The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive presentation and interpretation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and its numerical implementation. The EnKF has a large user group, and numerous publications have discussed applications and theoretical aspects of it. This paper reviews the important results from these studies and also presents new ideas and alternative interpretations which further explain the success of the EnKF. In addition to providing the theoretical framework needed for using the EnKF, there is also a focus on the algorithmic formulation and optimal numerical implementation. A program listing is given for some of the key subroutines. The paper also touches upon specific issues such as the use of nonlinear measurements, in situ profiles of temperature and salinity, and data which are available with high frequency in time. An ensemble based optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is presented as a cost-effective approach which may serve as an alternative to the EnKF in some applications. A fairly extensive discussion is devoted to the use of time correlated model errors and the estimation of model bias.

The Ensemble Kalman Filter: Theoretical formulation and practical implementation

On behalf of Mr. Koichiro Matsuura, Director-General of UNESCO, it is my great pleasure to welcome you all to this international scientific conference. Drylands are often considered fragile ecosystems, yet they have a remarkable resilience to stress. They are home to unique and well-adapted plant and animal species that we need to conserve. Some of the world’s greatest cultures and belief systems have originated in drylands. On the other hand, desertification and land degradation in drylands often result in poverty and cause environmental refugees to abandon their homes. These problems can only be addressed in a holistic manner, based on sound scientific research and findings. Solutions to the problems of dryland degradation need to be communicated as widely as possible through education at all levels. These are many reasons why UNESCO – within its mandate of science, education, culture and communication – took the intiative to organize this conference. And we are glad that so many partners have responded to our call. UNESCO considers this conference as its main contribution to the observance of the International Year of Deserts and Desertification in 2006. We have deliberately chosen the title ‘The Future of Drylands’ as we feel it is time to redefine our priorities for science, education and governance in the drylands based on 50 years of scientific research in arid and semi-arid zones. In fact UNESCO has one of the longest traditions, within the UN system, of addressing dryland problems from an interdisciplinary, scientific point of view. In 1955, the ‘International Arid Land Meetings’ were held in Socorro, New Mexico (USA). They were organized by the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), sponsored by UNESCO and supported by the Rockefeller Foundation. One important output of the International Arid Land Meetings was a book entitled The Future of Drylands, edited by Gilbert F. White and published in

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

The Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS), launched in 2003 and concluded by the PUB Symposium 2012 held in Delft (23–25 October 2012), set out to shift the scientific culture of hydrology towards improved scientific understanding of hydrological processes, as well as associated uncertainties and the development of models with increasing realism and predictive power. This paper reviews the work that has been done under the six science themes of the PUB Decade and outlines the challenges ahead for the hydrological sciences community.Editor D. KoutsoyiannisCitation Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H.H.G., Bloschl, G., McDonnell, J.J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J.W., Arheimer, B., Blume, T., Clark, M.P., Ehret, U., Fenicia, F., Freer, J.E., Gelfan, A., Gupta, H.V., Hughes, D.A., Hut, R.W., Montanari, A., Pande, S., Tetzlaff, D., Troch, P.A., Uhlenbrook, S., Wagener, T., Winsemius, H.C., Woods, R.A., Zehe, E., and Cudennec, C., 2013. A d...

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A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review

Despite significant recent advancements, global hydrological models and their input databases still show limited capabilities in supporting many spatially detailed research questions and integrated assessments, such as required in freshwater ecology or applied water resources management. In order to address these challenges, the scientific community needs to create improved large-scale datasets and more flexible data structures that enable the integration of information across and within spatial scales; develop new and advanced models that support the assessment of longitudinal and lateral hydrological connectivity; and provide an accessible modeling environment for researchers, decision makers, and practitioners. As a contribution, we here present a new modeling framework that integrates hydrographic baseline data at a global scale (enhanced HydroSHEDS layers and coupled datasets) with new modeling tools, specifically a river network routing model (HydroROUT) that is currently under development. The resulting ‘hydro-spatial fabric’ is designed to provide an avenue for advanced hydro-ecological applications at large scales in a consistent and highly versatile way. Preliminary results from case studies to assess human impacts on water quality and the effects of dams on river fragmentation and downstream flow regulation illustrate the potential of this combined data-and-modeling framework to conduct novel research in the fields of aquatic ecology, biogeochemistry, geo-statistical modeling, or pollution and health risk assessments. The global scale outcomes are at a previously unachieved spatial resolution of 500 m and can thus support local planning and decision making in many of the world's large river basins. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Global river hydrography and network routing: baseline data and new approaches to study the world's large river systems

. Current global precipitation (P) datasets do not take full advantage of the complementary nature of satellite and reanalysis data. Here, we present Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) version 1.1, a global P dataset for the period 1979–2015 with a 3-hourly temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution, specifically designed for hydrological modeling. The design philosophy of MSWEP was to optimally merge the highest quality P data sources available as a function of timescale and location. The long-term mean of MSWEP was based on the CHPclim dataset but replaced with more accurate regional datasets where available. A correction for gauge under-catch and orographic effects was introduced by inferring catchment-average P from streamflow (Q) observations at 13 762 stations across the globe. The temporal variability of MSWEP was determined by weighted averaging of P anomalies from seven datasets; two based solely on interpolation of gauge observations (CPC Unified and GPCC), three on satellite remote sensing (CMORPH, GSMaP-MVK, and TMPA 3B42RT), and two on atmospheric model reanalysis (ERA-Interim and JRA-55). For each grid cell, the weight assigned to the gauge-based estimates was calculated from the gauge network density, while the weights assigned to the satellite- and reanalysis-based estimates were calculated from their comparative performance at the surrounding gauges. The quality of MSWEP was compared against four state-of-the-art gauge-adjusted P datasets (WFDEI-CRU, GPCP-1DD, TMPA 3B42, and CPC Unified) using independent P data from 125 FLUXNET tower stations around the globe. MSWEP obtained the highest daily correlation coefficient (R) among the five P datasets for 60.0 % of the stations and a median R of 0.67 vs. 0.44–0.59 for the other datasets. We further evaluated the performance of MSWEP using hydrological modeling for 9011 catchments ( http://www.gloh2o.org .

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MSWEP: 3-hourly 0.25° global gridded precipitation (1979–2015) by merging gauge, satellite, and reanalysis data

Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America

https://www.abrh.org.br/SGCv3/UserFiles/Sumarios/b8a64474d6220a2218e1575774de5c94_2ff93b824084515ac727e49d7d740b68.pdf

Mudanças climáticas e vazões extremas na Bacia do Rio Paraná / Climate Change and Extreme Streamflows in Paraná River Basin

Hydrological models are capable of representing basin scale processes through mathematic equations. Among them, flow routing is important, especially for large-scale basins. Flow routing methods used in hydrologic models are commonly simplified, and show satisfactory results in most cases. However, low slope rivers, rivers with backwater effects, or rivers with large flood plains cannot be well represented by simplified flow routing methods. An alternative for them is the full Saint-Venant equations model (hydrodynamic model). Nevertheless, this model demands more input data and its equations are more complex. An easier option than the full Saint-Venant equations model is the Inertial model, which ignores the inertial term from the Momentum equation. This paper presents an improvement of the MGB-IPH hydrologic model, where the simplified flow routing method is replaced by the Inertial model. Furthermore, this paper shows a methodology to represent island sand/or bifurcations in rivers. The Araguaia river basin was selected as a case study due to its particular physical characteristics. Results of the MGB-IPH with Inertial flow routing model were compared to conventional MGB-IPH Muskingum-Cunge method results, and to observed flow data. General outcomes show that observed flow data are better represented by the new improved MGB-IPH model. Furthermore, the simulated flood plain areas were visually well represented in comparison with MODIS imagery

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Modelagem hidrológica e hidráulica de grande escala com propagação inercial de vazões

This paper presents some reflections over the in-stream flow requirements subject, and aims to prove the insufficiency of the traditional in-stream flow criterion, as a unique reference value for every year and every season. The amount of water necessary to sustain riverine ecosystems are highly variable in time, so the in-stream flow requirements criteria should consider not only the low flow situations but also the other hydrological regime parts. A methodology is presented which may be an ecological sustainable water management tool, and that has been applied in North America. Challenges presented by the future implementation of such methodology in Brazil are presented and some research opportunities are highlighted. Palavras chave regime hidrologico; vazao ecologica; sustentabilidade ambiental Instituto de Pesquisas Hidraulicas–UFRGS. Av. Bento Goncalves 9500. Porto Alegre. CEP 91.501-970. Fone: (51) 3316 7511. email: collischonn@iph.ufrgs.br 2 Instituto de Pesquisas Hidraulicas – UFRGS. Doutorando. Rua Pelotas, 420/23 Floresta. Porto Alegre – RS. CEP 90.220-110. Fone: (51) 3227-4364. e-mail: sgagra@terra.com.br 3 The Nature Conservancy – SHIN CA 05 Conjunto J Bloco B salas 301/309 Brasilia DF – 71503-505 – gfreitas@tnc.org.br 4 FEMA MT – Diretoria de Recursos Hidricos – gabriela@fema.mt.gov.br 5 FURG Fund Univ Fed. do Rio Grande Setor de Hidraulica e Saneamento Departamento de Fisica. Av. Italia km 8/sn. Rio Grande/RS. rutineia@gmail.com

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Em busca do hidrograma ecológico

This study provides a spatio-temporal analysis of the great floods that occurred in South America in 1983 using hydrometeorological data and outputs from a continental-scale hydrological-hydrodynam...

Walter Collischonn

Papers

Potential skill of continental-scale, medium-range ensemble streamflow forecasts for flood prediction in South America

Mudanças climáticas e vazões extremas na Bacia do Rio Paraná / Climate Change and Extreme Streamflows in Paraná River Basin

Modelagem hidrológica e hidráulica de grande escala com propagação inercial de vazões

Em busca do hidrograma ecológico

The great 1983 floods in South American large rivers: a continental hydrological modelling approach