In 1974 an article appeared in Science magazine with the dry-sounding title “Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” by a pair of psychologists who were not well known outside their discipline of decision theory. In it Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman introduced the world to Prospect Theory, which mapped out how humans actually behave when faced with decisions about gains and losses, in contrast to how economists assumed that people behave. Prospect Theory turned Economics on its head by demonstrating through a series of ingenious experiments that people are much more concerned with losses than they are with gains, and that framing a choice from one perspective or the other will result in decisions that are exactly the opposite of each other, even if the outcomes are monetarily the same. Prospect Theory led cognitive psychology in a new direction that began to uncover other human biases in thinking that are probably not learned but are part of our brain’s wiring.

Thinking fast and slow.

Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

The theory of precautionary saving is shown in this paper to be isomorphic to the Arrow-Pratt theory of risk aversion, making possible the application of a large body of knowledge about risk aversion to precautionary saving, and more generally, to the theory of optimal choice under risk In particular, a measure of the strength of precautionary saving motive analogous to the Arrow-Pratt measure of risk aversion is used to establish a number of new propositions about precautionary saving, and to give a new interpretation of the Oreze-Modigliani substitution effect

Precautionary Saving in the Small and in the Large

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity – which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common-method variance, and measurement error – renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation could be confounded; these methods include fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66% and up to 90% of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.

On making causal claims : A review and recommendations

by J. Biggs and C. Tang, Maidenhead, England,
Open University Press, 2007, 360 pp., £29.99, ISBN-13: 978-0-335-22126-4

Teaching for quality learning at university

This article follows the progress of a large and nationally representative sample of American nascent entrepreneurs – identified in the initial interview of the Panel Study of Entrepreneurial Dynamics (PSED) – over the next 12 months of the panel. We develop a novel theoretical framework based on maximisation of expected utility and the value of waiting, and estimate it to reveal which personal and economic characteristics are associated with venture start-up – and which are associated with remaining a nascent entrepreneur, or giving up entirely. The value of waiting turns out to play a key role in helping us understand what happens to nascent entrepreneurs. We discuss the implications of our results for entrepreneurs, lenders, business start-up support agencies and policy-makers.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/40229491.pdf

What Happens to Nascent Entrepreneurs? An Econometric Analysis of the PSED

This study explores the simultaneous relationship between corporate cash holdings and dividend policy using a large sample of around 400 non-financial firms for the period from 1991 to 2008. The results show that cash holdings are affected by dividends, leverage, growth, size, risk, profitability, and working capital ratio. Dividend policy is affected by cash, leverage, growth, size, risk, and profit. When controlling for simultaneity, dividend payments do not appear to significantly affect cash holdings, nor do cash holdings affect dividend policy. The empirical analysis suggests that simultaneity is crucial in analyzing corporate cash holdings and dividend policy.

Corporate cash holdings and dividend payments: evidence from simultaneous analysis

The empirical mean–variance evidence comparing the performance of Socially Responsible Investments (SRI) and conventional investments suggests that there is no significant difference between the two. This paper re-examines the problem in the context of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance (MCSD), which can accommodate any return distribution or concave utility function. Our results provide strong evidence that there is a financial price to be paid for socially responsible investing. Indices composed of socially responsible firms are MCSD dominated by trademarked indices composed of conventional firms as well as by indices carefully matched by size and industry with the firms in the SRI indices. Zero cost portfolios created by shorting the SRI index and using the proceeds to invest in the conventional index generate higher average returns, lower variance and higher skewness than either of the two indices standing alone. They also MCSD dominate the SRI and conventional indices standing alone.

/pdf/does-it-pay-to-be-ethical-evidence-from-the-ftse4good-2jv57lugzm.pdf

Does it pay to be ethical? Evidence from the FTSE4Good

Firm-level determinants of gender diversity in the boardrooms: Evidence from some emerging markets

We analyse the effects of wage uncertainty on the labour supply of self-employed workers, using PSID data on self-employed American males. The standard deviation of past wages, as a measure of wage uncertainty, is the key determinant of male self-employed labour supply, with a significant positive effect. In contrast there is no effect from the (instrumented) wage or other explanatory variables. Our findings are consistent with the self-employed ‘self-insuring’ in response to greater uncertainty by working longer hours, and they can also help explain why self-employed Americans work longer average hours for lower average wages than their employee counterparts.

/pdf/wage-uncertainty-and-the-labour-supply-of-self-employed-3e67cye1rp.pdf

Yacine Belghitar

Papers

What Happens to Nascent Entrepreneurs? An Econometric Analysis of the PSED

Corporate cash holdings and dividend payments: evidence from simultaneous analysis

Does it pay to be ethical? Evidence from the FTSE4Good

Firm-level determinants of gender diversity in the boardrooms: Evidence from some emerging markets

Wage Uncertainty and the Labour Supply of Self‐Employed Workers*