Showing papers in "Demography in 1975"
242 citations
TL;DR: Although persons wishing to live near large cities were found to be looking for the same qualities of living sought by those who prefer a more remote location, these findings are not, in general, consistent with the argument that public preferences support strategies of population dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas.
Abstract: Public opinion research has revealed decided preferences for living in rural areas and small towns, and proponents of population deconcentration have interpreted this as support for their policies. This study, based on a national sample, yielded similar results, but when we introduced the additional possibility of a preference for proximity to a larger city, then the rural areas preferred were found, for most respondents, to be those within the commuting range of a metropolitan central city. Although persons wishing to live near large cities were found to be looking for the same qualities of living sought by those who prefer a more remote location, these findings are not, in general, consistent with the argument that public preferences support strategies of population dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas. Instead they indicate that most of those who wish to live in a different location favor the peripheral metropolitan ring areas that have, in fact, been growing rapidly by in-migration.
154 citations
TL;DR: The present paper reviews the general, recursive solution of Schoen and Nelson (1974), develops explicit solutions for three cases of particular interest, and compares alternative approaches to the construction of increment-decrement tables.
Abstract: A life table model which can recognize increments (or entrants) as well as decrements has proven to be of considerable value in the analysis of marital status patterns, labor force participation patterns, and other areas of substantive interest. Nonetheless, relatively little work has been done on the methodology of increment-decrement (or combined) life tables. The present paper reviews the general, recursive solution of Schoen and Nelson (1974), develops explicit solutions for three cases of particular interest, and compares alternative approaches to the construction of increment-decrement tables.
116 citations
TL;DR: Using ordinary least-squares regression, it is found that areas of relatively attractive female employment opportunities had relatively low proportions of women ever married in the age interval 22–24.
Abstract: Several authors have argued that increased work opportunities for women have helped to produce a reduction in the average age at marriage in the United States. This paper tests this proposition on data for the 100 largest SMSA's in 1960. Using ordinary least-squares regression, we find that areas of relatively attractive female employment opportunities had relatively low proportions of women ever married in the age interval 22-24. Other variables significantly related to the proportion married in an SMSA are its sex ratio, percent Catholic, and number of inhabitants. A decline in the sex ratio and improvements in female employment opportunities appear to have been equally influential in producing declines in proportions married between 1960 and 1970.
110 citations
TL;DR: A new method for the estimation of the mean and variance of fecundability is described, using the distribution of the interval from marriage to first birth to test the method on data from five historical populations.
Abstract: A new method for the estimation of the mean and variance of fecundability is described. The data input required for this procedure is the distribution of the interval from marriage to first birth, or from the resumption of the conception risk after contraception to the subsequent birth. The estimates of the mean and variance of fecundability are obtained by fitting a model to the observed interval distribution. To test the method, it is applied to data from five historical populations. The fecundability means in these populations ranged from 0.18 to 0.31 while the coefficients of variation all had values near 0.56. A short method for the estimation of the mean of fecundability based on the same model, but not requiring a computer, is also presented.
108 citations
TL;DR: The probability of former migrants returning to the South was over four times greater for whites than for blacks in the 1955–1960 period and three and one-fourth times greater in the 1965-1970 period and since 1970 the rate of return migration has apparently continued to rise at a faster rate for blacks, but the black rate ofreturn migration is still below the white rate.
Abstract: The rate of return migration to the South rose by nearly 19 percent between the late 1950’s and the late 1960’s and was an important factor in changing the South’s overall migration pattern. But an increase in the rate of return migration was somewhat less important in changing Southern migration than (1) a decline in the rate of out-migration of native Southerners and (2) an increase in the rate at which non-Southern-born persons move to the South. The probability of former migrants returning to the South was over four times greater for whites than for blacks in the 1955–1960 period and three and one-fourth times greater in the 1965-1970 period. Since 1970 the rate of return migration has apparently continued to rise at a faster rate for blacks, but the black rate of return migration is still below the white rate.
73 citations
TL;DR: Two measures of preference are found to be highly intercorrelated; and regardless of which one is used, Taiwanese women are shown to predict their subsequent fertility at least as well as U.S. women.
Abstract: The predictive accuracy of respondents’ statements about their future fertility is examined, using interview data from a longitudinal study conducted in Taiwan. Two measures of preference are found to be highly intercorrelated; and regardless of which one is used, Taiwanese women are shown to predict their subsequent fertility at least as well as U.S. women. The preference measures are also predictive of rates of contraceptive use and abortion. While demographic and social characteristics are correlated with fertility in expected directions, statements about wanting more children prove to be highly predictive of subsequent fertility for both modern and less advanced segments of the population.
71 citations
TL;DR: It is shown that social security programs have a measureable negative effect on subsequent levels of fertility and appear to have as much of an independent impact on fertility as do the traditional correlates of fertility.
Abstract: A number of population scholars have asserted that social security programs such as old-age programs lead to decreased fertility levels because parents need not rely on children for "security" in old age. There is, however, a paucity of empirical data on the above. This paper analyzes 67 countries and shows that social security programs have a measurable negative effect on subsequent levels of fertility. In fact, the social security programs appear to have as much of an independent impact on fertility as do the traditional correlates of fertility (infant mortality, education and per capita income).
71 citations
TL;DR: The number of children born to the second generation is shown to be inversely related to the predicted income of the first generation (father's father) and to the number of siblings in the secondgeneration and even when second-generation characteristics are taken account of.
Abstract: The number of children born to the second generation is shown to be inversely related to the predicted income of the first generation (father's father) and to the number of siblings in the second generation This is true even when second-generation characteristics are taken account of This long-term effect may be the result of parental influences on the tastes, opportunities or genes of their children They do get an empirical expression because of the imperfect and partial measurement of second-generation characteristics
55 citations
TL;DR: This study constitutes an empirical examination of qualitative differences in the parameter estimates of five different types of migration models estimated for two different time periods, 1960 and 1970.
Abstract: A number of migration studies have attempted to explain migration that occurred over a given time interval by means of variables defined for the end of the period and/or variables relating to changes that occurred over the period. Since migration may influence end-of-period levels of explanatory variables by influencing the behavior of these variables over the period of migration, simultaneous-equations bias may be inherent in the parameter estimates of the many single-equation, multiple-regression analyses. This study constitutes an empirical examination of qualitative differences in the parameter estimates of five different types of migration models estimated for two different time periods, 1960 and 1970.
54 citations
TL;DR: The major findings that have emerged from this research-in particular the 1970 National Fertility Study -despite all the methodological inadequacies are summarized.
Abstract: Two years ago, on this sa.me occasion, my colleague Norman Ryder delivered an address entitled "A Critique of the *National Fertility Study," in which he enumerated a lengthy array of shortcomings of the fertility surveys that have occupied such an increasingly important role in demographic research (Ryder, 1973a). Ryder elaborated many of the major compromises with methodological ideals and some of the analytical mistakes that have characterized these studies, all of which add up to an impressive list of problems if not a major indictment of the species itself. Today I would like to take a different tack and try to summarize the major findings that have emerged from this research-in particular the 1970 National Fertility Study -despite all the methodological inadequacies. To exaggerate the point: What have we learned in spite of the fact that our tools and procedures seem to preclude learning very much of anything? And by "learn" I mean to include findings of both a theoretical and policy significance; research findings should not be denigrated just because they happen to be useful.
TL;DR: Changes in the national-origins quota system, the preference system, labor certification and adjustment-of-status provisions led to changes in the size and composition of immigration.
Abstract: Changes in the national-origins quota system, the preference system, labor certification and adjustment-of-status provisions led to changes in the size and composition of immigration. Within a context of increasing size and changing area of origin, the proportion of immigrants with a stated occupation increased, and the occupational composition of total immigration and of immigration by continent of origin changed. Europe and the Americas generally switched to lower-skilled levels, and Asia, Africa and Oceania, to white-collar, especially professional, levels. The composition of occupational groups also changed, with Asia generally increasing its contribution and most noticeably so in the professional group. Adjustment of status has generally increased, but it has not become mainly a subterfuge for foreign students and exchange visitors to remain in the country. Relatives and refugees dominate the adjustee group.
TL;DR: Comparisons of differential participation rates of women by presence of children, between occupations grouped according to measures of convenience, indicate that differentials are least pronounced in those occupational groupings which have the highest percentage of convenience factors.
Abstract: This paper investigates whether convenient working conditions reduce the constraint of children on married women working. It is assumed that convenient working conditions are most important for women with heavy child-care responsibilities. Therefore, differentials in participation rates, by presence and age of children, are expected to be less pronounced in those occupations where a high proportion of jobs have convenient working conditions. Data are selected from the 1960 1/1000 Public Use Sample of the United States population. Those studied comprise white married women living with their husbands. The paper involves a comparison of differential participation rates of women by presence of children, between occupations grouped according to measures of convenience, using a multivariate analysis. The results indicate that differentials are least pronounced in those occupational groupings which have the highest percentage of convenience factors.
TL;DR: Son preference is highest in rural Mindanao and Sulu, primarily due to the concentration of Muslims in this section of the country and secondarily to its pioneer environment and the presumed utility of sons in such a milieu.
Abstract: An analysis of family sex composition preferences as well as the relationship between actual family sex composition and desire for no additional children among a national sample of Filipino women is presented. An emphasis on balance or son-daughter equivalence is strongest in Metropolitan Manila. Son preference is highest in rural Mindanao and Sulu, primarily due to the concentration of Muslims in this section of the country and secondarily to its pioneer environment and the presumed utility of sons in such a milieu. The importance of eliciting sex composition preferences from both husbands and wives as well as distinguishing the “striking for a balance” from sex-linked preferences in future research is discussed.
TL;DR: Analysis of California’s Family Law Act of 1969 revealed that it did not lead to any real increase in marital dissolution among Californians or produce any significant changes in the characteristics of the population filing for divorce.
Abstract: California’s Family Law Act of 1969, effective January 1, 1970, instituted non-adversary proceedings for divorce, suggested a more equal division of community property and reduced the minimum waiting time for a final divorce decree. A rapid increase in the number of divorces granted in California followed. Analysis revealed that the 1969 Law did not lead to any real increase in marital dissolution among Californians or produce any significant changes in the characteristics of the population filing for divorce. What was seen were certain modifications in behavior on the part of divorcing persons to take advantage of the Law’s new provisions.
TL;DR: Comparisons between the returns from an ethnic survey and a survey on the religious composition demonstrate the close congruence between persons of Russian stock or descent and American Jews on the national level.
Abstract: While the U. S. Bureau of the Census has had a long-standing policy of abstaining from enumerating the religious beliefs or backgrounds of the American people, at least two–thirds of the Jewish population of the United States has been enumerated in decennial censuses and sample surveys in the guise of persons of Russian stock or origin. This has come about through the migration policy of the old Russian Empire and the statistical categories utilized by American immigration authorities and by the U. S. Bureau of the Census for immigrants and their children. Comparisons between the returns from an ethnic survey and a survey on the religious composition demonstrate the close congruence between persons of Russian stock or descent and American Jews on the national level.
TL;DR: An initially stable population of women is assumed to shift its reproductive behavior to a different level either abruptly or in a prescribed gradual fashion, and accurate approximations to these asymptotic results are derived to illustrate why a growing population continues to grow even after shifting to bare replacement reproductive behavior.
Abstract: An initially stable population of women is assumed to shift its reproductive behavior to a different level either abruptly or in a prescribed gradual fashion. A closed-form solution which is exact up to about 30 years after the reproductive adjustment is found for the resulting birth trajectory. Exact expressions are also found for the long-time asymptotic behavior of both the birth trajectory and the total population size when the shift in reproductive behavior is to bare replacement level. Accurate approximations to these asymptotic results are then derived and used to illustrate why a growing population continues to grow even after shifting to bare replacement reproductive behavior.
TL;DR: The neonatal and infant mortality rates of firstborn are probably higher than those of later sibs, but mortality by age 20 (in Geneva) is associated strongly with the epoch, type of family, and family size, and not significantly with birth order.
Abstract: Based on parish registers, demographic histories of Crulai (France), Tourouvre-au-Perche (France), and Geneva (Switzerland) established the childhood mortality experienced by complete sibships during periods of at least half a century before the French revolution These observations may be presented as frequencies in incomplete five-dimensional contingency tables The five dimensions are: survival (living or dead), completed sibship size, birth order, type of family (according to completeness of information about family), and epoch (period in which the family lived) This paper reanalyzes these published data, using hierarchical log-linear models to discern which interactions among the five variables can justifiably be inferred from the data The neonatal and infant mortality rates of firstborn are probably higher than those of later sibs (in Crulai and Tourouvre) But mortality by age 20 (in Geneva) is associated strongly with the epoch, type of family, and family size, and not significantly with birth order The increase in mortality with completed family size is insufficient to select, in an evolutionary sense, for limited family size
TL;DR: The results strongly confirm Stouffer’s hypothesis and yield parameter estimates highly comparable to those obtained for metropolitan migration, except that competing migrants exert a stronger influence than intervening opportunities in interstate migration.
Abstract: The objectives of this paper are (1) to evaluate the accuracy of the intervening opportunities-competing migrants hypothesis (Stouffer, 1960) in estimating 1955-1960 interstate migration streams in the United States and (2) to compare the results with those obtained by Galle and Taeuber (1966) for metropolitan migration. Our results strongly confirm Stouffer’s hypothesis and yield parameter estimates highly comparable to those obtained for metropolitan migration, except that competing migrants exert a stronger influence than intervening opportunities in interstate migration.
TL;DR: TABRAP (TArget Birth Rate Acceptor Program) is a computer programmed model that provides a direct solution to the problem of determining the total annual numbers of contraceptive acceptors required to achieve a prescribed crude birth rate target path.
Abstract: TABRAP (TArget Birth Rate Acceptor Program) is a computer programmed model that provides a direct solution to the problem of determining the total annual numbers of contraceptive acceptors required to achieve a prescribed crude birth rate target path. Applied to an initial population for which age structure, the fertility schedule, and expected trends in life expectancy and age-specific proportions of females married are known, TABRAP incorporates the following factors: age at acceptance, with acceptors drawn from currently married nonusers; age-method-specific attrition rates of users; a potential fertility schedule of acceptors that allows for aging and sterility; and allowances both for postpartum anovulation and nine months for gestation to time properly the averted births. TABRAP generates annual data on acceptors, couple-years of use, births averted and age-specific fertility rates that meet the crude birth rate target. Resulting changes in population size, age structure and crude vital rates, also yielded, are invariant with respect to acceptor age and method mix. Assuming a target to reduce the crude birth rate from 45 to 30 in ten years, TABRAP is illustrated for seven mixes of acceptor age-method combinations applied to a population approximating that of Thailand, circa 1965.
TL;DR: Migrants have consistently higher activity rates than the remainder of the population and appear capable of competing for jobs on an equal basis with residents at their respective destinations, however, female migrants are consistently overrepresented in lower-status activities, particularly in domestic services.
Abstract: More than one-third of the Colombian population can be classified as migrants. The prevailing direction of movements is urbanwards, yet it is significant that better than a third of all movements are to rural destinations. Nationwide comparisons of migrants and residents on demographic characteristics would indicate that all streams are selective of the younger and unmarried population, with women predominating in urbanwards movements and men in those to rural areas. However, when compared in terms of socioeconomic characteristics, migrants are more sharply differentiated among themselves than they are from the resident population at each of their respective destinations. Within the migrant population, a natural funneling of the more able migrants to the largest centers suggests itself. Migrants have consistently higher activity rates than the remainder of the population and, in the case of men at least, appear capable of competing for jobs on an equal basis with residents at their respective destinations. Female migrants, however, are consistently overrepresented in lower-status activities, particularly in domestic services.
TL;DR: A simple rule for approximating the reduction in apparent incidence of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion is presented and the effects of nonreporting and misreporting of pregnancy outcomes upon this rule are examined.
Abstract: Because of their similar timing in pregnancy, spontaneous and induced abortions can be viewed as competing outcomes. Some intended abortion operations are anticipated by earlier miscarriages while some potential miscarriages are forestalled by earlier deliberate interruptions of pregnancy. Previous treatments of this competition are reviewed, and a new analysis is made on the basis of New York data. A simple rule for approximating the reduction in apparent incidence of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion is presented. The effects of nonreporting and misreporting of pregnancy outcomes upon this rule are examined by means of the Perrin-Sheps renewal process. Two expectations are tested on Taiwanese data.
TL;DR: It is suggested that this largely unaltered pattern of fertility is a function of the peculiar form of economic development to which Kuwait has been subjected and of the strongly pro-natalist pressures associated with Arabic Islam.
Abstract: Kuwait has experienced a dramatic rise in national income since 1945, and its material standard of living is as high as that of any country in the world. The national population (Kuwaitis) is a stable and almost closed population comprising 45 percent of the total population of the state. The Kuwaitis, readily separable from the immigrant population, both de facto and de jure, have a very low level of mortality but retain their traditionally high level of fertility. It is suggested that this largely unaltered pattern of fertility is a function of the peculiar form of economic development to which Kuwait has been subjected and of the strongly pro-natalist pressures associated with Arabic Islam.
TL;DR: A method is proposed for standardizing life table cumulative failure rates for various cohorts so that they are adjusted to the distribution of exposure by age group for a particular cohort.
Abstract: A method is proposed for standardizing life table cumulative failure rates for various cohorts so that they are adjusted to the distribution of exposure by age group for a particular cohort. An approximate standard error for the standardized cumulative failure rate is presented. Application of the methodology is illustrated by a numerical example.
TL;DR: A positive association between variations among the Southern states in postneonatal mortality differentials and income differentials was found, while neonatal mortalityDifferentials had a weak inverse relationship with income inequality.
Abstract: This paper examines the trends and variations in the black-white differentials in infant mortality in ten selected Southern states during the 1940–1970 period. The patterns observed from the Southern states are compared with those observed from seven selected Northern states and the country as a whole. The ratios of black to white infant mortality rates and Fein’s “time-lag” statistics are used as measures of the extent of black-white differentials.
TL;DR: It is concluded that in both cases emigration is a very significant contributor to the fertility declines which have occurred and are still underway.
Abstract: This paper examines the role of emigration in the recent fertility declines which have occurred on the island of Barbados. Barbados with a history of over two centuries of out-migration has experienced in the period 1951-1970 very significant migration loss. In the period 1960-1970 and up to the present fertility has been declining. An important question is what part has this net migration loss of 32,600 had on the reduction of the crude birth rate from 33.6 in 1960 or from 31.5 in 1956 to 20.5 in 1970? Using officially published net migration loss figures and supplementing them with data on Barbadians living overseas, we calculated the crude birth rates which would have occurred had there been no migration loss. We also calculated the numbers of births to be expected if certain age-specific fertility rates were maintained and compared these with the births to residents plus the calculated births to Barbadians overseas. We conclude that in both cases emigration is a very significant contributor to the fertility declines which have occurred and are still underway.
TL;DR: The paper provides a general method for estimating age-reporting errors from two consecutive census populations along the lines suggested by Demeny and Shorter (1968) and always gives consistent results irrespective of the populations under consideration.
Abstract: The paper provides a general method for estimating age-reporting errors from two consecutive census populations along the lines suggested by Demeny and Shorter (1968). When the true age structures in the two censusses are the same, the general method and the Demeny-Shorter method give identical results. However, the latter method faces increasingly the problem of inconsistency of the results with the underlying assumptions as the disparity between the age structures becomes more and more significant. The present method is more general in the sense that it always gives consistent results irrespective of the populations under consideration.
TL;DR: It is concluded that the uneven time distribution of immigration and the higher fertility of migrants are jointly responsible for the development of Israel’s peculiar age dynamics, and that the absence of either of these two factors alone would eliminate it.
Abstract: Israel, in her 25 years of existence, received an unprecedented volume of immigration, which was the major source of her high population growth. This immigration was heavily concentrated in the first five years, 1948–1952; mass immigration of 711,000 supplemented an initial population of 630,000. Subsequently, since 1952, a very peculiar age-sex structure has developed: namely, instead of a pyramid, a wide rectangle for the younger age groups “topped” with a narrow pyramid for the older age groups. The peculiar age-sex dynamics is analyzed in relation to the volume of immigration with its uneven time distribution, the age selectivity of migrants and fertility-mortality patterns of migrants. It is concluded that the uneven time distribution of immigration and the higher fertility of migrants are jointly responsible for the development of Israel’s peculiar age dynamics, and that the absence of either of these two factors alone would eliminate it. The peculiar dynamics has societal implications in the short and the long run, some of which are discussed.
TL;DR: The purpose of this paper is to discuss a method of estimating desired family size based on the concept of paired comparison, where the response is restricted in order to reduce respondent bias.
Abstract: The concept of desired family size is widely accepted, and numerous studies have been undertaken to measure its level in certain population groups. The determination of desired family size has generally followed the direct question procedure through which the respondent states some whole number as representing her family size wishes at some specified period in her life. Limitations of this method have been recognized, and some research has been conducted toward the development of other techniques of measuring desired family size. The purpose of this paper is to discuss a method of estimating desired family size based on the concept of paired comparison, where the response is restricted in order to reduce respondent bias. Emphasis is on estimation of parameters and test statistics appropriate for evaluating the applicability of the underlying model.
TL;DR: The small family system shows that age and children ever born are the most important predictors of living alone among the widowed in both countries and among the 13 ethnic-religious and ethnicracial groups there is a general similarity of the importance of the variables in the total prediction scheme.
Abstract: One of the neglected areas in the study of the social structure of the family is that of widowhood, the last stage in the family life cycle. A study of living arrangements of the widowed provides an opportunity to examine the kinship solidarity of a society and to point up in bold relief the influence of a variety of factors that contribute to the residential patterns of the widowed. The data in this study were drawn from the 1960 Census of the United States and the 1961 Census of Israel, the latest which offer comparable data. Five ethnic-religious groups are examined in Israel and eight in the United States. Goode and others have stated that family modernization is a universal trend, and this is borne out by the results of this study. The small family system shows that age and children ever born are the most important predictors of living alone among the widowed in both countries. Otherwise, among the 13 ethnic-religious and ethnicracial groups there is a general similarity of the importance of the variables in the total prediction scheme.