Showing papers by "International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis published in 1975"

On the notion of political feasibility

Abstract: In a positive, as opposed to a normative or prescriptive, approach to policy analysis, the critical examination of the conditions of feasibility of public policies assumes paramount importance. A proposal is feasible if it satisfies all relevant constraints. But while the notion of economic or technical feasibility can be explicated by pointing to the corresponding constraints, "political feasibility" is generally used in a much less precise sense; and lack of conceptual precision severely restricts its analytical usefulness. For instance, questions of political feasibility are often confused with considerations of political costs or of political opportunity. I argue that the analyst should always be prepared to translate a judgment of political feasibility or infeasibility in terms of the specific political constraints operating in the problem under consideration. In this paper, three main groups of political constraints are considered: those resulting from the limitation of the available political resources; those relating to the permissible distribution of the benefits and costs of a policy (distributional constraints); and those imposed by the institutional framework.

Generalized Utility Independence and Some Implications

Abstract: This paper introduces the concept of generalized utility independence. Subject to various generalized utility independence assumptions, we derive three functional forms for a multiattribute von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u. These are the additive, the multiplicative, and the quasi-additive forms, each of which expresses u as a combination of utility functions defined on the separate attributes. It is demonstrated that if u is unbounded from above and below, then given the three forms, either reversal of preferences over some attributes occurs or else the additive form must hold.

On Any Given Sunday: Fair Competitor Orderings with Maximum Likelihood Methods

Abstract: This article addresses the analytic problem of obtaining fair and accurate comparisons among competitors when many pairs of them have never met and where the average quality of opposition faced may vary widely. The context studied is the National Football League's regular season of 1973. A maximum likelihood methodology is developed which simultaneously: (1) ranks all teams and (2) estimates the probabilities of upsets of various sizes. The methodology is compared with alternative approaches and is modified with experimental extensions.

Migration and the Dynamics of Multiregional Population Systems

Abstract: This paper gives a personal perspective on some models of national settlement systems, and draws attention to the importance of population migration within these models. It includes a discussion of the inadequacies of current models of interurban migration for the analysis of the dynamic interaction between the demographic and economic growth sectors of a system of postindustrial cities. The paper is not, however, a review; instead, the aim is to obtain insights on how to progress towards a framework and a strategy for research that will usefully contribute to the analysis of national settlement policy.Section 2 considers recent developments in multiregional demographic analysis and argues that these are of limited usefulness unless they are integrated with models of regional economic growth. Results are presented which show that multiregional demographic analyses are extremely sensitive to the assumptions about migration movements. Section 3 outlines three models which interrelate demographic and economi...

Decision analysis for the siting of nuclear power plants—The relevance of multiattribute utility theory

Abstract: The necessity for improved decision making concerning the siting and licensing of major power facilities has been accelerated in the past decade by the increased environmental consciousness of the public and by the energy crisis. These problems are exceedingly complex due to their multiple objective nature, the many interest groups, the long-range time horizons, and the inherent uncertainties of the potential impacts of any decision. Along with the relatively objective economic and engineering concerns, clearly the more subjective factors involving safety, environmental, and social issues are crucial to the problem. Hence, the professional judgments and knowledge of experts in these areas should be utilized in analyses of siting decisions. Likewise, the preferences of the general public, as consumers, the utility companies, as builders and operators of power plant facilities, and environmentalists and the government must be accounted for in analyzing power plant siting and licensing issues. We advocate an approach for formally articulating the experts' judgments and the decision makers' preferences, both of which are clearly subjective, and processing these along with the more objective considerations in a logical manner to acquire the implications for decision making. The appropriateness and application of decision analysis for power plant location decisions is discussed and illustrated in this paper. Emphasis is placed on the assessment of the decision maker's preferences and tradeoffs concerning multiple objectives.

Controlling Interregional Migration Processes of a Markovian Type

Abstract: A framework is suggested within which normative modelling strategies can be used to make simple dynamic migration models more relevant to policymakers. A job-vacancy model is explicitly linked to a migration- and population-distribution model. Some suggestions are made about the ways in which the models could be modified in order to make them more realistic. Other areas of application are also briefly indicated.

Zero-Sum Games with “Almost” Perfect Information

Abstract: The present paper generalizes the concept of perfect information to games in which the players, while moving sequentially, remain uncertain about the actual payoff of the game because of an initial chance move. It is proved that the value of such games with “almost” perfect information can still be computed using backward induction in the game tree. The optimal behavioral strategies obtained by a dynamic procedure may, however, require randomization. A typical illustration of such games is poker.

Improved integer programming bounds using intersections of corner polyhedra

Abstract: Consider the relaxation of an integer programming (IP) problem in which the feasible region is replaced by the intersection of the linear programming (LP) feasible region and the corner polyhedron for a particular LP basis. Recently a primal-dual ascent algorithm has been given for solving this relaxation. Given an optimal solution of this relaxation, we state criteria for selecting a new LP basis for which the associated relaxation is stronger. These criteria may be successively applied to obtain either an optimal IP solution or a lower bound on the cost of such a solution. Conditions are given for equality of the convex hull of feasible IP solutions and the intersection of all corner polyhedra.

Zero-Sum Games with "Almost" Perfect Information

Abstract: The present paper generalizes the concept of perfect information to games in which the players, while moving sequentially, remain uncertain about the actual payoff of the game because of an initial chance move. It is proved that the value of such games with "almost" perfect information can still be computed using backward induction in the game tree. The optimal behavioral strategies obtained by a dynamic procedure may, however, require randomization. A typical illustration of such games is poker.

Urban Systems: A Policy Perspective

Abstract: In some countries, enthusiastic beginnings in the planning and management of national settlement systems (or urban growth, or regional development) have run against some intractable problems. This paper points to dilemmas for research under the rationalistic paradigm that has come to dominate orthodox thinking about the policy planning process, discusses the inconvenient nature of the urban system's time constants, reviews some problems of policy implementation, and suggests shifted research directions. In the face of general ignorance about policy outcomes and public values, the policy directions that now seem appropriate are less ambitious than those of a few years ago.

A New Equation for the Linear Regulator Problem

Abstract: In this article, a new equation is derived for the optimal feedback gain matrix characterizing the solution of the standard linear regulator problem. It will be seen that, in contrast to the usual algebraic Riccati equation which requires the solution ofn(n + 1)/2 quadratically nonlinear algebraic equations, the new equation requires the solution of onlynm such equations, wherem is the number of system input terminals andn is the dimension of the state vector of the system. Utilizing the new equation, results are presented for the inverse problem of linear control theory.

A Note on the L-P Formulation of Zero-Sum Sequential Games with Incomplete Information

Abstract: Zero-sum games with incomplete information are formulated as linear programs in which the players' behavioral strategies appear as primal and dual variables Known properties for these games may then be derived from duality theory

New equations for the time-dependent regulator problem

Abstract: This correspondence presents a derivation of an alternate set of equations for determination of the optimal feedback gain matrix for the time-dependent linear regulator problem. In contrast to the usual Riccati equation approach, the new system is composed of only nm equations, where m is the number of systems input terminals. As payment for this reduction in number of equations, however, the new system is not entirely general, being restricted to constant control matrices G , with arbitrary dynamics and cost matrices F and Q , respectively.

Review: Growth Centres in Spatial Planning, Housing and Social Policy, the Black Inner City as Frontier Outpost: Images and Behavior of a Philadelphia Neighborhood, Dynamic Allocation of Urban Space, Optimal Subset Selection: Multiple Regression, Interdependence and Optimal Network Algorithms:

Abstract: The development-pole concept and its offspring of development centres have received considerable attention of late. This stems largely from the popularity of so-called 'growth centre' strategies in regional planning and the belated attempts by theorists to produce theories of polarized growth commensurate with the policy aspects. Recent reviews of polarized theory building suggest that much remains to be done before the conceptual and applied branches of the notion can be successfully integrated. Malcolm Moseley's book makes a valiant attempt to cover the ground occupied by polarization concepts. To this end, theoretical chapters are proffered on urban size and the associated threshold, innovation diffusion, spatial externalities, spatial spin-offs, and migration. The usual caveat distinguishing sectoral from spatial polarization is stressed, as indeed is the need to concentrate on the dynamic nature of the growth process. Interspersed within the theoretical debate are examples of planning applications. A whole chapter is devoted to reviewing institutional attempts at regional upgrading by means of growth-centre strategies in Scotland, Ireland, and France. Moreover, the author gives his opinions on the planning implications of those theoretical components of polarization which have been largely ignored by regional planners to date. Of especial interest are Moseley's views on stimulating development-response surfaces around small service centres in rural areas. Obviously, in a work of this kind—incorporating a huge vista of theories, hypotheses, and 'hunches' relating to development—some objections can be raised. For instance, the author echoes the confusion, endemic in the field, concerning the precise role of place size in determining development spin-offs. After due reference to the range of minimal, viable, centre sizes—suggested by other analysts—Moseley offers his contribution of a population figure of 25000. The point missed is that growth impulses are a function of a centre's structural mix and the structural interdependency channels which are internal and external to the centre. Population is only a poor surrogate for that structural mix and its subsequent rounds of expansion. Furthermore, as Moseley implicitly displays, the viability of growth impulses vary according to the scale of the planning region. A smaller centre may produce perfectly adequate dynamic spin-offs to maintain itself and its complementary region when the planning region occupies the limited, multicounty slot. However, when the planning region is at the national scale, the requirement gravitates towards the interactions of impulses and development-response surfaces disseminated by a myriad of larger centres. Much of this confusion appears to stem from the inconsistencies involved in determining the role of innovation diffusion both within and around centres and the added assumption that size equates generation of innovation—incidentally a point which is recognized by Moseley. Too much emphasis on simplistic views of interurban hierarchical diffusion may detract from the effectiveness of models of spatial spin-offs (spread effects and income effects) which can make real contributions to development theory. On the whole, however, the author does a good job of highlighting the issues involved in this very complex and disparate subject area. His concluding chapter summarizes the relevance of prior growth-centre planning efforts and ponders the significance of the theoretical contribution. A series of questions about contentious issues are posed, and these need further clarification (unfortunately, almost the entire range of the subject matter!). The book should become a primer for all parties involved in enquiries into spatial development.

On the Dynamics of the Ignition of Paper and Catastrophe Theory

Abstract: The purpose of this note is to study the phenomenon of ignition of paper considered by Shivadev and Emmons from the viewpoint of stability theory and catastrophe theory. It is shown that ignition results from a sudden or catastrophic change of the kinetics governing temperature from a locally stable to a locally unstable equation. Using the model of Shivadev and Emmons and the above criterion, equations for the ignition temperature and the corresponding heat flux are derived. These equations are shown to provide a good match to the experimental data of Reference. Further extensions of this work to combustion and the appearance of cusp catastrophes are also discussed.

X and Y operators for general linear transport processes

Abstract: This note presents the derivation of generalized Ambartsumian-Chandrasekhar X and Y functions for stationary transfer in a plane-parallel slab. An algebraic formula relating these functions to the usual reflection function is also presented, together with the appropriate generalization of the Chandrasekhar H-equations for the semi-infinite medium. The planetary problem will also be briefly discussed.

On Optimization of Random Functionals

Abstract: Let f(α,x) be a functional of a variable xeX where is some “unobservable” random parameter with a probability distribution P Suppose we have to choose some point xoeX and we like to optimize this procedure in some sense of minimization of f(α,x), x X, with unknown parameter