Showing papers by "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis published in 1999"

Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models

Abstract: We examine the asymptotic and finite-sample properties of tests for equal forecast accuracy and encompassing applied to 1-step ahead forecasts from nested parametric models. We first derive the asymptotic distributions of two standard tests and one new test of encompassing. Tables of asymptotically valid critical values are provided. Monte Carlo methods are then used to evaluate the size and power of the tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing. The simulations indicate that post-sample tests can be reasonably well sized. Of the post-sample tests considered, the encompassing test proposed in this paper is the most powerful. We conclude with an empirical application regarding the predictive content of unemployment for inflation.

What makes a region entrepreneurial? Evidence from Britain

Abstract: There is a great deal of variation in the levels of entrepreneurship, or rates of self-employment, across the regions of Britain. Over the period 1983–1995, average self-employment in the North, Scotland, and the West Midlands was respectively 25%, 15%, and 15% lower than the national average, whereas in the South West, East Anglia, and Wales it was respectively 28%, 23%, and 21% higher. We develop a theoretical model of regional self-employment, and estimate the roles of labour market conditions, labour force characteristics, industry composition, and region-specific factors such as entrepreneurial human capital. Our results suggest that all of these factors are important, and that regional heterogeneity and regionally correlated disturbances must be accounted for when estimating regional self-employment relationships.

Using Genetic Algorithms to Model the Evolution of Heterogeneous Beliefs

Abstract: We study a general equilibrium system where agents have heterogeneous beliefs concerning realizations of possible outcomes. The actual outcomes feed back into beliefs thus creating a complicated nonlinear system. Beliefs are updated via a genetic algorithm learning process which we interpret as representing communication among agents in the economy. We are able to illustrate a simple principle: genetic algorithms can be implemented so that they represent pure learning effects (i.e., beliefs updating based on realizations of endogenous variables in an environment with heterogeneous beliefs). Agents optimally solve their maximization problem at each date given their beliefs at each date. We report the results of a set of computational experiments in which we find that our population of artificial adaptive agents is usually able to coordinate their beliefs so as to achieve the Pareto superior rational expectations equilibrium of the model.

Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Qualitative Response Models of Time Series: A Gibbs-Sampling Approach to the Bank Prime Rate

Abstract: Previous time series applications of qualitative response models have ignored features of the data, such as conditional heteroscedasticity, that are routinely addressed in time series econometrics of financial data. This article addresses this issue by adding Markov-switching heteroscedasticity to a dynamic ordered probit model of discrete changes in the bank prime lending rate and estimating via the Gibbs sampler. The dynamic ordered probit model of Eichengreen, Watson, and Grossman allows for serial autocorrelation in probit analysis of a time series, and this article demonstrates the relative simplicity of estimating a dynamic ordered probit using the Gibbs sampler instead of the Eichengreen et al. maximum likelihood procedure. In addition, the extension to regime-switching parameters and conditional heteroscedasticity is easy to implement under Gibbs sampling. The article compares tests of goodness of fit between dynamic ordered probit models of the prime rate that have constant variance and condition...

The Contribution of On‐Site Examination Ratings to an Empirical Model of Bank Failures

Abstract: This paper investigates how well regulator examinations predict bank failures and how best to incorporate examination information into an econometric model of time‐to‐failure. We estimate proportional hazard models with time‐varying covariates and find that examiner ratings help explain the failure hazard. Both the overall rating of a bank's condition and management, i.e., the composite CAMELS rating, and ratings of specific components contain information. In addition, we find that the marginal “effect” of ratings is non‐linear, in that the impact of a rating downgrade on the hazard is larger, the weaker a bank's initial rating.

Currency Portfolios and Nominal Exchange Rates in a Dual Currency Search Economy

Abstract: We analyze a dual currency search model in which agents are allowed to hold multiple units of both currencies. Hence, agents hold portfolios of currency. We study equilibria in which the two currencies are identical and equilibria in which the two currencies differ according to the magnitude of the ’inflation tax’ risk associated with each currency. The inflation tax is modeled by having government agents randomly confiscate the two currencies at different rates. We are able to obtain analytical results in a very special case but in general we must rely on numerical methods to solve for the steady-state distributions of currency portfolios, prices and value functions. We find that when one of the currencies has the right amount of ’risk’, equilibria exist in which the safe currency trades for multiple units of the risky currency (pure currency exchange). As a result, the steady state has a distribution of nominal exchange rates. The mean and variance of the nominal exchange rate distribution is based on the fundamentals of the model such as the risk of confiscation, risk preferences, matching probabilities and relative money supplies.

Endogenous export subsidies and welfare under domestic cost heterogeneity

Abstract: We present a model of international market share rivalry where the domestic export subsidy is determined by lobbying. Greater domestic cost heterogeneity leads to a higher subsidy level and a larger domestic market share. However, the relationship between cost heterogeneity and welfare is ambiguous. Starting from a near-symmetric situation, an increase in heterogeneity reduces domestic welfare if the number of domestic firms exceeds some critical value. When starting farther from symmetry, the welfare effect is reversed. Our findings are in contrast with the results from the existing literature where lobbying is ignored.

Customs Union or Free Trade Area? The Role of Political Asymmetries

Abstract: When trade policy is determined endogenously by lobbying, it matters whether countries are arranged into a customs union or a free trade area. This paper compares the two regimes when the member governments are asymmetric in their susceptibilities to lobbying and in their bargaining power within a customs union. In the model, a customs union never leads to lower tariffs for both countries, whereas it can lead to higher tariffs for both.

Identification Failure in the Intertemporal Consumption CAPM

Abstract: Using a general equilibrium representative agent framework developed by Lucas (1978), Hansen and Singleton (1983) studied the behaviour of asset returns and consumption growth with maximum likelihood techniques. The model was rejected, but their work is commonly cited for estimates of the underlying parameters governing risk aversion. This paper studies the robustness of the Hansen and Singleton results to alternative specifications of the model and extensions of the data set. We find that estimates of the risk aversion parameter vary widely across data sets and instrument specifications because the Hansen-Singleton model is nearly nonidentified due to the unpredictability of consumption growth. A natural identifying assumption equates "consumption beta" with the coefficient of relative risk aversion, and leads to estimates which are much better behaved.

Using Genetic Algorithms to Find Technical Trading Rules: A Comment on Risk Adjustment

Abstract: Allen and Karjalainen (1999) used genetic programming to develop optimal ex ante trading rules for the S&P 500 index. They found no evidence that the returns to these rules were higher than buy-and-hold returns but some evidence that the rules had predictive ability. This comment investigates the risk-adjusted usefulness of such rules and more fully characterizes their predictive content. These results extend Allen and Karjalainen's (1999) conclusion by showing that although the rules' relative performance improves, there is no evidence that the rules significantly outperform the buy-and-hold strategy on a risk-adjusted basis. Therefore, the results are consistent with market efficiency. Nevertheless, risk-adjustment techniques should be seriously considered when evaluating trading strategies.

Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination

Abstract: This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We illustrate the problems that can arise by re-examining the findings of Bekaert and Hodrick (1992), who detected evidence of in-sample predictability in international equity and foreign exchange markets using VAR methodology for a variety of countries over the period 1981-1989. The VAR predictions are significantly biased in most out-of-sample forecasts and are conclusively outperformed by a simple benchmark model at horizons of up to six months. This remains true even after corrections for small sample bias and the introduction of Bayesian parameter restrictions. A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that the data are unlikely to have been generated by a stable VAR. This conclusion is supported by an examination of structural break statistics. Implied long-horizon statistics calculated from the VAR parameter estimates are shown to be very unreliable.

Results of a study of the stability of cointegrating relations comprised of broad monetary aggregates

Abstract: There is strong evidence of a stable “money demand” relationship for MZM and M2 through the 1990s Though the M2 relationship breaks down somewhere around 1990, evidence has been accumulating that the disturbance is well characterized as a permanent upward shift in M2 velocity that began around 1990 and was largely over by 1994 This paper’s results support the hypothesis that households permanently reallocated a portion of their wealth from time deposits to mutual funds This reallocation may have been induced by depository restructuring, but it could also be explained by appropriately measured opportunity cost

Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market

Abstract: This paper examines the out-of-sample performance of intraday technical trading strategies selected using two methodologies, a genetic program and an optimized linear forecasting model. When realistic transaction costs and trading hours are taken into account, we find no evidence of excess returns to the trading rules derived with either methodology. Thus, our results are consistent with market efficiency. We do, however, find that the trading rules discover some remarkably stable patterns in the data.

The Extension of International Credit by US Banks: A Disaggregated Analysis, 1988 to 1994

Abstract: We use simultaneous equation estimation techniques to analyze decisions made by 35 US banks with respect to credit extended domestically and to credit extended within 16 foreign countries, 1988-1994. Our results indicate that foreign credit extension by US banks follows the commercial expansion of US businesses abroad and is greater in countries with expanding economies. They are inconsistent with the notion that banks trade off credit activities undertaken domestically and abroad.

Do high interest rates stem capital outflows

Abstract: Conventional wisdom posits that high interest rates stem capital flight and currency depreciation. Some have argued, however that the standard prescription exacerbates the problems. This paper set out a framework for evaluating the conditions under which an increase in domestic interest rates fails to reverse capital outflow. The possibility that high domestic interest rates might have unorthodox effects arises through a risk premium: If raising interest rates increases the possibility associated with default, the result can be a worsening of the country's capital account position.