Showing papers in "Economic Modelling in 2003"

TL;DR: In this article, international trends and differences in subjective well-being over the final five decades of the twentieth century are discussed. But the main innovation of this paper lies in its use of large international samples of individual respondents, thus permitting the simultaneous identification of individual-level and societal-level determinants of wellbeing.

TL;DR: This paper examined the relationship between inflation uncertainty and the impact of inflation targeting using British data over the period 1972-2002 and found that the adoption of an explicit target eliminates inflation persistence and reduces long-run uncertainty.

TL;DR: In this paper, a money supply process based on the interest rate on bonds and its spread with respect to the lending rate is proposed to insulate the economies from the asymmetric effects produced by differences in national banking systems.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe some recent advances and contributions to our understanding of economic forecasting, and discuss the areas where research remains needed to clarify empirical findings which lack theoretical explanations.

TL;DR: In this paper, the contribution of public capital to economic growth in Belgium is analyzed in a cointegrated VAR model, where public investment is found to have a positive impact on economic growth.

TL;DR: The authors proposed testable conditions for core inflation measures and used these conditions to evaluate three widely used core inflation indicators for the United States: the ‘excluding food and energy’ indicator; the trimmed mean; and the weighted median.

TL;DR: In this article, economic efficiency, TFP change, and technical change of the Greek banking system over the period 1993-1998 are estimated. And the results show that the majority of the banks operate close to best market practices, while allocative inefficiency costs seem to be more important than technical inefficiency.

TL;DR: In this paper, the welfare effects of imposing a neutral system of housing taxation are analyzed by using an intertemporal CGE model for the Norwegian economy, and different rebating alternatives are considered.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors show that the estimate of the coefficient of relative risk aversion tends to have a negative bias and suggest that the other estimates in the equation are not (as seriously) biased.

TL;DR: In this paper, the South African business cycle is modelled using a Markov switching regime (MS) model, which is used to simultaneously estimate the data generating process of real GDP growth and classify each observation into one of two regimes (low-growth and high-growth regimes).

TL;DR: In this article, a Lienard-Chipart-type theorem for detecting Hopf bifurcations is proved, which appears of considerable usefulness in applications, and the notions of "stability boundary" and "bifurcation boundary" are introduced.

TL;DR: In this article, a general framework for aggregating linear dynamic models by deriving the aggregate model as the optimal prediction (in the minimum mean-squared error sense) of the aggregate variable of interest with respect to an aggregate information set generated by current and past values of available aggregate observations is provided.

TL;DR: In this article, the consequences of ageing for the Netherlands in a baseline scenario simulated with a dynamic general equilibrium model are explored, and the sensitivity of the results under alternative projections for population ageing is discussed.

TL;DR: In this paper, a modified version of the rational expectations permanent income/life cycle hypotheses (REPIH/RELCH) representative agent model is proposed to allow for current income consumers, the durable component of total consumer expenditures and for intertemporal substitution, which are often cited as the main reasons for the rejection of Hall's model.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess the statistical reliability of different measures of the output gap for the Euro-11 area and the US using output, inflation and unemployment systems and find that under their multivariate specification, unobservable components (UC) type models of output gap show temporal consistency between sequential and final estimates and are consistent with known cyclical indicators.

TL;DR: In this paper, thanks are due to Australia’s Grape and Wine Research and Development Corporation (GWRDC), the Australian Research Council (ARC), and the Rural Industries Research and development Corporation (RIRDC) for financial support.

TL;DR: The overlapping generations model based on the endogenous growth theory, incorporating human capital stock has been developed and some simulations under the alternative population growth patterns and some sensitivity analyses, with respect to some key parameters have been conducted as discussed by the authors.

TL;DR: In this paper, a dual-rate discounting approach is proposed for economic-environmental modeling with long time horizons, where private investments are guided by a conventional discount rate and the environmental investments by a much lower "environmental" discount rate.

TL;DR: In this paper, the role of the output-capital ratio in growth models is discussed and the stability of the ratio for some industrial countries is assessed for the balanced growth path in the models of Solow (1956) and Romer (1986).

TL;DR: In this paper, investment is estimated to be consistent with a neoclassical supply-side model of the South African economy, where profit-maximising or cost-minimising decision-making processes by firms, where supply side factors such as taxes, interest rates and funding in the broader sense play a significant role.

TL;DR: This paper used cointegration analysis to investigate the long-run effects of advertising and other variables on the aggregate consumption of several product categories, though the main focus is upon the demand for beer, spirits and wine.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which unemployment movements are attributed largely to changes in the long-run equilibrium unemployment rate and (b) the chain-reaction perspective, which is viewed as the outcome of the interplay between labor market shocks and prolonged lagged adjustment processes.

TL;DR: In this paper, a comparative analysis of four macroeconometric models whose proprietors participated in a model comparison conference focused on the new euro area economy is presented, and the results of two policy simulations are compared and contrasted.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used SVAR models of monetary and fiscal policy in France, Germany and the euro area for the period 1979:1-2000:2 and found that, during these two decades, monetary shocks exhibit significant correlation while fiscal shocks are uncorrelated between France and Germany.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors assess the effects of the last decade's multinational liberalisation of foreign trade, in terms of economic gains and emissions to air and deposits of solid waste.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined aggregate dynamics on the supply side of the housing market under asymmetric adjustment costs and found that the adjustment costs of expanding housing output are greater than those associated with a contraction.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide practical solutions to the three problems of imperfect competition in general equilibrium: how to calculate the oligopoly markup in models where producers sell some faction of their output to multiple purchasers, how do we calculate the general equilibrium elasticities of demand, and is the choice of numeraire important for the results.

TL;DR: In this paper, a version of Barro's tax smoothing model was used for the period of 1956-1995, and the empirical results indicate that Pakistan's fiscal behavior is consistent with tax smoothed, as taxes remained relatively constant in response to anticipated changes in expenditure, most likely due to the government's inability to raise revenue.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated empirically the relationship between target zone credibility and economic fundamentals using French monthly data for the period 1991:6 to 1998:9 and found that expected devaluation is significantly influenced by foreign reserves and the deviations of the exchange rate from the EMS central parity, whereas the effects of real variables are weak at best.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors employ Greek data over the period 1960-1997 to examine whether or not the underground economy responds asymmetrically to tax changes, both indirect and direct, both in the sense that tax increases and tax reductions.