CEMFI

About: CEMFI is a based out in . It is known for research contribution in the topics: Unemployment & Estimator. The organization has 71 authors who have published 499 publications receiving 46553 citations. The organization is also known as: Center for Monetary and Financial Studies.

Valuation of Vix Derivatives

Abstract: We conduct an extensive empirical analysis of VIX derivative valuation models before, during and after the 2008-2009 fi nancial crisis. Since the restrictive mean reversion and heteroskedasticity features of existing models yield large distortions during the crisis, we propose generalisations with a time varying central tendency, jumps and stochastic volatility, analyse their pricing performance, and implications for term structures of VIX futures and volatility "skews". We find that a process for the log of the observed VIX combining central tendency and stochastic volatility reliably prices VIX derivatives. We also uncover a signi cant risk premium that shifts the long run volatility level.

Economic and Regulatory Capital: What is the Difference?

Abstract: This Paper analyses the determinants of regulatory capital (the minimum required by regulation) and economic capital (the capital that shareholders would choose in absence of regulation) in the context of the single risk factor model that underlies the New Basel Capital Accord (Basel II). The results show that economic and regulatory capital do not depend on the same set of variables and do not react in the same way to changes in their common determinants. For plausible parameter values, they are both increasing in the loans' probability of default and loss given default, but variables that affect economic but not regulatory capital, such as the intermediation margin and the cost of capital, can move them significantly apart. The results also show that market discipline, proxied by the coverage of deposit insurance, increases economic capital, although the effect is generally small.

A Model of Takeovers of Foreign Banks

Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of the takeover of a foreign bank by a domestic bank whereby the former becomes a branch of the latter. Each bank is initially supervised by a national agency that cares about closure costs and deposit insurance payouts, and may decide the early closure of the bank on the basis of supervisory information. Under the principle of home country control, the takeover moves responsibility for both the supervision of the foreign bank and the insurance of the foreign deposits to the domestic agency. It is shown that the takeover is more likely to happen if the foreign bank is small (relative to the foreign banking market) and its' investments are risky (relative to those of the domestic bank). Moreover, the takeover is in general welfare improving for both countries.

Synthetic Difference in Differences

Abstract: We present a new perspective on the Synthetic Control (SC) method as a weighted least squares regression estimator with time fixed effects and unit weights. This perspective suggests a generalization with two way (both unit and time) fixed effects, and both unit and time weights, which can be interpreted as a unit and time weighted version of the standard Difference In Differences (DID) estimator. We find that this new Synthetic Difference In Differences (SDID) estimator has attractive properties compared to the SC and DID estimators. Formally we show that our approach has double robustness properties: the SDID estimator is consistent under a wide variety of weighting schemes given a well-specified fixed effects model, and SDID is consistent with appropriately penalized SC weights when the basic fixed effects model is misspecified and instead the true data generating process involves a more general low-rank structure (e.g., a latent factor model). We also present results that justify standard inference based on weighted DID regression. Further generalizations include unit and time weighted factor models.