Journal•ISSN: 0309-1708
Advances in Water Resources
Elsevier BV
About: Advances in Water Resources is an academic journal published by Elsevier BV. The journal publishes majorly in the area(s): Porous medium & Aquifer. It has an ISSN identifier of 0309-1708. Over the lifetime, 4434 publications have been published receiving 203227 citations.
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TL;DR: In this article, statistical downscaling of hydrologic extremes is considered, and future challenges such as the development of more rigorous statistical methodology for regional analysis of extremes, as well as the extension of Bayesian methods to more fully quantify uncertainty in extremal estimation are reviewed.
Abstract: The statistics of extremes have played an important role in engineering practice for water resources design and management. How recent developments in the statistical theory of extreme values can be applied to improve the rigor of hydrologic applications and to make such analyses more physically meaningful is the central theme of this paper. Such methodological developments primarily relate to maximum likelihood estimation in the presence of covariates, in combination with either the block maxima or peaks over threshold approaches. Topics that are treated include trends in hydrologic extremes, with the anticipated intensification of the hydrologic cycle as part of global climate change. In an attempt to link downscaling (i.e., relating large-scale atmosphere– ocean circulation to smaller-scale hydrologic variables) with the statistics of extremes, statistical downscaling of hydrologic extremes is considered. Future challenges are reviewed, such as the development of more rigorous statistical methodology for regional analysis of extremes, as well as the extension of Bayesian methods to more fully quantify uncertainty in extremal estimation. Examples include precipitation and streamflow extremes, as well as economic damage associated with such extreme events, with consideration of trends and dependence on patterns in atmosphere–ocean circulation (e.g., El Ni~ phenomenon). 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
1,458 citations
TL;DR: Pore-scale imaging and modelling is becoming a routine service in the oil and gas industry as discussed by the authors, and has potential applications in contaminant transport and carbon dioxide storage, which has been shown to transform our understanding of multiphase flow processes.
Abstract: Pore-scale imaging and modelling – digital core analysis – is becoming a routine service in the oil and gas industry, and has potential applications in contaminant transport and carbon dioxide storage. This paper briefly describes the underlying technology, namely imaging of the pore space of rocks from the nanometre scale upwards, coupled with a suite of different numerical techniques for simulating single and multiphase flow and transport through these images. Three example applications are then described, illustrating the range of scientific problems that can be tackled: dispersion in different rock samples that predicts the anomalous transport behaviour characteristic of highly heterogeneous carbonates; imaging of super-critical carbon dioxide in sandstone to demonstrate the possibility of capillary trapping in geological carbon storage; and the computation of relative permeability for mixed-wet carbonates and implications for oilfield waterflood recovery. The paper concludes by discussing limitations and challenges, including finding representative samples, imaging and simulating flow and transport in pore spaces over many orders of magnitude in size, the determination of wettability, and upscaling to the field scale. We conclude that pore-scale modelling is likely to become more widely applied in the oil industry including assessment of unconventional oil and gas resources. It has the potential to transform our understanding of multiphase flow processes, facilitating more efficient oil and gas recovery, effective contaminant removal and safe carbon dioxide storage.
1,421 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze measurements, conceptual pictures, and mathematical models of flow and transport phenomena in fractured rock systems, including water flow, conservative and reactive solutes, and two-phase flow.
Abstract: We analyze measurements, conceptual pictures, and mathematical models of flow and transport phenomena in fractured rock systems. Fractures and fracture networks are key conduits for migration of hydrothermal fluids, water and contaminants in groundwater systems, and oil and gas in petroleum reservoirs. Fractures are also the principal pathways, through otherwise impermeable or low permeability rocks, for radioactive and toxic industrial wastes which may escape from underground storage repositories. We consider issues relating to (i) geometrical characterization of fractures and fracture networks, (ii) water flow, (iii) transport of conservative and reactive solutes, and (iv) two-phase flow and transport. We examine the underlying physical factors that control flow and transport behaviors, and discuss the currently inadequate integration of conceptual pictures, models and data. We also emphasize the intrinsic uncertainty associated with measurements, which are often interpreted non-uniquely by models. Throughout the review, we point out key, unresolved problems, and formalize them as open questions for future research.
1,267 citations
TL;DR: It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioninghydrological prophecies.
Abstract: Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.
1,147 citations
TL;DR: A review of the state of the art in sea intrusion research can be found in this article, where the authors subdivide SI research into three categories: process, mea- surement, prediction and management.
Abstract: Seawater intrusion (SI) is a global issue, exacerbated by increasing demands for freshwater in coastal zones and predisposed to the influences of rising sea levels and changing climates. This review presents the state of knowledge in SI research, compares classes of methods for assessing and managing SI, and suggests areas for future research. We subdivide SI research into categories relating to processes, mea- surement, prediction and management. Considerable research effort spanning more than 50 years has provided an extensive array of field, laboratory and computer-based techniques for SI investigation. Despite this, knowledge gaps exist in SI process understanding, in particular associated with transient SI processes and timeframes, and the characterization and prediction of freshwater-saltwater interfaces over regional scales and in highly heterogeneous and dynamic settings. Multidisciplinary research is war- ranted to evaluate interactions between SI and submarine groundwater discharge, ecosystem health and unsaturated zone processes. Recent advances in numerical simulation, calibration and optimization tech- niques require rigorous field-scale application to contemporary issues of climate change, sea-level rise, and socioeconomic and ecological factors that are inseparable elements of SI management. The number of well-characterized examples of SI is small, and this has impeded understanding of field-scale pro- cesses, such as those controlling mixing zones, saltwater upconing, heterogeneity effects and other fac- tors. Current SI process understanding is based mainly on numerical simulation and laboratory sand-tank experimentation to unravel the combined effects of tides, surface water-groundwater interaction, heter- ogeneity, pumping and density contrasts. The research effort would benefit from intensive measurement campaigns to delineate accurately interfaces and their movement in response to real-world coastal aqui- fer stresses, encompassing a range of geological and hydrological settings.
1,055 citations