Showing papers in "Perspectives on terrorism in 2014"

Say Terrorist, Think Insurgent: Labeling and Analyzing Contemporary Terrorist Actors

Abstract: Terrorist groups are commonly understood to be groups that carry out acts of terrorism, and their actions viewed as terrorist campaigns. Yet, recent events are a reminder that the activities of even the most violent terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda or the Islamic State extend beyond the use of terrorist tactics. These actors usually employ classic guerrilla tactics as well, and their overall strategy combines both violent and political means. Furthermore, these acts of political violence do not merely constitute isolated campaigns of terrorism, but are usually part of a broader conflict such as an insurgency or civil war. The purpose of the present article is twofold. The first is to offer some empirical evidence in support of our claim that most major contemporary terrorist groups also employ other, non-terrorist, modes of warfare, notably guerrilla tactics. In the second part, we offer our reflections of these findings for theory and policy. Our main recommendation is for governments to adopt an approach that separates the official labeling of these groups from the analysis of their origins, conduct, and threat potential. While official policy statements might continue to label actors involved in terrorism as terrorist groups, we argue that the policy analysis informing these governments' pronouncements and decisions should adopt greater nuance by regarding most of these actors as insurgent groups. Such an approach can help policy analysts adopt and employ a broader array of intellectual tools to understand the complex nature of the threat posed by these groups, and arrive at more adequate, comprehensive, and longer-term solutions to the problems they pose.

Survival of the Fittest: Why Terrorist Groups Endure

Abstract: Why do terrorist groups endure? This question is relevant to scholars and policy makers alike. In the past, this issue has not been addressed in a systematic fashion. Recent work investigates this question using data on transnational groups and finds that factors associated with the home country can influence the group’s endurance. Applying the theory of outbidding to terrorist group survival, we argue that strategic competition among groups predicts group duration. Using the Global Terrorism Database, we develop a dataset using the terrorist group as the unit of analysis to model the duration of group activity and thus include the largest sample of groups yet. Controlling for previous explanations of both group duration and terrorism, we find a robust effect for the impact that group competition has on terrorist group survival.

Who Are They and Why Do They Go? The Radicalization and Preparatory Processes of Dutch Jihadist Foreign Fighters

Abstract: How do European Muslim men and women become involved in a violent jihadist struggle abroad? After the sharp increase in the number of European jihadist foreign fighters in Syria since 2012, this has become a pressing question for both academics and policymakers. Concrete empirical examples of radicalisation processes and preparations for engaging in the violent jihad in Syria can help to increase our understanding of these processes. In this article we will discuss the main elements of five Dutch jihadist foreign fighters’ radicalisation and preparatory acts. This information is derived from interviews with persons who had been in the direct environment of these jihadists during their radicalisation phase and the time they were preparing their travel to Syria. The findings are brought together and presented in the form of two composite stories of fictional Dutch foreign fighters - ‘Daan’ and ‘Driss’ - that can be regarded as typical for a number of other Dutch cases.

Making 'Noise' Online: An Analysis of the Say No to Terror Online Campaign

Abstract: A consideration of terrorism as communication necessarily draws attention to the development of counter narratives as a strategy for interrupting the process by which individuals become radicalised towards violent extremism. As the Internet has become a critical medium for psychological warfare by terrorists, some attempts have been made to challenge terroristic narratives through online social marketing and public information campaigns that o�耀er alternative narratives to the terrorists’ online audiences. ‘Say No to Terror’ is one such campaign. �怀is article reports on a study that examined the master narratives in the ‘Say No to Terror’ online campaign and applied concepts of ‘noise’ and persuasion in order to assess whether the key elements of the ‘Say No to Terror’ campaign align with the application of “noise” as a counter strategy against terrorists’ appeal on the Internet. �怀e study found that while the master narratives of ‘Say No to Terror’ align with suggestions based on empirical research for the development of e�耀ective counter campaigns, the campaign does not meet the essential criteria for e�耀ective noise.

Perspectives on Counterterrorism: From Stovepipes to a Comprehensive Approach

Abstract: This article moves beyond the boundaries that limit counterterrorism discourse and practice to present a more comprehensive approach In a world where distinctions are blurring between internal and external security, international and domestic jurisdictions, and state and non-state actors, it is important to cast our eyes wide in developing an effective approach to counterterrorism that can apply across a broad variety of policy domains and can outlive the electoral horizon of individual governments A discussion of five approaches to counterterrorism leads to the identification of thirteen different models which, taken together, can point the way towards a comprehensive approach

The Modus Operandi of Jihadi Terrorists in Europe

Abstract: This article provides the most thorough overview yet of how jihadis have plotted terrorist attacks in Europe Drawing on a database of 122 incidents, we review trends in weapon types, attack types and target types in the period 1994–2013 The overall finding is that jihadi terrorism in Europe is becoming more discriminate in its targeting while attack types and weapons are becoming progressively more diverse The most likely scenarios in the coming three to five years are bomb attacks and armed assaults against sub-national entities, communities and individuals A majority of the terrorist attacks will be limited in scope, but mass-casualty terrorism cannot be excluded Foreign fighters from Syria are likely to influence the threat level in Europe, but we do not expect them to alter patterns in modus operandi dramatically

Defining and Distinguishing Secular and Religious Terrorism

Abstract: Religious terrorism is typically characterised as acts of unrestrained, irrational and indiscriminant violence, thus offering few if any policy options for counterterrorism measures. This assumption about religious terrorism stems from two challenges in the literature: disproportionate attention to apocalyptic terrorism, and a lack of distinction between religious terrorism and its secular counterpart. This article, therefore, aims to do four things: define and differentiate religiously motivated terrorism from traditional terrorism; investigate three goals of religious terrorism (fomenting the apocalypse, creating a religious government, and establishing a religiously pure state); consider the role of leadership and target selection of religious terrorists; and, finally, suggest a range of counterterrorism strategies based on these observations.

The Foreign Fighters' Threat : What History Can(not) Tell Us

Abstract: Methodological questions around the determination how many of the foreign fighters going to Syria are likely to engage in terrorism upon their return are discussed. Two approaches are used in this Research Note to assess the threat posed by Western foreign fighters in the past. These serve to answer two questions: how many of the former foreign fighters became involved in terrorist activity (approach 1) and how many of jihadist-inspired terrorists were former foreign fighters (approach 2)? The research is based on three studies (Afghanistan, Bosnia and Somalia) and the data are presented in an Appendix. A typology of foreign fighters is presented in the text itself.

Analysing terrorism from a systems thinking perspective

Abstract: Given the complexity of terrorism, solutions based on single factors are destined to fail. Systems thinking o"ers various tools for helping researchers and policy makers comprehend terrorism in its entirety. We have developed a semi-quantitative systems thinking approach for characterising relationships between variables critical to terrorism and their impact on the system as a whole. For a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying terrorism, we present a 16-variable model characterising the critical components of terrorism and perform a series of highly focused analyses. We show how to determine which variables are best suited for government intervention, describing in detail their e"ects on the key variable—the political in%uence of a terrorist network. We also o"er insights into how to elicit variables that destabilise and ultimately break down these networks. Because we clarify our novel approach with #ctional data, the primary importance of this paper lies in the new framework for reasoning that it provides.

Operation Pendennis: A case study of an Australian terrorist plot

Abstract: This Research Note article provides a case study of a major Australian terrorist investigation, code-named Operation Pendennis. Drawing primarily from publicly available court transcripts, this study seeks to expand upon the growing literature within terrorism studies which utilises primary source materials. Its aim is to provide a detailed overview of Operation Pendennis that might serve as a resource for other scholars. The work also aims to add to existing knowledge regarding how terrorists prepare their attacks and react when under surveillance. This is done by providing a descriptive account of two cells’ preparations for an act of terrorism, and their unsuccessful attempts to evade authorities.

German Right-Wing Terrorism in Historical Perspective. A First Quantitative Overview of the ‘Database on Terrorism in Germany (Right-Wing Extremism)’ – DTGrwx’ Project

Abstract: This article presents a first quantitative overview of the findings of a private research project, which is running since 2011. The project aims at establishing a comprehensive database of German right-wing terrorist actors (groups, individuals) since the Second World War. It assembles data on incidents in order to gather as much information as possible about respective tactics, strategies, target groups, biographical backgrounds, connections and ideological legitimizations. As a first report and analysis, this article provides a quantitative analysis of right-wing terrorism in Germany, based on data relating to average group size, main target groups, length of existence and main tactics.

Boko Haram Attacks in Nigeria and Neighbouring Countries: A Chronology of Attacks

Abstract: Boko Haram’s insurgency which pitted neighbour against neighbour, cost more than 4,000 lives, displaced close to half a million people, destroyed hundreds of schools and government buildings and devastated an already ravaged economy in the north-east of Nigeria, one of the country’s poorest regions.Within less than five years (2010 – 2014) the Nigerian Islamist terrorists organization Boko Haram (BH) has evolved into the most lethal of all salafist jihadist organisations. Originally directing its attacks mainly at security forces and government officials, BH’s campaign has expanded to include attacks on Christians, critical Muslim clerics, traditional leaders, suspected collaborators, UN offices, bars and girl schools. Its campaign of terrorism, ranges from targeting students at state (secular) schools to health workers involved in polio vaccination campaigns.

Discovering bin-Laden’s Replacement in al-Qaeda, using Social Network Analysis: A Methodological Investigation

Abstract: The removal of Osama bin-Laden created a leadership void within al-Qaeda. Despite the group’s autonomous cell structure, an authorative figure remains essential for promoting and disseminating al-Qaeda’s ideology. An appropriate replacement should exhibit traits comparable to bin-Laden and have similar positioning within the structure of the group. Using a media-based sample and social network analysis, this study attempts to uncover the most probable successor for bin-Laden by examining the dynamics within al-Qaeda. The results indicate how the differential embeddedness of al-Qaeda members affects social capital, which in turn provides insights for leadership potiential.

Boko Haram's International Reach

Abstract: Although most of Boko Haram’s terrorist activity is focused, for the moment, on Nigerian territory, this Research Note argues that it is already an important international jihadist organisation. !e watershed that marks Boko Haram’s passage from a purely Nigerian phenomenon to an international jihadist actor is its attack on the United Nations Headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, on August 26, 2011. !e bulk of BH’s membership, the indiscriminate and cruel characteristic of its attacks, the complexity of the Nigerian religious and ethnic context, the sheer weight of the Nigerian state in an instable neighborhood - Cameroun, Niger, Chad, Mali - and its proximity to the jihadist battle front in the Sahel convert it into an immediate and infectious regional threat.

Eco-Terrorism? Countering Dominant Narratives of Securitisation: a Critical, Quantitative History of the Earth Liberation Front (1996-2009)

Abstract: The Earth Liberation Front (ELF) has carried out acts of political violence and ‘economic sabotage’ characterized by a pattern of behaviour reflecting tactical and targeting selections, communications strategies, and geographic location. The movement’s attacks typically focus on the destruction of property located in ‘soft targets’ associated with commercial and residential construction, the automotive industry, and a variety of local, national and multinational business interests. These sites are routinely targeted through a variety of means ranging from graffiti to sabotage to arson. Geographically, the movement has focused its attacks in the United States and Mexico, and, to a limited extent, countries on the European, South American and Australian continents. The findings presented in this article were developed through a statistical analysis of the movement’s attack history as presented through its above-ground support network. This is discussed in critical contrast to assertions about the movement’s alleged terrorist behaviour found in most academic and government literature. This study seeks to present an incident-based historical analysis of the ELF that is not situated within a logic of securitization. In doing so, it challenges traditional scholarship based on statistical findings .

Terrorist Networks' Productivity and Durability: A Comparative Multi-level Analysis 36

Abstract: Terrorist networks, similar to the more traditional terrorist organizations, employ violence in order to promote political and social changes. By utilizing a unique dataset of 18 terrorist networks the current study contributes to the growing body of literature on terrorist networks by examining the factors that determine network productivity and durability. The findings illustrate how effective networks generally operate within supportive and homogeneous communities, tolerant of the violent struggle. The findings also suggest that while funding and operational knowledge/training are not strong predictors of operational success, they seem to be potential preconditions for the formation of the networks, and for a network to shift from the ideological radicalization stage into the operational/behavioral stage. Finally, when looking at the structural characteristics that differentiate successful from less successful networks, it seems that the most important elements are the ability of the successful networks to effectively balance between cohesiveness and flexibility while preserving their dynamic nature.

Should we be Scared of all Salafists in Europe

Abstract: European governments consider the Salafi movement to be primarily a security threat. Yet developments in the Dutch Salafi movement reveal that quietist and political Salafists distance themselves from coercion and violence in the European context and also respect democratic authority. The movement manifests itself in very different ways worldwide. A more nuanced and contextual approach is necessary in order to assess and interpret potential threats. The peaceful branch of the movement should be understood as orthodox in nature, with the accompanying social and societal problems, but not by definition be seen as a threat to the democratic rule of law.

Alliance Hubs: Focal Points in the International Terrorist Landscape

Abstract: International terrorist alliances pose a threat in that they provide opportunities for groups to bolster their operational effectiveness, range, and efficiency as well as enhance their legitimacy and stature. However, they remain rare because alliances expose partnering organizations to serious vulnerabilities, and terrorist organizations are ill-suited to forge these kinds of commitments. When alliances do occur, they tend to cluster around a small number of groups, termed alliance hubs, which demonstrate an aptitude for forging partnerships. The prevailing notion that terrorist groups with shared threats or ideologies will naturally gravitate toward hubs mischaracterizes the nature of relationships among these illicit, clandestine, and violent organizations and predicts that alliances should occur more frequently than they do, and that alliances should form where none exist. Rather than precipitating alliances, shared ideology and enemies act as identity features that guide partner selection. Hubs function as focal points by fulfilling organizational adaptation and learning needs for groups that lack self-reform capacity. This offers under-utilized opportunities to exploit and disrupt these relationships.

Deterring Terrorism: a New Strategy

Abstract: Terrorists are poor candidates for deterrence. �怀ey are dif�耀cult to deter because they are motivated by a wide variety of personal and strategic aims. �怀e diversity of these aims practically ensures that many terrorists will derive utility from their actions regardless of how governments respond. In fact, even opposite government responses tend to generate utility for terrorists due to the complexity of their incentive structure. To an extent, however, terrorism may still be deterred by dissuading terrorist supporters since they are critical for mounting large-scale terrorist campaigns. Compared to terrorists, their supporters are more deterrable due to the relative simplicity of their incentive structure. People generally support terrorists for a single reason—to achieve their political demands. Fortunately, a growing body of empirical research �耀nds that terrorism is a losing tactic for perpetrators to induce major concessions from governments. �怀e policy community can help to deter terrorism by teaching its supporters about the tactic’s politically counterproductive e�耀ects.

Bangladesh: an Emerging Centre for Terrorism in Asia

Abstract: This Research Note examines the political developments that have occurred in Bangladesh in 2013 and explores how these have fed into the rise of religious militancy The ongoing conflicts not only intensify the instability and schisms within the country, but also illustrate that there is a rise in religious militancy that the country can ill afford at this juncture Furthermore, it highlights how some members of the Bangladeshi diaspora in the United States and United Kingdom have been recruited by al-Qaeda and its affiliates to plot mass casualty attacks Significantly, it is argued that all these threads are tied together because of the murky role of Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JEI), which is Bangladesh’s largest religious political party A further deterioration of Bangladesh’s democracy and political stability could create additional space within which Islamist militants may be increasingly free to operate not just for domestic terrorist activity but for preparing internationals plots as well

Has Adam Gadahn Forsaken the Lawful Jihad for Anti-Americanism? A Case Study of Ideological Contradictions

Abstract: Despite his importance as a senior Al-Qaeda spokesman, no detailed examination exists of Adam Yahiye Gadahn’s employment of fiqh al-jihad—that branch of Islamic jurisprudence regulating the lawful waging of jihad—to condemn or condone violence committed in the name of Al-Qaeda. This article first provides a detailed exposition of Gadahn’s sharia-based critique of affiliates’ conduct deemed by him in violation of Islamic law and involving the commission of major sins. Second, Gadahn’s conception of fiqh al-jihad is contextualized and contrasted with the comprehensive fiqh al-jihad-based critiques produced by respected militant Islamist scholars. A key finding here is that Gadahn (unlike these scholars) illicitly truncates the application of fiqh al-jihad with the result that he demands sharia-compliance when criticizing intra-Islamist violence yet ignores sharia-compliance when targeting America and Americans. Third, reasons are considered for this incoherent application of fiqh al-jihad and attempted Islamic legalization of anti-American mass casualty terrorist attacks. Finally, the discussion concludes with implications for counter-Al-Qaeda strategy.

The Importance of Financing in Enabling and Sustaining the Conflict in Syria (and Beyond)

Abstract: The availability, sources, and distribution of funding are critical issues to consider when seeking to address an on-going conflict such as the one we are witnessing across Syria and Iraq. In the Syrian case, whilst funds from states such as Russia, Iran, the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Qatar support various elements, a key factor to consider in addressing extremist groups is funding provided by private donors, some of whom are attracted by the concept of ‘jihadi finance’, seeking the honour and reward of waging jihad by proxy. This article reviews the importance of financing for insurgent groups, focusing in particular on the highly influential enabling role played by private donor financing in the current conflict in Syria, as well as the sustaining role of the war economy as the conflict spreads. Finally, it considers whether, in its fourth year, this conflict can still be influenced by targeting sources of financing.

Evidence-Based Counterterrorism or Flying Blind? How to Understand and Achieve What Works

Abstract: Many counterterrorism efforts in last decades, and especially since 9/11, have been plagued with doubts as to whether or not they actually make us safer. Unfortunately, the terrorism research that is needed to better plan and evaluate counterterrorism efforts has suffered from both a lack of sufficient rigour and lack of influence on policy-making. This article reviews the state of terrorism research and evidence-based practice in counterterrorism, and the challenges to both. A framework is proposed for the kind of research that needs to be conducted in order to develop evidence-based counterterrorism programs as well as the subsequent evaluative research on existing programs as part of a wider quality improvement program. The argument is made that there is a need for a concrete infrastructure of evidence-based practice and quality improvement in counterterrorism to ensure the best outcomes for national security. The components of a full spectrum quality improvement program in counterterrorism are described. Insights are garnered from the field of medicine, which has recently delved full force into evidence-based practice and quality improvement.

Locating Cyberterrorism: How Terrorism Researchers Use and View the Cyber Lexicon

Abstract: This article reports on findings from a survey on the concept of cyberterrorism from researchers working in twenty-four countries across six continents. Our aim is to contribute to the definitional debate in this area by exploring the boundaries between cyberterrorism and potentially related terms. Focusing on two questions from our survey in particular, we ask: First, how does cyberterrorism relate to adjacent concepts such as hacktivism, cybercrime and cyberwar? And, second, how familiar, frequently used, and useful are these concepts amongst the global research community? Our findings include: First, high levels of familiarity with the terms cyberwarfare, information warfare and cybercrime. And, second, concerns over, and widespread avoidance of, other terms including cyber jihad and pure cyberterrorism. The article concludes by exploring the importance of these findings for definitional debates around cyberterrorism and terrorism more broadly, before outlining a number of suggestions for future research.

Securing the Sulu-Sulawesi Seas from Maritime Terrorism: a Troublesome Cooperation?

Abstract: The security of the Sulawesi-Sulu Seas is of great importance for the international seafaring community. As a result, lack of adequate cooperation in this area has raised some concerns over the safety and security of navigation in the waterways. This article focuses on Indonesia and the Philippines role in securing the waters and the behaviour of these two countries when it comes to cooperation. It investigates why they have joined a number of cooperation arrangements while rejecting others. Most scholarly works point at sovereignty concern as the main reason underpinning their decision. Rather than focusing solely on sovereignty infringements, this article argues that Indonesia’s and the Philippines’ decisions towards cooperation initiatives are informed by the calculation of (both the sovereignty and implementation) costs and benefits, and the level of their control over the cooperation outcomes.

Should we be Scared of all Salafists in Europe? A Dutch Case Study

Abstract: European governments consider the Salafi movement to be primarily a security threat. Yet developments in the Dutch Salafi movement reveal that quietist and political Salafists distance themselves from coercion and violence in the European context and also respect democratic authority. The movement manifests itself in very different ways worldwide. A more nuanced and contextual approach is necessary in order to assess and interpret potential threats. The peaceful branch of the movement should be understood as orthodox in nature, with the accompanying social and societal problems, but not by definition as a threat to the democratic rule of law.

A History of the Hofstadgroup

Abstract: This Research Note provides a chronological overview of the most important events that occurred during the 2002-2005 existence of the Dutch Hofstadgroup. This group is frequently cited as a leading example of the ‘homegrown’ jihadist threat that arose in Europe from 2004 onwards. Despite this status in the literature, a detailed and above all primary sources-based account of the main developments of this group has so far been missing. With this contribution, the authors hope to provide fellow researchers with a useful resource for their own work on the Hofstadgroup and homegrown jihadism more broadly.

An Exploratory Study on the Impact of Electoral Participation upon a Terrorist Group's Use of Violence in a Given Year

Abstract: Recent studies seeking to understand the determinants of terrorism tend to focus upon situational, rather than structural measures. Typically these studies examine the interaction of terrorist attacks and repressive state actions. However, we know very little about other situational measures that may impact upon a group’s scale of violent activity within a particular year. This preliminary study analyses terrorist attacks committed by both the Provisional IRA (PIRA) and ETA and the electoral performances of the groups’ political wings, Sinn Fein and Batasuna, from 1970 to 1998 and from 1978 to 2005 respectively. More specifically, this paper examines whether the nature and content of terrorist attacks differ in the build-up to that group’s political-wing participating in elections. In other words, this article is a preliminary study of the influence of electoral participation on attack frequency and target selection. Results suggest that PIRA significantly decreased their attacks in an election year and this had a positive impact upon Sinn Fein’s electoral performance. On the other hand, ETA significantly increased its attacks in an election year and this had no significant impact upon Batasuna’s electoral performance.

A Primer to the Sunni-Shia Conflict

Abstract: Which dispute is so resilient that it continues nearly 1,400 years after the original quarrel? It is the Sunni-Shiite dispute over the question who should succeed the Prophet Mohammed. The original struggle turns around the question if religio-political leadership should be passed on by bloodline (the Shiite imamate ) or election (the Sunni caliphate ). Today, this has become among some factions a fight over the monopoly to sacrifice and martyrdom, and it takes the form of a competition for political predominance in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran.