Showing papers in "Energy Economics in 1983"

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors developed a long-term global energy-economic model which is capable of assessing alternative energy evolutions over periods of up to 100 years, and they have sought to construct the model so that it can perform its assigned task with as simple a modelling system as possible.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the change in the ratio of energy consumed to industrial production over the years 1968-1980 and analysed changes in the composition of industry, creating a better picture of movements in physical efficiency of energy use.

TL;DR: In this article, an analysis of recent trends in industrial output and electricity consumption carried out at the Electricity Council is described, which examines the significance of changes in industrial structure and in the intensity of electricity use within major industries using a simple arithmetical procedure.

TL;DR: In this article, the short-term impact of prices on primary energy demand is estimated to be about 0.15 while the longterm impact is 0.43, but increasing over time, and it can be argued that there is little use in distinguishing between short and long-term income elasticities.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors used a three-equation model (demand, price, appliance stock index) and a current national household data set to develop partial and total elasticity estimates for the USA.

TL;DR: In this article, an economic cost-benefit method for determining the optimal power system capacity and reliability of electricity supply using customer shortage costs is presented. But unlike the existing literature on this subject, which considers only customer outage costs, this paper argues that it is the related but considerably broader notion of customer shortage cost that is more relevant in the context of optimizing the reliability of the electricity supply.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide both a historical analysis of fuel demand for road transport and an example of using econometric results for projections, by splitting total demand into passenger car, truck and other demands.

TL;DR: In this article, a simultaneous-equations model was developed and its reduced form was employed for natural gas consumption demand elasticity estimation in conjuction with the instrumental price variables, and data from 1967 to 1978 were used in the estimation, but the 1973 oil embargo effect was separated with the use of a dummy variable.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors apply the theory of exhaustible resources to estimate the equilibrium oil prices (also known as "efficiency prices") which would have prevailed in the absence of monopoly profits.

TL;DR: In this paper, a utility maximization (cost minimization) model is used to derive consistent demand curves, which are shown potentially to be subject to discontinuities, and the authors show how such charges complicate interpretations of past estimates of the industrial demand for electricity.

TL;DR: This paper presented an aggregative model of US consumption of petroleum and products, of a type which might potentially be used to derive short-term forecasts of US petroleum consumption and imports, with emphasis on the dynamic path of consumption responses to price changes.

TL;DR: A static linear programming model of a district heating system in which the base load is covered by a cogenerating station producing heat and electricity and provides optimal investment decisions as well as optimal operating rules.

TL;DR: In this article, the hypothesis that energy had much more to do with the generation of the long Kondratiev cycles than generally recognized was presented, and it was suggested that the next upturn may also be energy-related.

TL;DR: In this article, a model was developed to investigate the effect of energy investment on economic growth under a set of simplifying assumptions, where the economy is treated as a two-sector aggregate; the energy sector and the rest of the economy, whereas the model describing the energy-economy interaction is linear to the differential changes of the variables, adaptable to structural evolution and requires a modest amount of data for initialization.

TL;DR: In this paper, the value of international cooperation during an oil supply disruption is investigated, and the authors employ a small short-run econometric model of the oil market to examine inventory behavior and to test coordinated government stockpile drawdowns (termed flexible stock policies) which have been proposed to address these issues.

TL;DR: In this article, Simulataneous equation models are constructed to explain the interdependent relationships among the supply and demand as well as the stock of helium storage under the conservation programme and the natural gas reserve policies.

TL;DR: In this article, the effect of commercial and end-of-programme break times on the demand for electricity is discussed, and a theory of audience release is developed and various policy implications are explored.

TL;DR: In this article, the variability in demand for natural gas by manufacturing industries in New York State was investigated using a dynamic model, using the three-stage least squares method, which allows for the calculation of both long-and short-run elasticities.

TL;DR: In this article, the temporal stability of electricity demand functions with distributed lags is examined over the 1961-1980 period and the distributed lag models considered include the partial adjustment model, the unconstrained lag model, and the Almon polynomial lag procedure.

TL;DR: In this paper, the Hotelling model was applied to explain the stability of oil prices in the 1960s and in the second half of the 1970s, and the effect of a continuous increase in oil prices on an economy was traced out.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors used the energy signature technique to analyse the marginal benefits of various types of energy conservation in residential space heating and certain systematic errors frequently committed by utility companies in estimating these benefits.

TL;DR: A low inflation rate is most easily achieved if the price of domestically produced energy follows the national price index as discussed by the authors, and in most countries some alternative energy sources may be competitive to imported energy when all the economic benefits of domestic energy production are taken into consideration.

TL;DR: In this paper, the effect of energy costs on the housing market response was investigated using both a linear and non-linear model, and the choice of the appropriate model was determined using the Box-Cox transformation technique.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors derived a production function from principals of steady-state heat transfer and explored its properties for indoor home heating, and showed that it can be used to study the economics of home heating.

TL;DR: In this article, a methodology for incorporating price-induced technological substitution into a regional input-output forecasting model was presented to determine the employment impacts of rapidly escalating energy costs on the Riverside-San Bernardino (California) SMSA.

TL;DR: In this paper, it was shown that had the industrial energy conservation measures considered in the IIED's "low energy future" for the UK been in place in 1974, the primary input cost of meeting final demand requirements would have been £1202 millions less than it actually was in 1974.

TL;DR: In this paper, the short-term behavior of oil consumption in the OECD countries as a whole is modelled to depend on a structural component, specified as a quadratic time trend, and a cyclical component related to the cyclical fluctuations of aggregate real output and to shortterm fluctuations of the real price of oil.