Showing papers in "Journal of Macroeconomics in 2014"

TL;DR: This article used an instrumental variable approach to study whether public debt has a causal effect on economic growth in a sample of OECD countries and found that there is no evidence that public debt is associated with economic growth.

TL;DR: This paper examined the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-level investment, and found that economic policy uncertainties in interaction with firm level uncertainty depresses firms' investment decisions.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of Ireland's macroeconomic performance over the past decade, presenting the underlying facts about the boom, bust and (currently limited) recovery, and discuss some common fallacies and misrepresentations of economic events in Ireland.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors investigated the linear and nonlinear effects of financial regulation policy uncertainty shocks on US macroeconomic aggregates within a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework and showed that these effects are asymmetric over the business cycle, i.e., credit spreads are estimated to rise three times more during recessions than in non-recessionary periods.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors provide a rigorous empirical analysis of this relationship in a comprehensive cross-country panel by decomposing the emissions and GDP series into their growth and cyclical components using the HP filter.

TL;DR: This article investigated the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth in an overlapping generations model with family altruism where private and public investments in human capital of children are the engine of endogenous growth.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine historical data from 10 emerging Asian countries to assess whether countercyclical tax adjustments can support future growth in the region, and they find that tax cuts have a greater counter-cyclical impact on output than government spending.

TL;DR: In this article, a narrative on monetary policy and the banking sector during the two recent euro area recessions is presented, showing that while in the two episodes of recession and financial stress the ECB acted aggressively providing liquidity to banks, unlike the first, the second recession was characterized by an abnormal decline of loans with respect to both real economic activity and the monetary aggregates.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors assess empirically the effects of enterprise credit market and household credit market on economic growth, based on estimations of OLS and IV regression and GMM dynamic panel data model.

TL;DR: In this paper, a semiparametric model that allows corruption to influence the relationship between the conditioning variables and GDP growth, parameter heterogeneity of unknown form, and the use of instrumental variables was proposed.

TL;DR: In this article, the resilience of the Portuguese labor market, in terms of job flows, employment and wage developments, in the context of the current recession, is studied, and the authors uncover what they believe is convincing evidence that the severity of credit constraints played a significant role in the current job destruction process.

TL;DR: This article study the relationship between US money and financial assets since 2000 and find that sizeable spillovers arise during periods of economic and financial turbulence (after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, the post-Lehman Brothers bankruptcy period, and in the second half of 2011 when there were concerns about sovereign market developments).

TL;DR: The crisis in the Euro Area as discussed by the authors has revealed the need for an adequate adjustment mechanism, the links between banking and sovereign crises, and the sharp costs of adjustment to adverse asymmetric shocks.

TL;DR: In this article, it was shown that the conventional monetary model of exchange rates can outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting if forecasting power is measured by direction accuracy and profitability.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors argue that the banking sectors of core and peripheral countries were responsible for financing the credit boom that created the imbalances and vulnerabilities that later were at the centre of the crisis.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors provide an overview of the sovereign debt crisis and discuss policy choices when a financial crisis erupts and assess the adjustment processes in the crisis countries, including alternatives to policies of austerity.

TL;DR: This paper investigated the impact of economic fundamentals, sovereign credit ratings, political uncertainty, and the ECB Securities Markets Program (SMP) on Greek sovereign spreads and found that sovereign downgrades and political uncertainty appeared to have been drivers of the sharp rises in Greek sovereign yields from 2008-2009.

TL;DR: This paper used regression tree analysis to identify possible economic development thresholds in the relationship between the level of manufacturing exports and GDP per capita growth and found that a country needs to achieve a minimum level of human capital before it is beneficial to transition from a reliance on primary exports to manufacturing exports.

TL;DR: This paper found that the U.S. wage-price Phillips curve is nonlinear and convex, and that changes in the unemployment rate below the average unemployment rate exert significantly higher wage pressure than changes in a higher unemployment rate above the historical average.

TL;DR: The authors argue that contrary to what was expected, i.e. that a monetary union loosens fiscal discipline, it actually leads to too much fiscal discipline in the Eurozone, and provide empirical evidence for these two effects.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors examined the interactions between public and private sector wages per employee in OECD countries and found that the growth of public sector wages and of public-sector employment positively affects the private-sector wages, while total factor productivity, the unemployment rate and the degree of urbanisation are also important determinants of private sector wage growth.

TL;DR: This paper analyzed why the Eurozone crisis increasingly resembles Latin America's lost decade instead of Asia's phoenix miracle, emphasizing the roles of the real exchange rate, the external environment, and debt restructuring.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe the origins of the Greek financial crisis and discuss the progress that Greece has made in adjusting its economy, and describe the strategy developed by Bank of Greece to transform the banking system.

TL;DR: In this article, the macroeconomic effects of environmental tax reform in a growing economy were examined using a model of endogenous growth based on human capital accumulation to simulate numerically the growth effects of different environmental tax reforms and calculate their impact on welfare.

TL;DR: Grossman et al. as discussed by the authors proposed a novel chronology of global business cycles based on industrial production data for a sample of 85 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until 2012 and the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors study seven potential drivers of house price dynamics in China using vector autoregressions identified with theory-consistent sign restrictions. And they show that, even if all shocks play relevant roles, productivity, savings glut, and policy stimulus have been the dominant drivers.

TL;DR: The authors survey the use of behavioral economics to improve the New Keynesian model and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using behavioral economics features in macroeconomic models, as well as discuss the advantage and disadvantages.

TL;DR: The EMU has no such safety valve as mentioned in this paper, which has meant that present day Greece and other peripheral European countries have suffered much greater economic harm than did Argentina in the Baring Crisis of 1890.

TL;DR: The authors argue that macroeconomic stability depends less on riskless interest rates than on leverage and other measures of credit conditions, like average FICO scores of borrowers, and suggest that the leverage cycle played a central role in the recent American and European financial crisis.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined whether the adoption of the euro had a significant impact on the synchronization of business cycles among members of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), and they uncovered a strong and robust empirical finding: the adoption has significantly increased the correlation of member countries' business cycles above and beyond the effect of higher trade integration.