Showing papers in "Interfaces in 1980"
TL;DR: In this article, the author led the development and application of a program overruns, contract disputes, and legal confrontation between defense contractors and the government escalated seriously over the 1970's.
Abstract: Program overruns, contract disputes, and legal confrontation between defense contractors and the government escalated seriously over the 1970's. The author led the development and application of a ...
258 citations
TL;DR: A positive correlation was found between the prestige of 10 management journals and their "fog indices" (reading difficulty) as discussed by the authors, indicating that those passages that were more difficult to read were rated higher in research competence.
Abstract: Modest support was found for the “Dr. Fox phenomenon”: Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible writing. A positive correlation (+0.7) was found between the prestige of 10 management journals and their “fog indices” (reading difficulty). Furthermore, 32 faculty members were asked to rate the prestige of four passages from management journals. The content of the passages was held constant while readability was varied. Those passages that were more difficult to read were rated higher in research competence.
202 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors proposed several optimization methods to lower the total number of passenger miles the NBA traveled, and they have succeeded in developing efficient schedules, by a combination of these techniques, for the 1978-1979 and 1979-1980 seasons.
Abstract: The costs of the current National Basketball Association (NBA) schedule have had deleterious effects on the financial position of the league. The 22 teams travel an unnecessary number of airline miles, resulting in increased fatigue for the players and dollar losses to the owners. We have considered several optimization methods to lower the total number of passenger miles the league travels. We have succeeded in developing efficient schedules, by a combination of these techniques, for the 1978–1979 and 1979–1980 seasons. These schedules satisfy the league's constraints and would have led to savings of $757,000 or 20.4% over the NBA's current schedule. The NBA is considering our proposal to schedule the 1980–1981 and 1981–1982 seasons.
64 citations
TL;DR: Rosenblatt and Jucker as discussed by the authors argued that the use of discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques has been increasing as indicated by the results of 10 surveys during the period 1955 to 1975.
Abstract: Rosenblatt and Jucker [Rosenblatt, M. J., J. V. Jucker. 1979. Capital expenditure decision making: Some tools and trends. Interfaces 9 (2, February).] and Rappaport [Rappaport, Allen. 1979. A critique of capital budgeting questionnaires. Interfaces 9 (3, May).] in papers published recently in this journal have been engaged in a debate about the extent of the usage of sophisticated capital budgeting techniques in general and more specifically about the extent of the usage of discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques. Rosenblatt and Jucker contend that the use of DCF techniques has been increasing as indicated by the results of 10 surveys during the period 1955 to 1975. Rappaport contends, however, that since the surveys cited are not comparable we cannot say with any certainty that the use of DCF techniques is increasing. I have followed this debate with much interest. As an academic I have been teaching the topic to future business graduates with a firm conviction that the use of DCF rates by most business or...
60 citations
TL;DR: An encoder scheduling system and the problems of implementation at a large bank are described and annual savings and other qualitative benefits are presented.
Abstract: The timely processing of checks in large banks is critical to reducing float costs which, in many cases, total thousands of dollars per day. One of the steps in check processing is encoding where the dollar amount is imprinted in magnetic ink at the bottom of each check. Unencoded check arrival volumes exhibit substantial hourly and daily variability. This paper describes an encoder scheduling system and the problems of implementation at a large bank. Documented annual savings and other qualitative benefits are also presented.
49 citations
TL;DR: In this article, the problems, difficulties, pitfalls, and drawbacks in inventory management, from teaching and research in academia to applying, installing, and successfully using inventory systems in practice are addressed.
Abstract: This article addresses the problems, difficulties, pitfalls, and drawbacks in inventory management, from teaching and research in academia to applying, installing, and successfully using inventory systems in practice. Some guidelines and suggestions are offered to students, teachers, analysts, users and managers of inventory systems. Several of these guidelines are not uniquely associated with inventory management but apply equally well to the entire OR/MS area. This article is to some extent based on the discussions of a symposium with the same title that the authors organized and participated in during the 11th National Meeting of the American Institute for Decision Sciences, New Orleans, November 1979.
37 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors reflect upon just how much our understanding of complexity is still limited by our own preconceptions about the nature of complexity, and what it means to deal rationally with complexity in defining real world problems.
Abstract: Management of complexity is the hallmark of good Management Science, if Management Science is understood in the wider sense intended by its founding fathers. In Herbert A. Simon, Management Science has recently acquired Nobel-prize status for its contribution to the understanding of complexity in decision-making and problem-solving processes. On this occasion we should reflect upon just how much our understanding of complexity is still limited by our own preconceptions about the nature of complexity. In what ways is the model of complexity we now use, and to which Herbert Simon has given its most elegant formulation in his paper, “The Architecture of Complexity” [Herbert A. Simon. 1962. The architecture of complexity. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 106 (6) 467–482.], likely to appear naive to the next generation of Management Scientists and planners? What does it mean to deal rationally with complexity in defining real-world problems? A fictitious debate between Herbert Simon and anothe...
32 citations
TL;DR: In this article, a comprehensive distribution planning model with optimization capability is proposed to deal not only with warehouse location questions, but also with a variety of additional management questions, such as how many warehouses should we have.
Abstract: The question How many warehouses should we have: is deceptively simple because a proper answer requires answering, at the same time, a host of interdependent questions. We think that this calls for a comprehensive distribution planning model with optimization capability. Such a managerial tool can be used to deal not only with warehouse location questions, but also with a variety of additional management questions. With this approach, the seed provided by the facility location issue can hear fruit of added utility far beyond original expectations. The authors' experience is that this full potential is seldom achieved in practice without deliberate efforts to remove the block caused by the usual narrow focus on “just” locating facilities.
31 citations
TL;DR: An application was made at the University departmental level in which a Markov analysis was employed to study the progression of doctoral students to completion to determine if the number of current admissions was creating an undesirable future dissertation overload for supervising professors.
Abstract: Most of the applications of Management Science reported in the literature have been macroanalytic studies requiring massive expenditures of time and money, rather than useful applications for small systems involving little effort and cost. One such application was made at the University departmental level in which a Markov analysis was employed to study the progression of doctoral students to completion (with periods of nonenrollment accounted for) to determine if the number of current admissions was creating an undesirable future dissertation overload for supervising professors. The department unanimously approved the recommendation based on the study. Problems of implementation were avoided by having a department member (1) participating in the model development and data gathering and (2) presenting the results of the analysis to department members.
28 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors describe how a major tire manufacturer has attained an increase in productivity through the application of management science, and the evolution of an integrated "total system" approach is traced, with emphasis on the ability of the latest Management Science system to adapt to the constantly changing tire business.
Abstract: This paper describes how a major tire manufacturer has attained an increase in productivity through the application of Management Science. Like most manufacturers, The Kelly-Springfield Tire Company has long recognized the difficulty and importance of coordinating sales forecasting, inventory control, production planning, and distribution decisions. The evolution of an integrated “Total System” approach is traced, with emphasis on the ability of the latest Management Science system to adapt to the constantly changing tire business. The original Total System, implemented in 1970, reduced production lead time to generate estimated annual savings of $500,000; benefits totaling over $5 million during the past decade. Since the implementation of the latest system in 1976, Kelly-Springfield's share of the auto and truck tire replacement market has increased about 1% in an industry recently characterized by significant losses, excess productive capacity, and intense price competition. Average unit inventory decr...
27 citations
TL;DR: There's a gap between decision scientists and decision makers as discussed by the authors, and it's our responsibility as decision scientists to close this gap, and we need to build some bridges to bridge this gap.
Abstract: There's a gap between decision scientists and decision makers. The decision scientists don't understand decision making; and the decision makers don't understand decision scientists. It's our responsibility as decision scientists to close this gap. I've been applying Management Science methods to the solution of business problems for about 25 years now. In my observation, the gap is growing wider rather than narrower. It's time we built some bridges!
TL;DR: Risk analysis is having a major influence on management decisions involving investments totaling billions of dollars at the Getty Oil Company as mentioned in this paper and is now used for all major decisions on investments in exploration and production and in refinery additions.
Abstract: Risk analysis is having a major influence on management decisions involving investments totaling billions of dollars at the Getty Oil Company. It is now used for all major decisions on investments in exploration and production and in refinery additions. In addition, it is used for decisions on major divestments and acquisitions, where some of the most significant risk analysis work has been done. Making risk analysis a practical management tool has involved development of simple but effective techniques, development of management understanding and support, and implementation of an income uncertainty analysis system which has helped build risk analysis skills and concepts.
TL;DR: A computer system called ELIM-COMPLIP is used by the Department of the Army for manpower planning, budgeting, policy development, and monitoring the progress of manpower programs as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: Through innovative use of Management Science, manpower management in the Army has been significantly improved. A computer system has been developed by General Research Corporation that is used by Headquarters, Department of the Army, for manpower planning, budgeting, policy development, and monitoring the progress of manpower programs. Use of the system, called ELIM-COMPLIP, is central to the management of Army manpower and has been credited by senior Army officials with making several important contributions to improved national defense, including annual savings of more than $100 million in the Army's budget for military personnel, and enabling the number of Army divisions to rise from 13 to 16. The principal output from ELIM-COMPLIP is the Army military manpower program, which contains forecasts of strength, gains, and losses over a seven-year period, based on both historical time-series data and projected effects of changes in policy and other conditions. Included in the system is a goal programming mo...
TL;DR: A goal programming model of the planning process is developed for a large College of Business Administration and concepts related to cost of a constraint, trade-off information, sensitivity profiles, and complete parametric changes are discussed.
Abstract: A goal programming model of the planning process is developed for a large College of Business Administration. In addition to providing the customary budget requirements for goal attainment, concepts related to cost of a constraint, trade-off information, sensitivity profiles, and complete parametric changes are discussed.
TL;DR: Woolley and Pidd as mentioned in this paper found that though most educational programs do (in the United Kingdom at least) attempt to teach problem structuring, most of this effort was based on little or no systematic knowledge.
Abstract: Over the last year or so, we have been attempting to carry out naive research on OR/MS groups. We were a little concerned that though most educational programs do (in the United Kingdom at least) attempt to teach problem structuring, most of this effort was based on little or no systematic knowledge. That is, there seems to be a dearth of empirical research from which lessons could be learned. We found quite a few of the grand old men of OR reflecting on their own experience, but little or no comparative examination of current practice. So we decided to go out and look to see if a rigorous study would be feasible and worthwhile. In addition to our empirical work, we took the time to search through the OR/MS literature to see what could be found therein. The product of that search is reported more fully in another paper [Woolley, R. N., M. Pidd. 1978. Problem structuring in operational research: A review of the literature. Working Paper No. 111, University of Aston Management Centre.]. We thought that read...
TL;DR: The scarce resources of material, machines, energy, and money are very much regulated by the government and are allocated to individual companies on the basis of that company's ability to meet the goals of the government.
Abstract: Attempts to apply conventional Management Science techniques in third world countries such as India must include consideration of complex industrial-social-political situations. At the forefront of every effort is the government's policy of putting more and more people on the payroll. The scarce resources of material, machines, energy, and money are very much regulated by the government and are allocated to individual companies on the basis of that company's ability to meet the goals of the government. This system leads to management models which are anomalies to a person from the western world.
TL;DR: This paper highlights a successful application of queueing theory to the teller staffing decision at Bankers Trust Company of New York, the eighth largest bank in the United States.
Abstract: In the May, 1978 issue of Interfaces, Jack Byrd questioned whether there is use for queueing theory, and he presented a series of scenario problems where queueing theory was not appropriate to solving real life problems. His argument was based upon the complexities of real life environments where (1) non-steady-state conditions could exist, (2) undefined service times were present, (3) unstructured queue disciplines existed, and (4) nonexponential service times were present. Several authors have published articles in this journal in the ensuing period with examples to disprove Byrd's thesis. We further argue that queueing theory is not the end in decision making, but just the beginning of the structuring of a decision making effort. This paper highlights a successful application of queueing theory to the teller staffing decision at Bankers Trust Company of New York, the eighth largest bank in the United States. A more extensive discussion of the bank's background and methodology described in this article ...
TL;DR: Xerox put on hold the development of a high speed xerographic-scanning laser computer printer because prior market research had failed to demonstrate that the company could profitably market such a product as mentioned in this paper.
Abstract: In 1975, Xerox put on “hold” and nearly cancelled the development of a high speed xerographic-scanning laser computer printer because prior market research had failed to demonstrate that the company could profitably market such a product. A team composed of Management Scientists, market researchers, and product planners designed and implemented a market-research-based forecasting system for high-speed computer printers. The forecasting system models the behavior of each market research respondent with respect to choice of computer printers. It predicts his choices from among sets of alternatives and his usage levels of the selected products. The system then uses product marketing scenarios to construct a dynamic version of these predictions and produces detailed forecasts of product populations and usage over time. Use of this system produced a credible analysis of the market; based on this analysis, Xerox decided to develop, announce, and manufacture the 9700 Electronic Printing System. The forecasting s...
TL;DR: A course in field consulting was developed and run for MBA students at Brigham Young University as discussed by the authors, where seven companies sponsored consulting projects for six student teams in a variety of applied areas.
Abstract: A course in field consulting was developed and run for MBA students at Brigham Young University. Seven companies sponsored consulting projects for six student teams in a variety of applied areas. Results were outstandingly good. In this paper, sponsor identification and solicitation are discussed, project administration outlined, and results summarized.
TL;DR: A substantial restudy of the project was undertaken in 1974-76 by the Corps of Engineers as discussed by the authors, which utilized goal programming in order to consider both economic and environmental objectives simultaneously, since these objectives had been considered separately before.
Abstract: A Cross-Florida Navigable Waterway was proposed by the Jefferson Administration (1801–1809) and Congress authorized the first study in 1826. Four alternative routes were considered in the Survey Report of 1829 (Senate Document 102, 20th Congress). Serious construction of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal (CFBC) began in 1964 on the basis of a 1942 authorization. Construction was halted in 1971 with the project about one-third completed and with a sunk investment of about $74 million. Its status is described as “holding.” A substantial restudy of the project was undertaken in 1974–76 by the Corps of Engineers. One of these restudy efforts, sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency, utilized goal programming in order to consider both economic and environmental objectives simultaneously. Since these objectives had been considered separately before, the approach was a step forward. There were the difficult problems of quantification of environmental goals and specification of priority weights to measure ec...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors question the validity of inventory theory, since it appears to be impossible to measure any of these costs, and conclude that marginal costs would be irrelevant in a more empirical theory, which should concentrate on macro-level policy analysis rather than micro-level cost minimization.
Abstract: In inventory theory, the typical model assumes the existence of marginal cost data for ordering, holding, and shortages of stock. This paper questions the validity of inventory theory, since it appears to be impossible to measure any of these costs. We conclude that marginal costs would be irrelevant in a more empirical theory, which should concentrate on macrolevel policy analysis rather than microlevel cost minimization.
TL;DR: In this paper, a procedure for reducing voter waiting time at the polls is described, which employs a joint use of queueing theory and simulation, the procedure is a cookbook-like methodology, to be used by the typically nontechnical election official, making complex modeling details transparent to him.
Abstract: Excessive voter waiting time is widely accepted to be a deterrent to voter turnout at elections. This paper describes a procedure for reducing voter waiting lime at the polls. While the underlying model employs a joint use of queueing theory and simulation, the procedure is a cookbook-like methodology, to be used by the typically nontechnical election official, making complex modeling details transparent to him. This paper describes important aspects of model development and provides an illustration of the use of the methodology.
TL;DR: The object of Management Science 35 years ago was to blend Management (concerned with people, organizational structure, motivation, leadership) and Science (conscerned with rationality, theory, systems, the impersonal) into a working relationship as discussed by the authors.
Abstract: The object of Management Science 35 years ago was to blend Management (concerned with people, organizational structure, motivation, leadership) and Science (concerned with rationality, theory, systems, the impersonal) into a working relationship. Management Science got its start working on problems that were too big for any one individual to approach. It was seen that a team effort to synthesize different perspectives was needed to tackle large problems. Many managers disliked this new field because it threatened to take away their jobs and thus somehow the whole discipline was shunted off towards Science, with mathematics, rather than problems, being the rationale for existence. Thus Management Science became Management/Science and problems developed in the interface between managers and scientists. A group of people called “managers” would look at operations, make decisions, and manage the company. Another group called “scientists” would do research on theoretical problems and develop algorithms; they w...
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe an application of the single period inventory problem to another product which has an extremely short shelf life, donuts, which was used to give the management of a highly decentralized chain of donut shops an indication as to how modifications in pricing structure could res...
Abstract: The single period inventory problem deals with goods which have a characteristically short shelf life or selling season. For this reason the inventory decision is simply how much to produce or stock in order to meet the demand of one selling period. While there are several areas of application which come to mind, perhaps the clearest example of this situation is in the newspaper industry. The problem here is to determine how many papers to supply a newsstand in order to optimize profitability. For this reason the single period inventory problem is oftentimes referred to as “The Newsboy Problem.” In this paper we describe an application of the single period inventory problem to another product which has an extremely short shelf life, donuts. The application of the model was not, however, made for the purpose of determining an optimal production plan. Rather, it was used to give the management of a highly decentralized chain of donut shops an indication as to how modifications in pricing structure could res...
TL;DR: A quick and dirty proposal for a vehicle routing procedure suitable for fleet environments where several customers are served on each route is presented in this paper, where the authors propose a routing procedure for vehicles in a fleet environment.
Abstract: A “quick and dirty” proposal for a vehicle routing procedure suitable for fleet environments where several customers are served on each route is presented.
TL;DR: The University of Tennessee system operates a fleet of nearly 900 vehicles to facilitate the institutional travel requirements of administration, faculty, staff, and students as mentioned in this paper, with a specific focus on the size and composition of the dispatch fleet.
Abstract: Many diverse types of organizations, including public agencies, own fleets of vehicles to service work-related travel by employees. The University of Tennessee system operates such a fleet to facilitate the institutional travel requirements of administration, faculty, staff, and students. Nearly 900 vehicles of various types are located at the Knoxville campus to provide this service. Although the majority of these vehicles are permanently or semipermanently dedicated to specific functions (e.g., maintenance, safety and security, utilities, etc.) a large number are maintained on a demand basis to support University travel to off-campus meetings, field projects, and the like. As of 1976, the demand or dispatch fleet consisted of 145 passenger vehicles. An cost/effectiveness analysis of the motor pool's operations, with a specific focus on the size and composition of the dispatch fleet is presented.
TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe financial difficulty for one of the Brazilian affiliates of a USA-based company because of mandatory bank deposits highly devalued by inflation, and an ABC analysis provided a good insight into the situation and enabled a considerable improvement in the company's performance.
Abstract: Successful operation of a manufacturing firm depends to a large extent on an adequate inventory balance of raw materials and components. Excess inventory means a high amount of tied-up capital; a low inventory can produce interruption in the production flow. Appropriate inventory levels become even more crucial when part of the material is imported. Long lead times add to the uncertainty of demand between replenishments; in addition, import restriction laws issued by foreign countries where affiliates of multinational companies are located must also be taken into consideration. This paper describes financial difficulty for one of the Brazilian affiliates of a USA-based company because of mandatory bank deposits highly devalued by inflation. An ABC analysis provided a good insight into the situation and enabled a considerable improvement in the company's performance.
TL;DR: In this paper, a multi-objective formulation of a research resource allocation decision for ballistic missile defense technology management is presented. But, the problem of resource allocation is not addressed in this paper.
Abstract: This paper describes a multi-objective formulation of a research resource allocation decision which treats both project selection and funding level considerations. The procedure, which is now being integrated into the planning process for ballistic missile defense technology management, should find many applications in research management activity. We will illustrate the procedure with an actual ballistics missile defense case situation involving six research projects relating to various aspects of strategic defense systems analysis. All descriptive data used in the case is from the 1979 fiscal year.
TL;DR: The Morgan County Emergency Medical Service (MCEMS) as discussed by the authors has been located in the second floor and garage of a building owned by a beer distributor since its inception in 1976, since the garage supports would not safely accommodate the weight of the vehicles and the owner of the building was unwilling to have the facility improved.
Abstract: The Morgan County Emergency Medical Service (MCEMS), West Virginia, was faced with a problem. Since its inception in 1976, it had been housed in the second floor and garage of a building owned by a beer distributor. The station, although conveniently located, was inadequate for physical reasons. The garage supports would not safely accommodate the weight of the vehicles, and the owner of the building was unwilling to have the facility improved. As the MCEMS expanded, the amount of space that was available became inadequate and several of the vehicles had to be parked along the highway. The MCEMS decided to request funds from the Morgan County Commissioners to lease or purchase a more adequate and compatible facility. One of the authors had performed a feasibility study for a new facility, before MCEMS approached the County Commission to request building funds.
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss their experiences in using real applications as a major part of a course in operations analysis in their MBA program and discuss the behavioral difficulties associated with getting management to agree on goals on objectives associated with projects.
Abstract: A great deal has been written in this journal and elsewhere on the practice of Management Science. The high step from theoretical quantitative techniques to real world application is appreciated by practitioners and passed over by the theoreticians. It is no longer acceptable for business academicians to present topic after topic from Operations Research texts with short single paragraph applications. The luck of data for real problems and the behavioral difficulties associated with getting management to agree on goals on objectives associated with projects are usually as great difficulties as finding an appropriate tool. This paper discusses my experiences in using real applications as a major part of a course in operations analysis in our MBA program.