Abstract A two-dimensional version of the Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model has been applied to Winter Monsoon Experiment data in order to simulate the diurnally occurring convection observed over the South China Sea. The domain includes a representation of part of Borneo as well as the sea so that the model can simulate the initiation of convection. Also included in the model are parameterizations of mesoscale ice phase and moisture processes and longwave and shortwave radiation with a diurnal cycle. This allows use of the model to test the relative importance of various heating mechanisms to the stratiform cloud deck, which typically occupies several hundred kilometers of the domain. Frank and Cohen's cumulus parameterization scheme is employed to represent vital unresolved vertical transports in the convective area. The major conclusions are: Ice phase processes are important in determining the level of maximum large-scale heating and vertical motion because there is a strong anvil componen...

Numerical study of convection observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model [presentation]

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) quantifies the amount of atmospheric carbon fixed by plants and accumulated as biomass. Previous studies have shown that climate constraints were relaxing with increasing temperature and solar radiation, allowing an upward trend in NPP from 1982 through 1999. The past decade (2000 to 2009) has been the warmest since instrumental measurements began, which could imply continued increases in NPP; however, our estimates suggest a reduction in the global NPP of 0.55 petagrams of carbon. Large-scale droughts have reduced regional NPP, and a drying trend in the Southern Hemisphere has decreased NPP in that area, counteracting the increased NPP over the Northern Hemisphere. A continued decline in NPP would not only weaken the terrestrial carbon sink, but it would also intensify future competition between food demand and proposed biofuel production.

Drought-Induced Reduction in Global Terrestrial Net Primary Production from 2000 Through 2009

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.

/pdf/trajectories-of-the-earth-system-in-the-anthropocene-18f69bswg3.pdf

Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene.

Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Without CO2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/114/35/9326.full.pdf

Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

Satellite data show increasing leaf area of vegetation due to direct (human land-use management) and indirect factors (climate change, CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, recovery from natural disturbances, etc.). Among these, climate change and CO2 fertilization effect seem to be the dominant drivers. However, recent satellite data (2000-2017) reveal a greening pattern that is strikingly prominent in China and India, and overlapping with croplands world-wide. China alone accounts for 25% of the global net increase in leaf area with only 6.6% of global vegetated area. The greening in China is from forests (42%) and croplands (32%), but in India is mostly from croplands (82%) with minor contribution from forests (4.4%). China is engineering ambitious programs to conserve and expand forests with the goal of mitigating land degradation, air pollution and climate change. Food production in China and India has increased by over 35% since 2000 mostly due to increasing harvested area through multiple cropping facilitated by fertilizer use and surface/ground-water irrigation. Our results indicate that the direct factor is a key driver of the "Greening Earth", accounting for over a third, and likely more, of the observed net increase in green leaf area. They highlight the need for realistic representation of human land-use practices in Earth system models.

/pdf/china-and-india-lead-in-greening-of-the-world-through-land-4ntzgbnoyk.pdf

China and India lead in greening of the world through land-use management

In the recent IPCC assessment, multi-model ensembles (AMA) were constructed with equal weights given to Earth system models, without considering the performance of each model at reproducing current conditions. Here, we use Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to construct a weighted model ensemble for runoff projections. Higher weights are given to models with better performance in estimating historical decadal mean runoff. Using the BMA method, we find that by the end of this century, the increase of global runoff (9.8 ± 1.5%) under RCP8.5 is significantly lower than estimated from AMA (12.2 ± 1.3%). BMA presents a less severe runoff increase than AMA at northern high latitudes and a more severe decrease in Amazonia. Runoff decrease in Amazonia is stronger than the inter-model difference. The inter-model difference in runoff changes is mainly caused by precipitation differences among models, but also by evapotranspiration differences at the high northern latitudes.

/pdf/regional-patterns-of-future-runoff-changes-from-earth-system-2g3hc5ymzq.pdf

Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation

Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere

There is an increasing demand to integrate land surface temperature (LST) into climate research due to its global coverage, which requires a comprehensive knowledge of its distinctive characteristics compared to near-surface air temperature (Tair). Using satellite observations and in situ station-based data sets, we conducted a global-scale assessment of the spatial and seasonal variations in the difference between daily maximum LST and daily maximum Tair (delta(T), LST - Tair) during 2003-2014. Spatially, LST is generally higher than Tair over arid and sparsely vegetated regions in the middle-low latitudes, but LST is lower than Tair in tropical rainforests due to strong evaporative cooling, and in the high-latitude regions due to snow-induced radiative cooling. Seasonally, delta(T) is negative in tropical regions throughout the year, while it displays a pronounced seasonality in both the midlatitudes and boreal regions. The seasonality in the midlatitudes is a result of the asynchronous responses of LST and Tair to the seasonal cycle of radiation and vegetation abundance, whereas in the boreal regions, seasonality is mainly caused by the change in snow cover. Our study identified substantial spatial heterogeneity and seasonality in delta(T), as well as its determinant environmental drivers, and thus provides a useful reference for monitoring near-surface air temperature changes using remote sensing, particularly in remote regions.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2016JD025366

Spatiotemporal variations in the difference between satellite-observed daily maximum land surface temperature and station-based daily maximum near-surface air temperature

Forzieri et al. (Reports, 16 June 2017, p. 1180) used satellite data to show that boreal greening caused regional warming. We show that this positive sensitivity of temperature to the greening can be derived from the positive response of vegetation to boreal warming, which indicates that results from a statistical regression with satellite data should be carefully interpreted.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/360/6394/eaap7950.full.pdf

Comment on "Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth".

National Natural Science Foundation of China [41530528, 41561134016]; 111 Project; National Youth Top-notch Talent Support Program in China; European Research Council Synergy Grant [ERC-2013-SyG-610028 IMBALANCE-P]

Xu Lian

Papers

Regional patterns of future runoff changes from Earth system models constrained by observation

Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere

Spatiotemporal variations in the difference between satellite-observed daily maximum land surface temperature and station-based daily maximum near-surface air temperature

Comment on "Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth".

Seasonal Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Cycle to Climate Variations in CMIP5 Models: Evaluation and Projection