The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

On behalf of Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO, it is my great pleasure to welcome you all to this international scientific conference. Drylands are often considered fragile ecosystems, yet they have a remarkable resilience to stress. They are home to unique and well-adapted plant and animal species that we need to conserve. Some of the world’s greatest cultures and belief systems have originated in drylands. On the other hand, desertification and land degradation in drylands often result in poverty and cause environmental refugees to abandon their homes. These problems can only be addressed in a holistic manner, based on sound scientific research and findings. Solutions to the problems of dryland degradation need to be communicated as widely as possible through education at all levels. These are many reasons why UNESCO – within its mandate of science, education, culture and communication – took the intiative to organize this conference. And we are glad that so many partners have responded to our call. UNESCO considers this conference as its main contribution to the observance of the International Year of Deserts and Desertification in 2006. We have deliberately chosen the title ‘The Future of Drylands’ as we feel it is time to redefine our priorities for science, education and governance in the drylands based on 50 years of scientific research in arid and semi-arid zones. In fact UNESCO has one of the longest traditions, within the UN system, of addressing dryland problems from an interdisciplinary, scientific point of view. In 1955, the ‘International Arid Land Meetings’ were held in Socorro, New Mexico (USA). They were organized by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), sponsored by UNESCO and supported by the Rockefeller Foundation. One important output of the International Arid Land Meetings was a book entitled The Future of Drylands, edited by Gilbert F. White and published in

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

The Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), launched in 2003 and concluded by the PUB Symposium 2012 held in Delft (23–25 October 2012), set out to shift the scientific culture of hydrology towards improved scientific understanding of hydrological processes, as well as associated uncertainties and the development of models with increasing realism and predictive power. This paper reviews the work that has been done under the six science themes of the PUB Decade and outlines the challenges ahead for the hydrological sciences community.Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H.H.G., Bloschl, G., McDonnell, J.J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J.W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M.P., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J.E., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H.V., Hughes, D.A., Hut, R.W., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P.A., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H.C., Woods, R.A., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C., 2013. A d...

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A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review

Despite significant recent advancements, global hydrological models and their input databases still show limited capabilities in supporting many spatially detailed research questions and integrated assessments, such as required in freshwater ecology or applied water resources management. In order to address these challenges, the scientific community needs to create improved large-scale datasets and more flexible data structures that enable the integration of information across and within spatial scales; develop new and advanced models that support the assessment of longitudinal and lateral hydrological connectivity; and provide an accessible modeling environment for researchers, decision makers, and practitioners. As a contribution, we here present a new modeling framework that integrates hydrographic baseline data at a global scale (enhanced HydroSHEDS layers and coupled datasets) with new modeling tools, specifically a river network routing model (HydroROUT) that is currently under development. The resulting ‘hydro-spatial fabric’ is designed to provide an avenue for advanced hydro-ecological applications at large scales in a consistent and highly versatile way. Preliminary results from case studies to assess human impacts on water quality and the effects of dams on river fragmentation and downstream flow regulation illustrate the potential of this combined data-and-modeling framework to conduct novel research in the fields of aquatic ecology, biogeochemistry, geo-statistical modeling, or pollution and health risk assessments. The global scale outcomes are at a previously unachieved spatial resolution of 500 m and can thus support local planning and decision making in many of the world's large river basins. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global river hydrography and network routing: baseline data and new approaches to study the world's large river systems

. Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of timescale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13 762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite- and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0 % of the stations and a median R of 0.67 vs. 0.44–0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments ( http://www.gloh2o.org .

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MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

Previsão de Vazão Afluente a um Reservatório Utilizando Previsão Quantitativa de Chuva

This study aims to estimate the groundwater recharge rates in the Ibicui Watershed, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, using baseflow separation method. The watershed’s main aquifer is the Guarani Aquifer System, in its confined areas (West) and outcrop (Central). The baseflow separation was made with the Eckhardt (2005) numerical filter, with historical streamflow data released by the National Water Agency. The recharge estimates were compared with the geological, hydrogeological and soil found in the study area. Recharge rates ranged from 88 mm/year to 378.7 mm/year (13% and 47% respectively of the effective precipitation in the sub-watersheds, and 6% to 21% of total precipitation). The results showed that the higher recharge rates were found in the geological units with higher transmissivity and more permeable soils, and with higher average precipitation. On the other hand, sub-watersheds with low recharge rates showed permeable geologic units and crystal units, soils with high clay content and low average precipitation.

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Estimativa de recarga subterrânea a partir da separação de escoamento de base na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Ibicuí (América do Sul)

An accurate comprehension of celerity (flood wave speed) dynamics is a key step for understanding flood wave propagation in rivers. We present the results of empirically estimated celerity values i...

Empirical assessment of flood wave celerity–discharge relationships at local and reach scales

Integração do Modelo Hidrológico para Grandes Bacias MGB IPH e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica para suporte à decisão de outorga de direito de uso da água

This study assesses incremental benefits that might be obtained from the use of short-term and long-term streamflow forecasts in the operation of a multipurpose reservoir focusing on two water uses: flood control and power generation. The Três Marias dam, in the São Francisco river basin, was selected for study, primarily because of the availability of short-term streamflow forecast data from previous work. This streamflow forecast was estimated with a distributed hydrological model that uses a combination of observed precipitation and quantitative precipitation forecast generated by an ETA regional model as input data, and it will here be referred to as real short-term forecast. In order to quantify the benefits of forecasts, two simulation models of reservoir operation were used. The first model defines reservoir operation without using forecasts. Meanwhile, the second model considers available forecasts in the reservoir operation. The time step used in simulation was one day. Operation rules, in the form of linear rulecurves were used in reservoir operation with and without forecast. The rule-curves were optimized through a parameterization, simulation and optimization approach with an evolutionary algorithm. Results with “perfect” forecasts (considering observed flows as a forecast) show that an 8% improvement in hydropower generation can occur if longterm forecasts are considered with a two-month horizon, and if the operation is set very early in advance. The operation based on short-term forecasts has less benefits, but they are still significant. For instance, a short-term forecast with a 12-day lead time performed weekly has an incremental hydropower generation of 4.45%. Those benefits were achieved without loss of flood control performance. The benefits achieved with real short-term forecasts were lower than those with perfect short-term forecasts, as expected. However, benefits were still achieved with the real shortterm forecasts, that could be 50% higher than those expected with the perfect flow forecasts and, consequently, the reduction of increased benefit is relatively small in the period analyzed. Results are promising and show clear advantages in using quantitative precipitation forecasts to perform streamflow forecasts in multipurpose reservoir

Walter Collischonn

Papers

Previsão de Vazão Afluente a um Reservatório Utilizando Previsão Quantitativa de Chuva

Estimativa de recarga subterrânea a partir da separação de escoamento de base na bacia hidrográfica do Rio Ibicuí (América do Sul)

Empirical assessment of flood wave celerity–discharge relationships at local and reach scales

Integração do Modelo Hidrológico para Grandes Bacias MGB IPH e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica para suporte à decisão de outorga de direito de uso da água

Avaliação dos Benefícios de Previsões de Vazão na Operação de Reservatórios