Short-term traffic forecast is one of the essential issues in intelligent transportation system. Accurate forecast result enables commuters make appropriate travel modes, travel routes, and departure time, which is meaningful in traffic management. To promote the forecast accuracy, a feasible way is to develop a more effective approach for traffic data analysis. The availability of abundant traffic data and computation power emerge in recent years, which motivates us to improve the accuracy of short-term traffic forecast via deep learning approaches. A novel traffic forecast model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) network is proposed. Different from conventional forecast models, the proposed LSTM network considers temporal-spatial correlation in traffic system via a two-dimensional network which is composed of many memory units. A comparison with other representative forecast models validates that the proposed LSTM network can achieve a better performance.

https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1049/iet-its.2016.0208

LSTM network: a deep learning approach for short-term traffic forecast

In the era of the Internet of Things (IoT), an enormous amount of sensing devices collect and/or generate various sensory data over time for a wide range of fields and applications. Based on the nature of the application, these devices will result in big or fast/real-time data streams. Applying analytics over such data streams to discover new information, predict future insights, and make control decisions is a crucial process that makes IoT a worthy paradigm for businesses and a quality-of-life improving technology. In this paper, we provide a thorough overview on using a class of advanced machine learning techniques, namely deep learning (DL), to facilitate the analytics and learning in the IoT domain. We start by articulating IoT data characteristics and identifying two major treatments for IoT data from a machine learning perspective, namely IoT big data analytics and IoT streaming data analytics. We also discuss why DL is a promising approach to achieve the desired analytics in these types of data and applications. The potential of using emerging DL techniques for IoT data analytics are then discussed, and its promises and challenges are introduced. We present a comprehensive background on different DL architectures and algorithms. We also analyze and summarize major reported research attempts that leveraged DL in the IoT domain. The smart IoT devices that have incorporated DL in their intelligence background are also discussed. DL implementation approaches on the fog and cloud centers in support of IoT applications are also surveyed. Finally, we shed light on some challenges and potential directions for future research. At the end of each section, we highlight the lessons learned based on our experiments and review of the recent literature.

Deep Learning for IoT Big Data and Streaming Analytics: A Survey

This paper proposes a convolutional neural network (CNN)-based method that learns traffic as images and predicts large-scale, network-wide traffic speed with a high accuracy. Spatiotemporal traffic dynamics are converted to images describing the time and space relations of traffic flow via a two-dimensional time-space matrix. A CNN is applied to the image following two consecutive steps: abstract traffic feature extraction and network-wide traffic speed prediction. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated by taking two real-world transportation networks, the second ring road and north-east transportation network in Beijing, as examples, and comparing the method with four prevailing algorithms, namely, ordinary least squares, k-nearest neighbors, artificial neural network, and random forest, and three deep learning architectures, namely, stacked autoencoder, recurrent neural network, and long-short-term memory network. The results show that the proposed method outperforms other algorithms by an average accuracy improvement of 42.91% within an acceptable execution time. The CNN can train the model in a reasonable time and, thus, is suitable for large-scale transportation networks.

Learning Traffic as Images: A Deep Convolutional Neural Network for Large-Scale Transportation Network Speed Prediction.

Accurate and real-time traffic flow prediction is important in Intelligent Transportation System (ITS), especially for traffic control. Existing models such as ARMA, ARIMA are mainly linear models and cannot describe the stochastic and nonlinear nature of traffic flow. In recent years, deep-learning-based methods have been applied as novel alternatives for traffic flow prediction. However, which kind of deep neural networks is the most appropriate model for traffic flow prediction remains unsolved. In this paper, we use Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) neural network (NN) methods to predict short-term traffic flow, and experiments demonstrate that Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based deep learning methods such as LSTM and GRU perform better than auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that GRU is applied to traffic flow prediction.

Using LSTM and GRU neural network methods for traffic flow prediction

The field of machine learning is witnessing its golden era as deep learning slowly becomes the leader in this domain. Deep learning uses multiple layers to represent the abstractions of data to build computational models. Some key enabler deep learning algorithms such as generative adversarial networks, convolutional neural networks, and model transfers have completely changed our perception of information processing. However, there exists an aperture of understanding behind this tremendously fast-paced domain, because it was never previously represented from a multiscope perspective. The lack of core understanding renders these powerful methods as black-box machines that inhibit development at a fundamental level. Moreover, deep learning has repeatedly been perceived as a silver bullet to all stumbling blocks in machine learning, which is far from the truth. This article presents a comprehensive review of historical and recent state-of-the-art approaches in visual, audio, and text processing; social network analysis; and natural language processing, followed by the in-depth analysis on pivoting and groundbreaking advances in deep learning applications. It was also undertaken to review the issues faced in deep learning such as unsupervised learning, black-box models, and online learning and to illustrate how these challenges can be transformed into prolific future research avenues.

A Survey on Deep Learning: Algorithms, Techniques, and Applications

Neural networks have been extensively applied to short-term traffic prediction in the past years. This study proposes a novel architecture of neural networks, Long Short-Term Neural Network (LSTM NN), to capture nonlinear traffic dynamic in an effective manner. The LSTM NN can overcome the issue of back-propagated error decay through memory blocks, and thus exhibits the superior capability for time series prediction with long temporal dependency. In addition, the LSTM NN can automatically determine the optimal time lags. To validate the effectiveness of LSTM NN, travel speed data from traffic microwave detectors in Beijing are used for model training and testing. A comparison with different topologies of dynamic neural networks as well as other prevailing parametric and nonparametric algorithms suggests that LSTM NN can achieve the best prediction performance in terms of both accuracy and stability.

Long short-term memory neural network for traffic speed prediction using remote microwave sensor data

Understanding how congestion at one location can cause ripples throughout large-scale transportation network is vital for transportation researchers and practitioners to pinpoint traffic bottlenecks for congestion mitigation. Traditional studies rely on either mathematical equations or simulation techniques to model traffic congestion dynamics. However, most of the approaches have limitations, largely due to unrealistic assumptions and cumbersome parameter calibration process. With the development of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) and Internet of Things (IoT), transportation data become more and more ubiquitous. This triggers a series of data-driven research to investigate transportation phenomena. Among them, deep learning theory is considered one of the most promising techniques to tackle tremendous high-dimensional data. This study attempts to extend deep learning theory into large-scale transportation network analysis. A deep Restricted Boltzmann Machine and Recurrent Neural Network architecture is utilized to model and predict traffic congestion evolution based on Global Positioning System (GPS) data from taxi. A numerical study in Ningbo, China is conducted to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. Results show that the prediction accuracy can achieve as high as 88% within less than 6 minutes when the model is implemented in a Graphic Processing Unit (GPU)-based parallel computing environment. The predicted congestion evolution patterns can be visualized temporally and spatially through a map-based platform to identify the vulnerable links for proactive congestion mitigation.

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Large-scale transportation network congestion evolution prediction using deep learning theory.

In this paper, we construct a new car-following model with inter-vehicle communication (IVC) to study the driving behavior under an accident. The numerical results show that the proposed model can qualitatively describe the effects of IVC on each vehicle’s speed, acceleration, movement trail, and headway under an accident and that the new model can overcome the full velocity difference (FVD) model’s shortcoming that collisions occur under an accident, which illustrates that the new model can better describe the driving behavior under an accident than the FVD model.

A new car-following model with consideration of inter-vehicle communication

In this paper, we develop a new car-following model with consideration of varying road condition based on the empirical data. Firstly, we explore the effects of road condition on uniform flow from analytical and numerical perspectives. The results indicate that road condition has great influences on uniform flow, i.e., good road condition can enhance the velocity and flow and their increments will increase when road condition becomes better; bad road conditions will reduce the velocity and flow and their reductions will increase when road condition turns worse. Secondly, we study the effects of road conditions on the starting and braking processes. The numerical results show that good road condition will speed up the two processes and that bad road condition will slow down the two processes. Finally, we study the effects of road condition on small perturbation. The numerical results indicate that the stop-and-go phenomena resulted by small perturbation will become more serious when the road condition becomes better.

Yunpeng Wang

Papers

Long short-term memory neural network for traffic speed prediction using remote microwave sensor data

Large-scale transportation network congestion evolution prediction using deep learning theory.

A new car-following model with consideration of inter-vehicle communication

A new car-following model accounting for varying road condition

An extended car-following model with consideration of the reliability of inter-vehicle communication