Showing papers in "Mershon International Studies Review in 1995"

Foreign Policy Analysis Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow

Abstract: The catalytic shock of the end of the Cold War and the apparent inability of international relations (IR) theory to predict this profound change have raised questions about how we should go about understanding the world of today. Our inherited tools and ways of describing the international arena seem not to work as well as they once did. To explain and predict the behavior of the human collectivities comprising nation-states, IR theory requires a theory of human political choice. Within the study of IR, foreign policy analysis (FPA) has begun to develop such a theoretical perspective. From its inception, FPA has involved the examination of how foreign policy decisions are made and has assumed that human beings, acting individually or in collectivities, are the source of much behavior and most change in international politics. This article reviews the field of foreign policy analysis, examining its research core and its evolution to date. The overview also looks forward, pointing to the future, not only of FPA itself, but to the implications that future developments in FPA may have for the study of international relations.

Grasping the Peace Dividend: Some Propositions on the Conversion of Swords into Plowshares

Abstract: This review discusses the likely size, pace, and distribution of reductions in defense spending and the possible barriers to converting military resources to civilian purposes. It argues that the prospects for a peace dividend in the aftermath of the Cold War are clouded by political incentives and economic interests that may oppose or retard significant military retrenchment. Moreover, the resource savings from any military retrenchment may not necessarily be reallocated fully and efficiently to produce gains in civilian production and productivity. Any such gains are apt to take some time to materialize, whereas the political costs and socioeconomic disruption caused by lower military expenditures are likely to be felt more immediately. The impacts of a defense cutback, both positive and negative, will be uneven across industries, occupations, regions, and ethnic and income groups, so that some will bear more of the adjustment costs while others will reap more of the ensuing benefits. Indeed, given their different social institutions, political cultures, and economic structures, different countries are likely to pursue alternative policy offsets that accompany any defense cutback, thus resulting in an uneven distribution of the peace dividend globally.

Modelling Decisions in International Relations: Game Theory and Beyond

Abstract: Renewed interest in Game Theory and its extensions comes at a time when richer models than ever before are on offer. This paper starts with a non-technical introduction to game models, arguing that they can best be used to provide an understanding of decisions, rather than prescriptions. It then examines some common criticisms of the approach, in particular those surrounding the concept of “rational choice.” Extensions to the basic model are then illustrated: for example, approaches stressing differences in perception or introducing “internal” and “external” games. Rather than being restricted to rational choice in a narrow sense, these approaches offer a richer picture of decision-making as “reflective choice.” More radical possible developments include replacing the “game” metaphor by that of “drama,” and combining formal analysis with empirical theory to create “knowledge-based” modelling methods.

Structural Realism and the Causes of War

Abstract: Structural realism is the most prominent contemporary version of realpolitik, the traditional paradigm in the study of world politics. However, given recent evidence that favors dyadic over systemic explanations for the outbreak of war, it is appropriate to reassess the achievements of structural realism in this, its most important area of application. A review of studies that use capability-based variables, aggregated at the level of the system, to account for war leads to the conclusion that structural realism remains viable but requires elaboration to compete effectively with alternative theories. In particular, the highest priority for structural realism is the development of a rational choice-based theory of state behavior in response to system structure.

The Pragmatics of International History

Abstract: This review builds on a renewed interest in the history of relations among states and peoples among International Relations scholars. Disappointed by the relative unproductiveness of more formalistic modes of analysis, there is a return to the History of International Relations, a core subject in the curricula of European universities. Since the pathways to knowledge in history lead to representations of reality mediated through subjective interpretations, this review explores on what basis and by what logic we can accept or reject the validity of the proffered interpretations. It examines the “positivist dispute” that agitated German scholars during the last half of the 19th century and the first decades of the 20th and lives on today in the arguments among traditionalists and scientists in American International Relations. It also reports on the contemporary assault on the correspondence theory of truth and concludes with an exploration of pragmatic or useful truth and the need for intellectual conversation among discourses.

The Business of International Politics

Abstract: Recent years have brought renewed interest in the societal determinants of foreign policy and international relations. Whereas realist and liberal theorists each proceed from the assumption that foreign policy is the product of some version of the national interest, societal explanations depict the foreign policymaking process as dominated by the struggle among private interests. Among the more interesting studies in the latter vein are those that focus on the role of business. Recent works by Thomas Ferguson (1984), Jeffry Frieden (1989, 1988, 1987), Helen Milner (1988), and Sylvia Maxfield andJames Nolt (1990) have provided us with a more sophisticated understanding of why and how business interests insert themselves into the foreign policymaking process. What sets this new wave of research apart is that it dispenses with the notion that business constitutes a monolithic class. Instead, these works show that foreign policy issues often evoke serious cleavages among distinct business groups. These clashing interests give rise to conflict within and among nations over international issues. The most pervasive fault line divides nationalist from international business blocs. Nationalists consist of smaller, less competitive firms that depend on the domestic market for their sales and profits. Internationalist firms are typically larger, more globally competitive and engage heavily in trade and foreign investment. Nationalists and internationalists possess conflicting policy preferences in areas such as trade, exchanges rates, and foreign assistance. The recent literature on such divisions and their consequences for foreign policy and international relations can be dubbed the "business conflict school." The three books under review here belong to this emerging perspective and each succeeds in extending this research agenda in interesting directions. Ronald Cox, in Power and Profits: U.S. Policy in Central America, and David Gibbs, in The Political Economy of Third World Intervention: Mines, Money and U.S. Policy in the Congo Crisis, examine the influence of contending business factions on U.S. interventionism. Gregory Nowell's study, Mercantile States and the World Oil Cartel, 1900-1939, is even more

An Early Warning System for the United Nations: Internet or Not?

Abstract: Editor's Note: An ongoing discussion within international studies concerns the design of a system to provide early warning of a variety of international crises to the United Nations. In this Forum, Gavan Duffy, organizer and chair of a roundtable on the problems and prospects for early warning at the 35th Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, continues the debate on a proposal for an Internet-based early warning system. This system is designed to overcome fundamental problems arising from differing theoretical perspectives toward what constitutes crisis and disaster, especially with respect to political conflict situations. Several reactions to the proposal follow, along with a final rejoinder by Duffy himself. As Duffy notes in his rejoinder, expanding discussion on this policy issue is crucial, and the Forum itself is a means forfurthering the discussion. Anyone wishing to join in the debate over early warning or the Internet proposal itself should contact the participants: Gavan Duffy, gavan@mailbox.syredu; Ted Gurr, tgurr@umd.edu; Philip Schrodt schrodt@ukanaix. cc.ukans.edu; Gottfried Mayer-Kress, gmk@pegasos.ccsruiuc.edu; and Peter Brecke, peter brecke@inta.gatech. edu.

Directions and Debates in South Africa's First Post-Apartheid Decade

Abstract: *Because the first author serves as General Editor of the Macmillan/St. Martin's Presses Series on International Political Economy in which the Thede and Beaudet collection appears, evaluations of this volume represent the opinion of Alfred Nhema alone. Otherwise, this review is a joint effort. ? 1995 The Mershon Center at The Ohio State University. Published by Blackwell Publishers, 238 Main Street, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA, and 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK.

Great Men, Monumental History, and Not-So-Grand Theory: A Meta-Review of Henry Kissinger's Diplomacy

Abstract: Certainly it would be worth examining how the author became individualized in a culture like ours, what status he has been given, at what moment studies of authenticity and attribution began, in what kind of system of valorization the author was involved, at what point we began to recount the lives of authors rather than of heroes, and how this fundamental category of “the-man-and-his work criticism” began (Michel Foucault, 1984:101).

Politicians, Voters, and Trade

Abstract: In Democracy and International Trade: Britain, France and the United States, 1860-1990, Daniel Verdier develops a general theory for explaining how trade policy is generated in democratic states. Eschewing traditional approaches to trade policy formation, Verdier argues that the key to understanding trade politics in democratic countries is the voter. Voters count because it is they who ultimately determine the constraints under which politicians seek and hold office. Competitive elections not only force office-seeking politicians to search out and articulate voter preferences in order to construct winning electoral coalitions, they also constrain officeholding politicians once they have attained power. Politicians who renege on campaign promises risk being thrown out by angry voters in the next election. As a result, the electoral connection ensures that voter preferences about trade policy become embodied in the strategies and behavior of both officeholders and office seekers. In democracies, Verdier contends, 'voters are sovereign" (p. 294). Verdier's electoral delegation argument is both insightful and compelling. He argues that elections do not determine the specific content of trade policy, as is commonly thought, but rather the latitude with which officeholding politicians can formulate and pursue trade policy. When trade policy is central to building and maintaining a winning electoral coalition, politicians become highly constrained by voter preferences. Moreover, the need to maintain coalition unity forces politicians to articulate and pursue general policies (such as free trade) that reflect the interests of voters in broad economic classes, such as farmers, labor, or business. As trade policy becomes less salient to voters, however, the constraints on politicians loosen. This enables them to pursue particularistic policies that meet the demands of more narrowly defined economic interests, such as sector specific subsidies. Finally, when trade is highly salient to voters and becomes linked to an external security threat, the executive gains great autonomy to use trade policy as an instrument for pursuing national survival. In short, the nature, strength, and distribution of preferences within the electorate determines both the general content of trade policy and the basic form of trade politics. Thus, Verdier subsumes within a single framework models of trade politics based on class or party politics (Lipset and Rokkan, 1967), pressure politics (Schattschneider, 1935), and executive politics.* Verdier's argument is compelling because it focuses directly upon the distinctive feature of democracy-competitive elections-as key to understanding the policy process. It makes the critical-and all too often overlooked-point that politicians