Summary for policymakers Technical summary 1. The climate system - an overview 2. Observed climate variability and change 3. The carbon cycle and atmospheric CO2 4. Atmospheric chemistry and greenhouse gases 5. Aerosols, their direct and indirect effects 6. Radiative forcing of climate change 7. Physical climate processes and feedbacks 8. Model evaluation 9. Projections of future climate change 10. Regional climate simulation - evaluation and projections 11. Changes in sea level 12. Detection of climate change and attribution of causes 13. Climate scenario development 14. Advancing our understanding Glossary Index Appendix.

Climate change 2001: the scientific basis

This paper describes the contents of the 2016 edition of the HITRAN molecular spectroscopic compilation. The new edition replaces the previous HITRAN edition of 2012 and its updates during the intervening years. The HITRAN molecular absorption compilation is composed of five major components: the traditional line-by-line spectroscopic parameters required for high-resolution radiative-transfer codes, infrared absorption cross-sections for molecules not yet amenable to representation in a line-by-line form, collision-induced absorption data, aerosol indices of refraction, and general tables such as partition sums that apply globally to the data. The new HITRAN is greatly extended in terms of accuracy, spectral coverage, additional absorption phenomena, added line-shape formalisms, and validity. Moreover, molecules, isotopologues, and perturbing gases have been added that address the issues of atmospheres beyond the Earth. Of considerable note, experimental IR cross-sections for almost 300 additional molecules important in different areas of atmospheric science have been added to the database. The compilation can be accessed through www.hitran.org. Most of the HITRAN data have now been cast into an underlying relational database structure that offers many advantages over the long-standing sequential text-based structure. The new structure empowers the user in many ways. It enables the incorporation of an extended set of fundamental parameters per transition, sophisticated line-shape formalisms, easy user-defined output formats, and very convenient searching, filtering, and plotting of data. A powerful application programming interface making use of structured query language (SQL) features for higher-level applications of HITRAN is also provided.

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The HITRAN 2008 molecular spectroscopic database

Clouds and Aerosols

A new version of the atmosphere–ocean general circulation model cooperatively produced by the Japanese research community, known as the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), has recently been developed. A century-long control experiment was performed using the new version (MIROC5) with the standard resolution of the T85 atmosphere and 1° ocean models. The climatological mean state and variability are then compared with observations and those in a previous version (MIROC3.2) with two different resolutions (medres, hires), coarser and finer than the resolution of MIROC5. A few aspects of the mean fields in MIROC5 are similar to or slightly worse than MIROC3.2, but otherwise the climatological features are considerably better. In particular, improvements are found in precipitation, zonal mean atmospheric fields, equatorial ocean subsurface fields, and the simulation of El Nino–Southern Oscillation. The difference between MIROC5 and the previous model is larger than that between th...

/pdf/improved-climate-simulation-by-miroc5-mean-states-yovp0f6kr1.pdf

Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity

[1] Arctic amplification (AA) – the observed enhanced warming in high northern latitudes relative to the northern hemisphere – is evident in lower-tropospheric temperatures and in 1000-to-500 hPa thicknesses. Daily fields of 500 hPa heights from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis are analyzed over N. America and the N. Atlantic to assess changes in north-south (Rossby) wave characteristics associated with AA and the relaxation of poleward thickness gradients. Two effects are identified that each contribute to a slower eastward progression of Rossby waves in the upper-level flow: 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss, but are also apparent in summer, possibly related to earlier snow melt on high-latitude land. Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events that result from prolonged conditions, such as drought, flooding, cold spells, and heat waves.

Effects of Climate Model Mean-State Bias on Blocking Underestimation

A Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model is embedded into large eddy simulations to diagnose the responses of shallow cumulus convection to a small-amplitude large-scale temperature perturbation. The Lagrangian framework allows for a decomposition of the vertical momentum budget and diagnosis of the forces that regulate cloudy updrafts. The results are used to shed light on the parameterization of vertical velocity in convective schemes, where the treatment of the effects of entrainment as well as buoyancy-induced and mechanically induced pressure gradients remains highly uncertain. We show that both buoyancy-induced and mechanically induced pressure gradients are important for the vertical momentum budget of cloudy updrafts, whereas the entrainment dilution term is relatively less important. Based on the analysis of the dominant force balance, we propose a simple model to derive the perturbation pressure gradient forces. We further illustrate that the effective buoyancy and dynamic perturbation pressure can be approximated to a good extent using a simple cylindrical updraft model given the cloud radius. This finding has the potential for improving the parameterization of vertical velocity in convective schemes and the development of a unified scheme for cumulus convection. Plain Language Summary This article employed a new approach to understand what regulates in-cloud vertical velocity distribution, the understanding of which has important implications for improving severe weather predictions such as hail and lightning. Furthermore, a simple cartoon model was proposed to calculate perturbation pressure terms in vertical velocity budget, which allows for advancement in representing clouds in climate models.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018MS001451

The Vertical Momentum Budget of Shallow Cumulus Convection: Insights From a Lagrangian Perspective

The eddy straining mechanism of Shutts (1983; S83) has long been considered a main process for explaining the maintenance of atmospheric blocking. As hypothesized in S83, incoming synoptic eddies experience a meridional straining effect when approaching a split jetstream, and as a result, enhanced PV fluxes reinforce the block. A two-layer QG model is adopted here as a minimal model to conduct mechanism-denial experiments. While transient eddies’ forcing is clearly critical to the formation and maintenance of a block, using a large ensemble, the authors demonstrate that the straining of generic eddies does not maintain blocks, thus challenge the idea of eddy straining serving as a positive feedback for the blocks. These results indicate that specific configurations of the eddy field are required for the maintenance stage. The authors also remark on the main supporting evidence in S83: the second-order induced flow is sensitive to the location of the wavemaker.

https://eartharxiv.org/repository/object/815/download/1797/

Evidence against a general positive eddy feedback in atmospheric blocking

Motivated by the scientific desire to align observations with quantities of physical interest, we survey how scalar importance functions depend on vertically resolved water vapor. Definitions of importance begin from familiar examples of water mass Im and TOA clear-sky outgoing longwave flux IOLR, in order to establish notation and illustrate graphically how the sensitivity profile or ‘‘kernel’’ depends on whether specific humidity S, relative humidity R, or ln(R) are used as measures of vapor. Then, new results on the sensitivity of convective activity Icon to vapor (with implied knock-on effects such as weather prediction skill) are presented. In radiative-convective equilibrium, organized (line-like) convection is much more sensitive to moisture than scattered isotropic convection, but it exists in a drier mean state. The lesson for natural convection may be that organized convection is less susceptible to dryness and can survive and propagate into regions unfavorable for disorganized convection. This counterintuitive interpretive conclusion, with respect to the narrow numerical result behind it, highlights the importance of clarity about what is held constant at what values in sensitivity or susceptibility kernels. Finally, the sensitivities of observable radiance signals Isig for passive remote sensing are considered. While the accuracy of R in the lower free troposphere is crucial for the physical importance scalars, this layer is unfortunately the most difficult to isolate with passive remote sensing: In high emissivity channels, water vapor signals come from too high in the atmosphere (for satellites) or too low (for surface radiometers), while low emissivity channels have poor altitude discrimination and (in the case of satellites) are contaminated by surface emissions. For these reasons, active ranging (LiDAR) is the preferred observing strategy.

Importance Profiles for Water Vapor

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2018JD029510

Zhiming Kuang

Papers

Effects of Climate Model Mean-State Bias on Blocking Underestimation

The Vertical Momentum Budget of Shallow Cumulus Convection: Insights From a Lagrangian Perspective

Evidence against a general positive eddy feedback in atmospheric blocking

Importance Profiles for Water Vapor

Moist Entropy and Water Isotopologues in a Zonal Overturning Circulation Framework of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation