CEMFI

About: CEMFI is a based out in . It is known for research contribution in the topics: Unemployment & Estimator. The organization has 71 authors who have published 499 publications receiving 46553 citations. The organization is also known as: Center for Monetary and Financial Studies.

Volatiltiy and Links between National Stock Markets

Abstract: The empirical objective of this study is to account for the time-variation the covariances between markets. Using data on sixteen national stock markets, we estimate a multivariate factor model in which the volatility of returns is induced by changing volatility in the orthogonal factors. Excess returns are assumed to depend both on innovations in observable economic variables and on unobservable factors. The risk premium on an asset is a near combination of the risk premia associated with factors. The main empirical finding is that only a small proportion of the time variation in the covariances between national stock markets can be accounted for by observable economic variables. Changes in correlations markets are given primarily by movements in unobservable variables. We also estimate the risk premia for each country, and are able to identify substantial movements in the required return on equity. Our results also suggest that, although inter-correlations between markets have risen since the 1987 stock market crash this is not necessarily evidence of a trend decrease.

The Growth of Cities

Abstract: Why do cities grow in population, surface area, and income per person? Which cities grow faster and why? To these questions, the urban growth literature has offered a variety of answers. Within an integrated framework, this chapter reviews key theories with implications for urban growth. It then relates these theories to empirical evidence on the main drivers of city growth, drawn primarily from the United States and other developed countries. Consistent with the monocentric city model, fewer roads and restrictions on housing supply hinder urban growth. The fact that housing is durable also has important effects on the evolution of cities. In recent decades, cities with better amenities have grown faster. Agglomeration economies and human capital are also important drivers of city growth. Although more human capital, smaller firms, and a greater diversity in production foster urban growth, the exact channels through which those effects percolate are not clearly identified. Finally, shocks also determine the fate of cities. Structural changes affecting the broader economy have left a big footprint on the urban landscape. Small city-specific shocks also appear to matter, consistent with the recent wave of random growth models.

Reforming an insider-outsider labor market: The Spanish experience

Abstract: This paper presents a case study on reforming a very dysfunctional labor market with a deep insider-outsider divide, namely the Spanish case. We show how a dual market, with permanent and temporary employees, makes real reform much harder, and leads to purely marginal changes that do not alter the fundamental features of labour market institutions. While the Great Recession and the start of the sovereign debt crisis have lately triggered two labor reforms, the political economy equilibrium has not allowed them to be transformational enough.

When Credit Dries Up: Job Losses in the Great Recession

Abstract: This paper studies whether the solvency problems of Spain’s weakest Banks during the Great Recession had real effects. Data from the official credit register of the Bank of Spain indicate that those banks curtailed lending well in advance of their bailout. We show the existence of a credit supply shock, controling for firm fixed effects, and assess its impact by comparing the change in employment between 2006 and 2010 at firms that were clients of weak banks to those at comparable non-client firms. Our estimates imply that around 24% of job losses at firms attached to weak banks in our sample are due to this exposure. This accounts for one-half of downsizing at attached surviving firms and one-fifth of losses due to exposed-firm exits.

Resolution of Policy Uncertainty and Sudden Declines in Volatility

Abstract: We introduce downward volatility jumps into a general non-affine modeling framework of the term structure of variance. With variance swaps and S&P 500 returns, we find that downward volatility jumps are associated with a resolution of policy uncertainty, in particular through statements from Federal Open Market Committee meetings and speeches of the Federal Reserve chairman. We also find that such jumps are priced with positive risk premia, which reflect the price of the "put protection" offered by the Federal Reserve. Ignoring downward volatility jumps may lead to an exaggeration of the negative total variance risk premia, hence a biased-interpretation of the price of tail events. We also find variance risk premia tend to be insignificant or even positive at the inception of crises. On the modeling side, we explore the structural differences and relative goodness-of-fits of factor specifications, and find that the log-volatility model with two Ornstein-Uhlenbeck factors and double-sided jumps are superior in capturing volatility dynamics and pricing variance swaps.