Showing papers in "International Journal of Environment and Pollution in 2001"

Evaluation of the ADMS, AERMOD, and ISC3 dispersion models with the OPTEX, Duke Forest, Kincaid, Indianapolis and Lovett field datasets

Abstract: The model evaluation exercise addresses the question of whether the new models, ADMS and AERMOD, produce improvements over ISC3 when compared with a range of field observations. ADMS and AERMOD have similar state-of-the-art scientific components, whereas ISC3 contains 1960s technology. The five sets of field observations used in the statistical evaluation represent a cross-section of typical scenarios encountered by modellers. The OPTEX database deals with non-buoyant tracer releases within an oil refinery complex, and the Duke Forest database involves non-buoyant tracer releases from area and volume sources in an open field. The Kincaid, Indianapolis and Lovett databases all deal with buoyant plumes from tall stacks at power plants. However, the settings for each are quite different, since the Kincaid plant is surrounded by flat farmland, the Indianapolis plant is located in an urban environment, and the Lovett plant is situated in a valley surrounded by complex terrain with monitors at higher elevations than the stack. Analysis of the model performance measures suggests that ISC3 typically overpredicts and has a scatter of about a factor of three. Approximately 33% of its predictions are within a factor of two of observations. The ADMS performance is slightly better than the AERMOD performance and both perform better than ISC3. On average, ADMS underpredicts by about 20% and AERMOD underpredicts by about 40%, and both have a scatter of about a factor of two. Approximately 53% and 46% of the ADMS and AERMOD predictions, respectively, are within a factor of two of observations. Considering only the highest predicted and observed concentrations, ISC3 overpredicts by a factor of seven, on average, while ADMS and AERMOD underpredict by, on average, 20%.

Sustainable household consumption and quality of life: the acceptability of sustainable consumption patterns and consumer policy strategies

Abstract: A multidisciplinary computer-based field study among 393 Dutch households examined how people judge the "social" sustainability (quality-of-life effects) of "environmentally" sustainable household consumption patterns (less energy-use demanding) and associated policy options. The study revealed that about two-thirds of the households had to reduce their direct and indirect energy use within the next five years in order to move towards environmentally sustainable consumption patterns. The least sustainable consumption patterns were found among high-income groups and young couples. Overall, respondents did not believe that their quality of life will be affected as long as the necessary reduction of energy use stays below 30 gigajoules (24% of their total household energy use). Moreover, respondents were willing to accept almost all energy-saving policy measures. However, respondents did appear to be more willing to pay for sustaining their comfort, freedom and pleasure while reducing the environmental impact of their consumption than they were to give up some of their quality of life.

Meteorology applied to urban air pollution problems: COST 715

Abstract: The requirements of the framework Directive on air quality assessment and management introduce real practical problems for the meteorological community. Some of the meteorological variables needed in urban air pollution assessments are not routinely measured and in normal circumstances the number of meteorological stations in urban areas is limited to a few sites, often just at airports. The European wide project COST 715 on 'Meteorology applied to urban air pollution problems' has been set up to review these problems. This paper describes the limitations of current methods. It recognizes that the urban boundary layer is a non-equilibrium situation where standard theories applied to rural areas may not be valid. It shows that predictions of concentrations for assessments should always state the uncertainty associated with them. This uncertainty can be large because of the complexity of urban pollution situations, particularly the description of the local urban meteorology. An example is given of how, with some additional local meteorological measurements, the uncertainty can be reduced. The paper concludes by listing some of the key areas where further work is required. Information about the COST 715 project is available from the website at http://www.dmu.dk/atmosphericenvironment/cost715.htm.

The SMEDIS database and validation exercise

Abstract: SMEDIS is an ongoing research project funded by the European Union under the Environment and Climate Research Programme for the period 1996-1999. The project is coordinated by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE, UK) with two other main partners: Cambridge Environmental Research Consultants (CERC, UK) and Electricite de France (EDF, France). Ten additional partners from across Europe are also participants in the project. The main objective of the project is to develop a methodology for the evaluation of dense gas atmospheric dispersion models used in the study of accidental releases of explosive or toxic materials. This evaluation is composed of a scientific assessment of each model, together with a validation by comparison with available experimental data. This paper describes more specifically the database constructed, and the validation performed by the participants involved in the project. Preliminary results indicate that the restriction for arcwise concentrations leads to an optimistic view of model performance when complex effects are present and that, in general, statistical performance is better for more sophisticated models.

Economic evaluation of a landfill system with gas recovery for municipal solid waste management: a case study

Abstract: Economic activity uses resources, which leads to waste generation. With rapid industrialisation and urbanisation, per capita solid waste generation has increased considerably. Solid waste generation data for last two decades shows an alarming increase. Owing to its improper and untimely collection, the transport and disposal of municipal solid waste poses a severe threat to various components of the environment and also to public health. This paper describes the merits and demerits of various technological aspects of solid waste management. Landfill technology, as it is the most widely employed and is regarded as the most suitable and simple mechanism, especially for tropical countries such as India, is emphasised. All possible costs and benefits and externalities are examined. A cost-benefit analysis of a landfill system with gas recovery (LFSGR) has been carried out for Mumbai city's solid waste, accounting for certain external costs and benefits, and found that it could make a huge difference of savings of about Rs. 6.366 billion (approx. $0.l40 billion) per annum with reference to the existing system of waste disposal.

The impact of household food consumption on resource and energy management

Abstract: How can private households contribute to a more resource-efficient food production system? The importance of meat consumption has previously been highlighted. Various life-cycle analysis studies suggest which products are favourable from an ecological point of view. This study uses a material flux analysis to assess material and energy fluxes of the entire system of food production and consumption. It compares different steps in production and consumption as well as different product categories. The results reveal that agricultural production and private households account for most of the system's energy requirements. The outcomes of two possible initiatives taken by private households are analysed by scenario calculation. It compares optimisation of technical devices in private households with purchase decisions that favour organically produced food products. The results reveal an astonishing optimisation potential of cooling devices in private households. However, it also shows the importance of specific parameters, such as the energy-mix coefficient.

Simulations of atmospheric dispersion in an urban stable boundary layer

Abstract: The results of numerical simulations of tracer dispersion in an urban stable boundary layer are presented. Both Gaussian approximation and fourth order closure are considered and a Gram-Charlier probability density function is used in our Lagrangian stochastic model. Different parameterizations for the boundary-layer height and different values of kurtosis are tested. The model is based on the generalized Langevin equation, whose coefficients are solution of the Fokker-Planck equation and plume rise is taken into account. The model accuracy is assessed by means of a model evaluation based on the predicted and observed crosswind integrated concentrations, maximum on the arc and standard deviation of the crosswind concentration distribution on the arc.

Changing consumption patterns and CO2 reduction

Abstract: Today, most countries are facing national CO2 targets focused on production and direct energy use. However, two important driving forces are increased consumption and changing consumption patterns. In this paper, we analyse the impact from household consumption on CO2 emissions. Household energy use is taken into account, as is the consumption of commodities and services produced by industry. Based on Danish data, we estimate the CO2 impact from different commodities. Further, we analyse the impact of changes in commodity mix in Danish household consumption in the period from 1966 to 1992. The results show that the change in commodity mix has been insufficient to compensate for the overall growth in Danish consumption. Further, we see that the consumption of food is a main contributor to overall Danish CO2 emissions.

Interaction between environmental policy instruments: carbon emissions trading and Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control

Abstract: As the number of environmental policy instruments grows, so the potential for interaction between different instruments increases. This interaction can be detrimental or beneficial. To avoid conflict, it is essential that the potential for interaction be assessed during the formulation of new policy instruments. This paper illustrates this through an analysis of how the European Directive on Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control might interact with future schemes for carbon emissions trading. Both instruments encourage industrial energy efficiency, but in fundamentally different ways. This is demonstrated through a detailed comparison of the two policy instruments, followed by the development of three implementation scenarios for IPPC, in which the interaction with potential carbon trading schemes is assessed. The paper concludes that the interpretation of the IPPC energy efficiency requirements could either constrain or facilitate the participation of regulated installations in any carbon trading scheme.

The environmental impact of changing consumption patterns: a survey.

Abstract: How does environmental impact change when national income increases? So far, this question has been mainly discussed from the point of view of production, but in recent years several studies have dealt with the question of decoupling from the point of view of consumption. The optimistic subscribers to decoupling argue that, with increasing income, the composition of consumption changes in the direction of more environment-friendly goods and services. This paper discusses this hypothesis critically on the basis of several studies dealing with historical experience. First, it is argued that an overall assessment of the environmental impact is most appropriately based on an input approach. Then data on input intensities for different categories of consumption goods are combined with data on changes in consumption patterns, and it is concluded that the historical changes in the composition of consumption seem to have done little to counterbalance the environmental effects of growth.

From the right to be informed to the right to participate: responding to the evolution of European legislation with ICT

Abstract: In this paper, we review the European legislation on environment, health and safety in relation to the involvement of citizens. We follow its evolution from the "right to be informed" to the "right to participate". A case study of participative research is presented, stressing the role of innovative and interactive information and communication technology (ICT). We report on the design of an information campaign for the management of risks in the area of Porto Marghera (Venice, Italy). The internet (world wide web, e-mail and other ICT) can be deployed to establish a communication space among administrators, technical experts and the community. The well-known drawing of the "Escher"s Hands' is used as a metaphor to show the concept of a reflexive engagement of all actors in a decision situation, fostering a dialogue among multiple perspectives and types of knowledge.

Evaluation of inversion strengths and mixing heights during extremely stable atmospheric stratification

Abstract: We have compiled data from Finnish sounding stations and classified the inversions according to their total depth and the stability of the boundary layer. We studied the persistence of the inversions and the influence of cloudiness and wind speed on the temperature gradient. Additionally, we addressed the specific problems of an urban area, using measurements from a meteorological mast situated in the Helsinki metropolitan area and comparing them to those from the radiosonde profiles at the rural site of Jokioinen. We also compared several common schemes for the height of the stable boundary layer to results from our own Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) method. Based on this analysis a modification to the FMI method was suggested.

Operational meteorological pre-processing at Emilia- Romagna ARPA Meteorological Service as a part of a decision support system for air quality management.

Abstract: In the framework of the Integrated Decision Support System for air quality assessment and management operating at the Emilia-Romagna Region Meteorological Service, an appropriate meteorological input is necessary: 1) to provide meteorological information for evaluation of the pollution data observed at the urban monitoring stations; 2) as input data to run daily statistical models for air quality forecasts; 3) as input to run deterministic dispersion models. Thus, a meteorological pre-processor has been implemented operationally. The runs are made on a daily basis in a diagnostic configuration in the whole Po valley basin and for forecasting on selected grid points near the main urban areas of the Emilia-Romagna region.

Micrometeorological simulations over a complex terrain with SUBMESO: a model study using a novel pre-processor

Abstract: Effects of topography on micrometeorological fields may have a great impact on noise propagation. Consequently, we discuss some preliminary results from a modelling study of short-term evolution of wind and temperature over a smooth, non-flat terrain. The study is performed using the 3-D model SUBMESO. A new meteorological pre-processor (MPP) has been implemented to specify vertical profiles of wind, temperature and other scalar quantities, which can be used to drive the flow and set the model reference state. Numerical simulations have been performed in strongly convective and neutral shear-driven conditions. We obtain results similar to those from reference simulations over flat terrain and ascertain that the small-scale topography modifies the mean flow and the structure of the instantaneous velocity field in both cases. Unlike what is expected for stable stratification, no channelling effect is visible for the atmospheric conditions considered here. This study is a first validation of the MPP device.

Description and application of the EAP computer program for calculating life-cycle energy use and greenhouse gas emissions of household consumption items

Abstract: Focusing on reduction in energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, a life-cycle-based analysis tool has been developed. The energy analysis program (EAP) is a computer program for determining energy use and greenhouse gas emissions related to household consumption items, using a hybrid calculation method. EAP consists of a number of fill-in screens corresponding to steps in the hybrid method, which in their turn correspond to different stages in life-cycles of consumer goods. The database incorporated in EAP comprises data about energy use and emissions of the main greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4and N2O) concerning materials, economic sectors, means of transport, etc. The use of the program in several projects showed the applicability and usefulness of EAP in research and policy. In this article, EAP is applied to food: French beans as a metaphor for fruit and vegetables.

Intertemporal social choice and climate stabilization

Abstract: This paper examines the implications of alternative approaches to intertemporal social choice in a numerically calibrated model of interactions between global climate change and the world economy. Under cost-benefit analysis, relatively modest steps towards greenhouse gas emissions abatement are justified as economically efficient. Under classical utilitarianism and the precautionary principle, in contrast, aggressive steps towards climate stabilization emerge as socially optimal. The paper reviews the value judgements that support each of these normative approaches, arguing that the precautionary principle is most closely tied to the goals and objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Development and evaluation of the ADMS building effects module

Abstract: The structure and algorithms which comprise the ADMS building effects module are summarized and their performance illustrated against ground-level concentration distributions for seven test cases. Overall, this reveals a mean bias up to a factor of 3, being on average a factor of 2 in the near-wake and 0.7 in the main-wake. Some issues that arose from the model development and application are then analysed. Finally, general limits on the performance of building effects models are discussed.

Modelling the transport and dispersion of pollutants in street canyons

Abstract: The transport and dispersion of pollutants in a street canyon, and the intersection between two streets, have been studied using wind-tunnel experiments and numerical simulations. The study of the street canyon demonstrates the importance of the geometry of the canyon (aspect ratio, asymmetry) in determining both the topology of the flow and the concentration distribution; the flow is also very sensitive to wind direction. The study of the street intersection shows how the intersection influences the flow and dispersion in the adjoining streets. This work has been used to develop new and practical models for flow and dispersion in city streets; these models are compared here with the results from wind-tunnel experiments and numerical simulations.

The Dyson effect: carbon "offset" forestry and the privatisation of the atmosphere

Abstract: This paper examines the increasingly fashionable view that vast tree plantations are a viable way of mitigating the climatic effects of industrial carbon dioxide emissions. It argues that this approach to global warming is based on bad science, enlarges rather than reduces richer societies' ecological footprint, and reinforces neo-colonialist structures of power.

Assessing the benefits of the greenhouse gas emission reduction policy: a pilot case study of Korea

Abstract: Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to avert or slow climate change has become an increasingly important policy issue in developing countries such as Korea, as well as in developed countries. This paper uses the willingness to pay survey technique to assess the benefits that would ensue from a proposed OHO emissions reduction policy. It aims to provide at least a preliminary evaluation of the policy, using Korea as a specific case study. Respondents overall accepted the contingent market and were on average willing to contribute a significant amount toward the GHG emissions reduction policy. This willingness varies according to respondents' individual characteristics and environmental concerns. Finally, this study discusses the importance of including the climate change problem in cost—benefit analysis and presents the policy implications of the results.

Methodology of model testing and application to dispersion simulation above complex terrain

Abstract: This paper concerns an integrated model testing exercise focussed on the use of model performance statistical indices. SAFE_AIR is a multisource model mainly designed to describe dispersion of airborne pollutants from point sources at local-to-regional scales over complex terrain in non-stationary meteorological and emission conditions. It was applied in the region of Ilo, Peru, a complex coastal area where a tracer (SF6 ) was emitted from a copper smelter plant to collect field data about pollutant dispersion in the area. To compare measured concentrations with predicted concentrations, the statistical indices suggested in the Model Evaluation Kit (MEAN, SIGMA, BIAS, NMSE, COR, FA2, FB and FS) and two less common ones (WNNR and NNR) were used.

Evaluation of a 3-D flow and pollutant dispersion modelling system to estimate climatological groundlevel concentrations in complex coastal sites

Abstract: A three-dimensional modelling system, made by a mass-consistent wind field model and by a Lagrangian particle model, has been applied to a Mediterranean complex coastal site to describe the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants emitted by a thermal power plant. Different short-term episodes have been simulated to cover the seasonal climate variability. Model results have been compared with local SO2 measurements showing their reliability in reconstructing space and time concentration variations. Modelling results, together with the statistics of the "weather type" associated with each episode, have been used to estimate climatological concentrations for the considered site. The latter methodology can be proposed to assess the air quality in complex areas.

Household energy consumption in Switzerland

Abstract: Households consume more energy embodied in goods and services than they consume with energy carriers. Thus, energy assessments need to address both direct consumption and indirect consumption via commodities. This paper first presents a conceptual framework for describing and analysing the direct and indirect energy use of households. The framework is based on material flux analysis and differentiates between four household activities feeding, housing, transporting and consuming. Secondly, Swiss data on household energy consumption are presented and discussed in the context of household size, technology and consumption behaviour. It is shown that these factors considerably shape per capita energy demand. The third part presents energy projections based on trend assumptions for demographic and technological developments for the next 30 years. When zero growth per capita in commodities consumption is assumed, overall energy demand will increase by about 5%, mainly due to strong increases in gasoline demand. When the growth rate of commodities consumption exceeds 0.3% per year, embodied energy demand will offset efficiency gains achieved by technological improvements in the economic and domestic sectors and will fuel overall energy growth.

Validation of the dispersion model CAR-FMI against measurements near a major road

Abstract: A field measurement campaign was conducted near a major road in southern Finland from 15 September to 30 October 1995. The concentrations of NO, NO2 and O3 were measured simultaneously at three locations, at three heights (3.5, 6 and 10 m) on both sides of the road. The relevant meteorological parameters and traffic densities were also measured on site. We have compared measured concentration data with the predictions from the road network dispersion model CAR-FMI, used in combination with a meteorological preprocessing model. According to statistical analyses used, the overall agreement of the model predictions and measured data was reasonably good. For all data (N = 587), the modelling system overpredicts NOx concentrations with a fractional bias FB = +0.13 and O3 concentrations with FB = +0.08, while for NO2 concentrations FB = -0.02. The experimental dataset is available for the evaluation of other roadside dispersion models.

Removal mechanism of endosulfan sorption onto wood charcoal.

Abstract: Endosulfan is among the most widely used pesticides in developing countries and other parts of the world and has been found to contaminate various parts of the environment, including drinking water sources. In an earlier study to find a suitable adsorbent to remove endosulfan, wood charcoal was found to give promising results. In the present study, the process controlling the rate of endosulfan sorption onto wood charcoal and the mechanism of removal were examined using various methodologies. Both film and pore diffusion coefficients were determined, and the linearity of the rate constants of adsorption with initial endosulfan concentrations revealed the process to be controlled by film diffusion. This was supported by the linear fit of the rate constants with the inverse of the diameter of adsorbent particles and the change in adsorption rates with agitation speed. Multiple interruption tests also revealed that endosulfan sorption onto wood charcoal is controlled by film diffusion. The increase in reaction rate constant with temperature and isosteric heat of adsorption in the range of -2.655 to 5.185 kcal/mol implied that the endosulfan removal process was endothermic in nature. The activation energy of 2.33 kcal/mol, which was less than 12 kcal/mol, revealed that the removal mechanism could be attributed to physisorption with a major contribution of van der Waals and electrostatic forces.

Determination of compliance with UK and EU air quality objectives from high-resolution pollutant concentration maps calculated using ADMS-Urban

Abstract: The main features and functionality of the urban air quality version of ADMS (ADMS-Urban) have been presented at previous Harmonization Workshops. The system has now been set up and applied to air quality management, decision support and air quality forecasting in a number of major cities in Europe and beyond, including London. Key recent developments of the system include a regional chemistry model, links to real time and forecasted meteorological data and an advanced emission database (EMIT) for calculating current and projected road traffic emissions from different diurnal traffic flow profiles and vehicle mixes. In this study we consider a detailed analysis of the impact of various road traffic measures, such as high maintenance, low emission zones, increased bus use, reduced traffic flow etc, applied to the Birmingham metropolitan area. We show the impact on compliance or otherwise with the UK National Air Quality Strategy objectives and the proposed EU air quality daughter objectives. We also present high-resolution maps of calculations for London of predictions based on projected vehicle emission changes for the years 2004 and 2005. Both these sets of results are being used by policymakers in local authorities in the preparation of their air quality management plans.

A street canyon model for low wind-speed conditions

Abstract: The aim of the present work is to develop a simple model in order to calculate the vertical pollutant distribution inside a street canyon at low wind speed. It is aimed at providing a relationship between traffic emission and the pollutant in excess. It is assumed that street ventilation is controlled by the vertical turbulent diffusion. The diffusion coefficient Kz must be known. In the present study, the correlation between calculated and experimental values will be shown, which makes it possible to estimate this parameter.

The parable of the carpenter

Abstract: When valuing environmental functions in a neo-classical framework, both data on opportunity costs, reflected on an elimination costs or supply curve, and data on preferences, reflected on a revealed preferences or demand curve, are indispensable. It is, in principle, always possible to estimate the opportunity costs, be it sometimes with great uncertainty margins. This is not the case with data on preferences, such as expenditure on compensation resulting from losses of function (compensation costs). Therefore, making assumptions about preferences is inevitable. Consequently, there are as many values for functions and green national incomes as (reasonable) assumptions can be made. In the latter case, a comparative static general equilibrium model has to be used, because of the major changes occurring. Preliminary results of the elaboration of the Sustainable National Income according to Hueting make it plausible that the distance to sustainability is substantial. Carpenters and economists should be judged in the same way.

Ambient air quality levels in Tehran, Iran, from 1988 to 1993

Abstract: The objectives of this study were to describe trends in ambient air quality in Tehran between 1988 and 1993, to determine if these levels exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, and to discuss possible health effects related to exposure for these particular pollutants. Data were acquired from Iran's Environmental Protection Agency (IEPA) and the Ministry of Health (MH). These agencies operate five automated ambient air monitoring stations located in areas with heavy traffic. Daily samples of SO2, NO2, CO, total suspended particulate matter (TSM), and hydrocarbons (HC) were collected to provide 24 hour averages for each pollutant. Every three months, mean concentrations were reported to IEPA. Composite samples from all five stations were stored in a databank operated by IEPA. The ambient air quality guidelines were obtained from WHO reports. Statistical analysis was carried out using a regression model, which was designed to fit the air pollution data and take into account missing data. The results showed that there was a statistically significant upward trend in air pollution levels for all of the measured pollutants, except NO2, during the years 1988 to 1993. WHO guidelines were routinely and substantially exceeded by all pollutants except TSM. These findings suggest that as the population continues to grow, and increasing numbers of motor vehicles are driven in Tehran, there is concern for the health effects that may result from exposure to these pollutants.