveillance data to determine whether SARS-CoV-2 reinfection risk has changed through time in South Africa in the context of the emergence of the Beta (B.1.351), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529) variants. We analyzed line-list data on positive tests for SARS-CoV-2 with specimen receipt dates between 4 March 2020 and 31 January 2022 collected through South Africa’s National Notifiable Medical Conditions Surveillance System. Individuals having sequential positive tests at least 90 days apart were considered to have suspected reinfections. Our routine monitoring of reinfection risk included comparison of reinfection rates with the expectation under a null model (approach 1) and estimation of the time-varying hazards of infection and reinfection throughout the epidemic (approach 2) based on model-based reconstruction of the susceptible populations eligible for primary and second infections. RESULTS A total of 105,323 suspected reinfections were identified among 2,942,248 individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 who had a positive test result at least 90 days before 31 January 2022. The number of reinfections observed through the end of the third wave in September 2021 was consistent with the null model of no change in reinfection risk (approach 1). Although increases in the hazard of primary infection were observed after the introduction of both the Beta and Delta variants, no corresponding increase was observed in the reinfection hazard (approach 2). Contrary to expectation, the estimated hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection was lower during waves driven by the Beta and Delta variants than for the first wave: the relative hazard ratio for wave 2 versus wave 1 was 0.71 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.60 to 0.85]; the relative hazard ratio for wave 3 versus wave 1 was 0.54 (95% CI: 0.45 to 0.64). By contrast, the recent spread of the Omicron variant has been associated with an increase in reinfection hazard coefficient. The estimated relative hazard ratio for reinfection versus primary infection versus wave 1 was 1.75 (95% CI: 1.48 to 2.10) for the period of Omicron emergence (1 November 2021 to 30 November 2021) and 1.70 (95% CI: 1.44 to 2.04) for wave 4 versus wave 1. Individuals with identified reinfections since 1 November 2021 had experienced primary infections in all three prior waves, and an increase in third infections has been detected since mid-November 2021. Many individuals experiencing third infections had second infections during the third (Delta) wave that ended in September 2021, strongly suggesting that these infections resulted from immune evasion rather than waning immunity. CONCLUSION Population-level evidence suggests that the Omicron variant is associated with a marked ability to evade immunity from prior infection. In contrast, there is no population-wide epidemiological evidence of immune escape associated with the Beta or Delta variants. This finding has important implications for public health planning, particularly in countries such as South Africa with high rates of immunity from prior infection. The further development of methods to track reinfection risk during pathogen emergence, including refinements to assess the impact of waning immunity, account for vaccine-derived protection, and monitor the risk of multiple reinfections, will be important for future pandemic preparedness. SARS-CoV-2 reinfection patterns in South Africa. South Africa has experienced four waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, each driven by the emergence of a new variant. Reinfection of previously infected individuals was relatively rare through the end of the third wave. Methods developed in South Africa to monitor reinfection trends led to the early detection of increased reinfection risk associated with the Omicron variant.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8995029

Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of Omicron in South Africa

Emerging variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are of clinical concern. In a cohort of 417 persons who had received the second dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine at least 2 weeks previously, we identified 2 women with vaccine breakthrough infection. Despite evidence of vaccine efficacy in both women, symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 developed, and they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by polymerase-chain-reaction testing. Viral sequencing revealed variants of likely clinical importance, including E484K in 1 woman and three mutations (T95I, del142-144, and D614G) in both. These observations indicate a potential risk of illness after successful vaccination and subsequent infection with variant virus, and they provide support for continued efforts to prevent and diagnose infection and to characterize variants in vaccinated persons. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2105000

Vaccine Breakthrough Infections with SARS-CoV-2 Variants.

More than one year after its inception, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains difficult to control despite the availability of several working vaccines. Progress in controlling the pandemic is slowed by the emergence of variants that appear to be more transmissible and more resistant to antibodies1,2. Here we report on a cohort of 63 individuals who have recovered from COVID-19 assessed at 1.3, 6.2 and 12 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection, 41% of whom also received mRNA vaccines3,4. In the absence of vaccination, antibody reactivity to the receptor binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2, neutralizing activity and the number of RBD-specific memory B cells remain relatively stable between 6 and 12 months after infection. Vaccination increases all components of the humoral response and, as expected, results in serum neutralizing activities against variants of concern similar to or greater than the neutralizing activity against the original Wuhan Hu-1 strain achieved by vaccination of naive individuals2,5–8. The mechanism underlying these broad-based responses involves ongoing antibody somatic mutation, memory B cell clonal turnover and development of monoclonal antibodies that are exceptionally resistant to SARS-CoV-2 RBD mutations, including those found in the variants of concern4,9. In addition, B cell clones expressing broad and potent antibodies are selectively retained in the repertoire over time and expand markedly after vaccination. The data suggest that immunity in convalescent individuals will be very long lasting and that convalescent individuals who receive available mRNA vaccines will produce antibodies and memory B cells that should be protective against circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants. Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 continue to evolve 6 to 12 months after infection in patients who have recovered from COVID-19, increasing in potency and breadth with time.

Naturally enhanced neutralizing breadth against SARS-CoV-2 one year after infection.

The durability of immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination remains unclear. Here, we longitudinally profiled vaccine responses in SARS-CoV-2 naive and recovered individuals for 6 months after vaccination. Antibodies declined from peak levels but remained detectable in most subjects at 6 months. We found mRNA vaccines generated functional memory B cells that increased from 3-6 months post-vaccination, with the majority of these cells cross-binding the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. mRNA vaccination further induced antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, and early CD4+ T cell responses correlated with long-term humoral immunity. Recall responses to vaccination in individuals with pre-existing immunity primarily increased antibody levels without substantially altering antibody decay rates. Together, these findings demonstrate robust cellular immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 and variants for at least 6 months after mRNA vaccination.

mRNA vaccines induce durable immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern.

Novel mRNA vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 have been authorized for emergency use. Despite their efficacy in clinical trials, data on mRNA vaccine-induced immune responses are mostly limited to serological analyses. Here, we interrogated antibody and antigen-specific memory B cells over time in 33 SARS-CoV-2 naive and 11 SARS-CoV-2 recovered subjects. SARS-CoV-2 naive individuals required both vaccine doses for optimal increases in antibodies, particularly for neutralizing titers against the B.1.351 variant. Memory B cells specific for full-length spike protein and the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) were also efficiently primed by mRNA vaccination and detectable in all SARS-CoV-2 naive subjects after the second vaccine dose, though the memory B cell response declined slightly with age. In SARS-CoV-2 recovered individuals, antibody and memory B cell responses were significantly boosted after the first vaccine dose; however, there was no increase in circulating antibodies, neutralizing titers, or antigen-specific memory B cells after the second dose. This robust boosting after the first vaccine dose strongly correlated with levels of pre-existing memory B cells in recovered individuals, identifying a key role for memory B cells in mounting recall responses to SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Together, our data demonstrated robust serological and cellular priming by mRNA vaccines and revealed distinct responses based on prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure, whereby COVID-19 recovered subjects may only require a single vaccine dose to achieve peak antibody and memory B cell responses. These findings also highlight the utility of defining cellular responses in addition to serologies and may inform SARS-CoV-2 vaccine distribution in a resource-limited setting.

Distinct antibody and memory B cell responses in SARS-CoV-2 naïve and recovered individuals following mRNA vaccination.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have raised concerns about resistance to neutralizing antibodies elicited by previous infection or vaccination. We examined whether sera from recovered and naive donors collected prior to, and following immunizations with existing mRNA vaccines, could neutralize the Wuhan-Hu-1 and B.1.351 variants. Pre-vaccination sera from recovered donors neutralized Wuhan-Hu-1 and sporadically neutralized B.1.351, but a single immunization boosted neutralizing titers against all variants and SARS-CoV-1 by up to 1000-fold. Neutralization was due to antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain and was not boosted by a second immunization. Immunization of naive donors also elicited cross-neutralizing responses, but at lower titers. Our study highlights the importance of vaccinating both uninfected and previously infected persons to elicit cross-variant neutralizing antibodies.

mRNA vaccination boosts cross-variant neutralizing antibodies elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants have raised concerns about resistance to neutralizing antibodies elicited by previous infection or vaccination We examined whether sera from recovered and naive donors collected prior to, and following immunizations with existing mRNA vaccines, could neutralize the Wuhan-Hu-1 and B1351 variants Pre-vaccination sera from recovered donors neutralized Wuhan-Hu-1 and sporadically neutralized B1351, but a single immunization boosted neutralizing titers against all variants and SARS-CoV-1 by up to 1000-fold Neutralization was due to antibodies targeting the receptor binding domain and was not boosted by a second immunization Immunization of naive donors also elicited cross-neutralizing responses, but at lower titers Our study highlights the importance of vaccinating both uninfected and previously infected persons to elicit cross-variant neutralizing antibodies

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Vanessa Rubin

Papers

mRNA vaccination boosts cross-variant neutralizing antibodies elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection.

A single mRNA immunization boosts cross-variant neutralizing antibodies elicited by SARS-CoV-2 infection