Showing papers in "Population Studies-a Journal of Demography in 1981"
164 citations
TL;DR: Controlling for a variety of socio-economic characteristics of currently married women aged 20–49, and using several analytical approaches, the current fertility of migrants was consistently found to be higher than their own earlier fertility and higher than tha...
Abstract: Reflecting a growing concern with high rates of urban growth in less developed countries, increasing attention focuses on the fertility of migrants to such places. The present study explores the relations between fertility, migration, and urbanization, using ‘own children’ data from the 1970 Census of Thailand. Information on ‘own children’ less than one year old is used to approximate fertility levels in the year before the census, and that on ‘own children’ aged 1–4 fertility levels during the four preceding years. Since migration was defined as a move to current residence between 1965 and 1970, the statistics on ‘own children’ less than five years old allow scrutiny of fertility during the period immediately before and after migration. Controlling for a variety of socio-economic characteristics of currently married women aged 20–49, and using several analytical approaches, the current fertility of migrants was consistently found to be higher than their own earlier fertility and higher than tha...
141 citations
114 citations
114 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, the "wealth flows theory" of fertility transition is applied to historical population change and several problems are identified and explained, and two distinct values of children are discussed: as a source of strength for protection, and as source of wealth gained from a situational advantage in families.
Abstract: The "wealth flows theory" of fertility transition is applied here to historical population change and several problems are identified and explained. 2 distinct values of children are discussed: as a source of strength for protection as a source of wealth gained from a situational advantage in families where there is segmentation by age sex marital status and relationships in work inputs and consumption. It is argued that the balance between the values derived from these 2 sources changes over time. Much of traditional culture is concerned with maintaining the situational balance. The transformation of the cultural superstructure and of the value of children is examined during a transition from a system of familial production to one where much work is allocated by an external labor market. Late marriage of women in Europe before the later decades of the 19th century is discussed and the conclusion is reached that this had little to do with the desire to control the ultimate size of the family. It is argued that slow declines in fertility before the major transition may arise from changes in the locus of fertility decision making and in greater importance being given to the dislike by women of too many pregnancies births and periods with very young children. Why investment in children is possible when no other form of investment can be undertaken is also discussed. The contrast between western family and demographic change with no preexisting models and those found in a situation where a global economy and society are coming into being is examined. It is argued that no explanation of social and economic change is valid which cannot explain the demographic changes of the last 100 years. (Authors)
73 citations
TL;DR: Evidence from reproductive histories of couples married between 1750 and 1 899 in a sample of 14 German villages strongly suggests that fecundity, as defined by the underlying level of natural fertility, significantly increased between the end of the eighteenth and the onset of the twentieth century.
Abstract: An examination of evidence from reproductive histories of couples married between 1750 and 1 899 in a sample of 14 German villages strongly suggests that fecundity, as defined by the underlying level of natural fertility, significantly increased between the end of the eighteenth and the onset of the twentieth century. An examination of the separate components which led to the increased fecundity are clearest with respect to an increase in fecundability. The evidence, although not entirely consistent, was also suggestive of a reduction in the non-susceptible period following birth. Little change appears to have occurred in terms of primary sterility. One factor which may have been related to the observed changes in fecundity is a marked decrease in the degree of seasonality of births during the same period. Evidence from other family reconstitution studies for German villages generally confirms the rise in underlying natural fertility observed for our sample. The extent to which these findings are...
41 citations
TL;DR: In each of the approximately 500 provinces of Europe the level of nuptiality increased between 1870 and 1960, and in most countries the differences among provinces diminished over the period, so that the countries were more homogeneous with respect to provincial nuptials in 1960 than they had been in 1870.
Abstract: This paper is a study of changes in nuptiality by province in Europe between 1870 and 1960: nuptiality is measured by Im a summary measure of the proportions married among women of childbearing age. In each of the approximately 500 provinces of Europe the level of nuptiality increased between 1870 and 1960. In addition, in most countries the differences among provinces diminished over the period, so that the countries were more homogeneous with respect to provincial nuptiality in 1960 than they had been in 1870. Despite this tendency to convergence, traditional regional differences, linked to a common regional history, were often maintained, though within a narrower range.
37 citations
TL;DR: It is found that women's earning capacity relative to men's has a particularly strong negative effect on marriage rates, and that the decline in first marriage rates during the 1970s was primarily attributable to the growing economic opportunities for women.
Abstract: An economic model of the decision to marry has been developed by Gary Becker and is now part of the 'new home economics'. From it one can deduce that the propensity to marry is a function of the relative earning capacities of men and women, the relative scarcity of unmarried persons of the opposite sex and real income. The effects of changes in these variables on the annual first marriage rates of men aged 16-19, 20-24 and 25-29 and women aged 16-19 and 20-24 respectively are estimated over the post-war period. It is found that women's earning capacity relative to men's has a particularly strong negative effect on marriage rates, and that the decline in first marriage rates during the 1970s was primarily attributable to the growing economic opportunities for women. As demographic studies have suggested, the relative numbers of bachelors and spinsters of particular ages ('marriage squeezes') also have a significant impact, and there is evidence of substitution in the ages of marriage partners in response to such 'squeezes'. The income elasticity of marriage is only found to be significant among men below age 25 and women below age 20, and it increases as we move down the age distribution. This suggests the 'liquidity constraints' influence the timing of marriage among young people. In sum, this economic model is able to account for over 90 per cent of the post-war variation in young persons' marriage rates.
35 citations
TL;DR: In this paper, a life-table approach is used to yield conception rates and birth probabilities by duration since last birth (for women without children, since marriage), parity, and fertility intention.
Abstract: The 1975 National Fertility Study provides an opportunity to gain fresh insight into the question of the effect of employment on fertility. Data on intentions regarding both childbearing and work are available for the same women from the 1970 NFS; month-by-month records of actual behaviour were obtained at the interview in 1975. A life-table approach is used in this analysis, yielding conception rates and birth probabilities by duration since last birth (for women without children, since marriage), parity, and fertility intention. Changes in intentions relating to the number as well as the timing of births are considered. The results reveal several distinct mechanisms linking work to childbearing. Generally, employment tended to depress both intended and unintended fertility. But at the same time, positive effects can be observed under certain specific circumstances.
23 citations
TL;DR: The Cuban experience strongly suggests that in this country public health and sanitary reforms and nutritional improvements were largely responsible for initial declines in mortality throughout the first half of the twentieth century, and the impact of these reforms and improved nutrition was greatly influenced by prevailing economic conditions.
Abstract: Few studies provide an insight into what factors contributed to declines in the mortality rates of developing countries before the Second World War In this paper, statistics on causes of death from Cuba, particularly Havana, are used to investigate what may have been some of the principal determinants of mortality decline in the developing world before the arrival of modern drugs and insecticides Trends in cause-specific mortality are examined in the light of Cuba's social, economic, medical and public health history The Cuban experience strongly suggests that in this country public health and sanitary reforms and nutritional improvements were largely responsible for initial declines in mortality throughout the first half of the twentieth century One important finding is that the impact of these reforms and improved nutrition was greatly influenced by prevailing economic conditions Periods of economic prosperity facilitated declines in mortality; but in times of adversity, the reverse occurred It appears that during prosperous periods the maintenance and expansion of public health and sanitary facilities were made possible by increased public and private revenues, and that individuals had access to a more abundant diet The severe economic crisis of the Great Depression had the opposite effect With the appearance of sulphonamides in the late 1930s, antibiotics, and residual insecticides and other specific measures at the end of the Second World War, the relevance of economic conditions as a determinant of mortality decline diminished Although this analysis points to the aforementioned trends, the Cuban experience also suggests that other factors enter into the process of declining mortality and that this phenomenon can only be explained as the result of the complex interplay of many forces
23 citations
TL;DR: This first attempt to use the original passenger manifests from immigrant ships entering U.S. ports to see what can be learned about emigration from the British Isles during the period of most rapid industrialization and urbanization between the Napoleonic Wars and the beginning of mass emigration in the late 1840s demonstrates that these original lists contain more social and demographic information about migrants than was ever published by the U.s. government.
Abstract: This is a first attempt to use the original passenger manifests from immigrant ships entering U.S. ports to see what can be learned about emigration from the British Isles during the period of most rapid industrialization and urbanization between the Napoleonic Wars and the beginning of mass emigration in the late 1840s. Based on lists compiled during the years 1827 to 1831, the article demonstrates that these original lists contain more social and demographic information about migrants than was ever published by the U.S. government and also that the official statistics that were published were incomplete and exaggerated the fish share in the immigration through U.S ports. The English immigration is shown to have been predominantly a family movement in 1831, but most migrants chose to emigrate at favourable moments in the life cycle. Occupations and countries with low incomes were not well represented among English migrants through U.S. ports. As early as 1831, the majority of men among the Engli...
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors take issue with the Easterlin model, both as regards the actual course of fertility and the ability of Easterlin's concept of relative incomes to explain the observed patterns.
Abstract: In the aftermath of World War II the United States found itself in a position of unexpected economic strength and confronting a resurgence in births quite beyond what demographers had come to consider reasonable for a developed country. It has taken nearly 30 years for fertility to become ‘reasonable’ again, and its interim course had seemed to call for exceptional efforts at interpretation. The best known and most respected of these efforts is Richard Easterlin's, which sees cohort fertility as directly related to cohort incomes in early adult life, indexed on parental incomes, and cohort incomes as inversely related to cohort sizes. Under some circumstances the mechanism is said to generate long swings in annual numbers of births. This paper takes issue with the Easterlin model, both as regards the actual course of fertility and the ability of Easterlin's concept of ‘relative incomes’ to explain the observed patterns. We find that cohort fertility behaviour has tended not to be stable throughou...
TL;DR: It is shown that considerably more prospective data are needed to prove decisively that the degree of bimodality depends primarily on sample heterogeneity; or to decide whether the strong negative skewness found in some logit-fitted curves is artifactual or real.
Abstract: Most statistics of postpartum amenorrhea are based on retrospective rather than prospective reporting and except when short (averaging less than 6 months) exhibit bimodality negative skewness and gross heaping on multiples of 6 months. The 2 best prospective series 1 representing moderately long and the other very long postpartum amenorrhea exhibit modest degrees of bimodality and negative skewness. Bimodality is plausibly explained in terms of sample heterogeneity that is a combination of lengths of amenorrhea of successful lactators which might be expected to be unimodal with the brief amenorrhea of nonlactators and of mother experiencing early infant deaths and sometimes of respondents experiencing pregnancy losses or confusing postpartum bleeding for genuine onset of menstruation. To cope with the problems of bimodality and heaping on multiples of 6 months Lesthaeghe and Page have used an ingenious logit regression amenorrhea approach. Logit-fitted curves exhibit positive skewness when the retrospective amenorrhea series is short or very long and negative skewness when the series is of intermediate length. For retrospective series averaging between 6 and 9 months the negative skewness is especially marked with a 2nd mode several months later than the mean. A key issue is whether this feature reflects a real phenomenon related to extreme sample heterogeneity or is an artifact of partially surpressed heaping. Hitherto in the construction of family building models postpartum anovulation has been conventionally represented by Barretts modified Pascal distribution. It is shown than when amenorrhea series are long averaging over a year this distribution generates excessive variances. A generalization of Barretts curve the negative binomial yields control over the variance as well as the mean but also unimodal positively skewed curves of amenorrhea that grossly underestimate the left tail of the distribution. A mixed geometric-negative binomial distribution is proposed which ensures bimodality avoids the deficit of short length and produces a much more moderate degree of positive skewness for series of intermediate length. The present analysis makes clear that considerably more prospective data are needed to prove decisively that the degree of bimodality depends primarily on sample heterogeneity; or to decide whether the strong negative skewness found in some logit-fitted curves is artifactual or real. Correspondingly more prospective data including information about the timing of infant deaths are a prerequisite to exploring how well mixed distributions can simulate bimodal distributions of amenorrhea. (Authors)
TL;DR: Component analysis showed that most of the differences between the total fertility rate of Australians and those of the other groups reflect the significantly higher marital fertility rates and proportions married among the foreign-born groups.
Abstract: In this paper the fertility patterns and differentials among various immigrant groups in Australia are examined. Official vital statistics for the period 1971–76 are used. Fertility ratios standardized by age and marital status suggest that the overall fertility of foreign-born women was higher in both 1971 and 1976; however, some evidence -of convergence towards an ‘Australian’ norm was found. Four distinct patterns of fertility were noted. In two of them, Arab and South European, marital fertility was substantially higher but non-marital fertility quite low. The North-West European pattern was closest to that of the native-born; however, in the East European pattern fertility was lowest. Component analysis showed that most of the differences between the total fertility rate of Australians and those of the other groups reflect the significantly higher marital fertility rates and proportions married among the foreign-born groups.
TL;DR: If the woman meant rounded years, but completed years were assumed for imputation, the resulting evidence of a recent decline could be either exaggerated or false, and the results have implications for other surveys in which the 'years ago' response is not an explicit option.
Abstract: In developing countries the collection of data regarding the birthdates of children is hindered by the inability of mothers to report accurately in a retrospective survey. The World Fertility Survey allows mothers to report the childs current age or the years since its birth. For analytical purposes the response must be translated into a birthdate. Because mothers may respond with either completed or rounded years the researchers must decide which interpretation was used by the respondent in giving the information. A mathematical model was used with World Fertility Survey data from Bangladesh and Indonesia to evaluate the consequences of an erroneous interpretation by the researchers. Analysis showed that the use of the age of the child instead of a birthdate had no serious impact on levels and trends of more than 5 years back. There were several percentage points difference between completed years and rounded years interpretations for the most recent 5 years. The ambiguity of the question on the Bangladesh survey should be avoided. If there is no evidence as to which interpretation provides the most accurate results it is recommended that rounded years be used instead of completed years. This would result in a too conservative estimate of declining fertility trends which is preferable to an exaggerated estimate.
TL;DR: This paper examined the social mobility-fertility hypothesis on the grounds that previous work particularly the Princeton studies contained serious methodological weaknesses which means that they did not provide an adequate test of the hypothesis.
Abstract: Reexamines the social mobility-fertility hypothesis on the grounds that previous work particularly the Princeton studies contained serious methodological weaknesses which means that they did not provide an adequate test of the hypothesis. When the approach of the Princeton studies was replicated no empirical support was found for the hypothesis but when the figures for nonmobile women by status and those for upwardly and downwardly mobile women by both origin and destination were disaggregated a quite different conclusion was supported. In short consistent and substantial support was found for the hypothesis. Social mobility status more successfully differentiates groups with different fertility patterns than does a single measure of current socioeconomic status. (Authors modified)
TL;DR: In this article, mortality levels in infancy and childhood are presented for a sample of countries in Africa Asia and Latin America in an attempt to fill the information gap of vital statistics in developing nations.
Abstract: It is well known that vital statistics in developing nations are deficient. In an attempt to fill the information gap new estimates of mortality levels in infancy and childhood are presented for a sample of countries in Africa Asia and Latin America. The technique used to generate these estimates requires information on child survivorship and some assumptions about the age pattern of mortality. A by-product of the application of the technique is the estimation of past mortality trends. These estimates are valid provided some restrictive assumptions about the functional form of the mortality trends holds true. (Authors)
TL;DR: Using statistics from the censuses of 1946 1953 1963 and 1971 and from vital registration changes in fertility in Sri Lanka as a whole and in its 19 administrative districts were examined.
Abstract: Using statistics from the censuses of 1946 1953 1963 and 1971 and from vital registration changes in fertility in Sri Lanka as a whole and in its 19 administrative districts were examined. For the whole island the level of fertility in 1953 was about the same as in 1946. However this apparent stability concealed quite substantial increases in fertility in a number of districts. It is argued that these were very probably caused by the eradication of malaria. Between 1953 and 1963 fertility declined somewhat in Sri Lanka as a whole. However this was due to structural changes rather than to any decline in marital fertility which apparently rose slightly. An analysis of the district figures indicated that this was due to increases in marital fertility among Ceylon Tamils and Ceylon Moors (and possibly Indian Tamils too). However it remains doubtful whether there were indeed genuine increases in marital fertility during this period or only improvements in the completeness of birth registration. Between 1963 and 1971 fertility declined still further in Sri Lanka and although increasing age at marriage was a very important factor there were unmistakable signs of declining marital fertility during this period. (authors)
TL;DR: The results of an enquiry undertaken by a multi-disciplinary team consisting of physicians and anthropologists in nine villages of Upper Volta report on general fertility, postpartum abstinence, intra-uterine and infant mortality and intervals between births.
Abstract: In this paper, the authors report the results of an enquiry undertaken by a multi-disciplinary team consisting of physicians and anthropologists in nine villages of Upper Volta. Three surveys were taken: in 1971, 1976 and 1977, and respondents were offered therapy for diseases associated with infertility. Statistics on general fertility, postpartum abstinence, intra-uterine and infant mortality and intervals between births were calculated, and the information is related to social and medical characteristics of the women surveyed.
TL;DR: The relation between the number of live births during a woman's reproductive life-cycle and her ages at those births and the timing patterns are very alike in the different samples examined, despite large differences between average family size, methods used to regulate fertility, and economic, social, and cultural characteristics in theDifferent populations.
Abstract: This paper reports an investigation of the relation between the number of live births during a woman's reproductive life-cycle and her ages at those births. Four samples of women from the United States and from the Philippines are used. The timing patterns of childbearing in these samples display several striking regularities. In all samples childbearing tends to occur in the centre of the fecund period irrespective of the number of children, so that the mean age at childbearing is essentially independent of final parity. In addition, the timing patterns are symmetric around the mean age at childbearing. Most important of all, the patterns are very alike in the different samples examined, despite large differences between average family size, methods used to regulate fertility, and economic, social, and cultural characteristics in the different populations.
TL;DR: A large body of hitherto unused data assembled for Japan is substantiated to substantiate that there was an evolution in the Japanese pre-modern demographic regime similar to that of Korea and Taiwan and to provide evidence for a tentative explanation of this evolutionary process.
Abstract: The concept of natural fertility has totally altered the view of longterm changes in demographic conditions. This has proved particularly the case in the area of historical demography. It has become widely appreciated that there are trends in natural fertility before the transition: typically natural fertility increases substantially. Possibly the most intriguing finding to emerge in this context is that at least in Europe and Asia nuptiality patterns and natural fertility evolved simultaneously adusting to each other. Evidence is presented in tables which suggests that at least for the European and Northern Asian cultural areas the components of fertility adjust to each other before the modern fertility transition began. Focus in this discussion is on a large body of hitherto unused data assembled for Japan in order to substantiate that there was an evolution in the Japanese pre-modern demographic regime similar to that of Korea and Taiwan and to provide evidence for a tentative explanation of this evolutionary process. The thrust of the argument is that in societies where descent is patrilineal the nuptiality of men adusts to the ability to acquire capital assets and perpetuation of family lines forces marriage ages of women to adjust to natural fertility and the risks of infant deaths. Overall the results lend substantial support to the proposition that nuptiality and marital fertility in Meiji Japan evolved with a pattern similar to that for Taiwan and Korea. The Tokugawa evidence the Yamanashi Census of 1879 and the police count population figures for 1908 all lend support to this assertion. A behavioral explanation is provided of how natural fertility is determined and evidence is produced in support of this hypothesis that as the standard of living the nutritional intake the medical care and public health measures of the Meiji Japanese improved families adjusted their sexual and breastfeeding practices so that as a result natural fertility increased substantially. As this occurred the age at 1st marriage for women rose and the proportion fecund among women married dropped. The evidence is largely indirect as it is primarily cross-sectional. The data concerning the natural rate of population increase support the thesis for it indicates that areas with high natural fertility and/or infant mortality rates despite the generally lower proportions married associated with these areas are characterized by a relatively high natural rate of population increase and vice versa. The evidence marshalled for the inter-war period lends substantial support to the general hypothesis involving the demographic adjustment mechanism and life cycle of the peasant family.
TL;DR: The results indicate that, for Costa Rica, the age at first birth is significantly related to the tempo of subsequent births, and that this association remains significant when socio-economic factors and marital status at the time of first birth are held constant.
Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between the age at first birth and the timing of subsequent fertility in Costa Rica and in four rural villages and two urban areas of Guatemala. The results indicate that, for Costa Rica, the age at first birth is significantly related to the tempo of subsequent births, and that this association, at least for the interval to second birth, remains significant when socio-economic factors and marital status at the time of first birth are held constant. While the results suggest that the age at first birth is related to timing of the second in the Guatemalan sample as well, the association is weaker and less consistent than in Costa Rica.
TL;DR: A Gompertz model is found to fit the family of curves that show the cumulative proportion giving birth within each interval closely, and provides an efficient summary of the otherwise cumbersome detail given in a life table.
Abstract: During recent years birth intervals have been analysed on a life table basis. This method retains both closed and open intervals, and so reflects behaviour that deliberately avoids the next birth entirely. When life tables are prepared separately for each birth order, markedly different patterns of movement toward the next birth can appear from one parity to the next. This is illustrated for Korean survey data, with historical trends given across marriage cohorts. A Gompertz model is found to fit the family of curves that show the cumulative proportion giving birth within each interval closely. Its three parameters have direct intuitive interpretations, one being equal to the parity progression ratio and the other two controlling the pace of childbearing before and after the point of peak activity within the interval. The model is useful for interpolation and projection, and provides an efficient summary of the otherwise cumbersome detail given in a life table. Testing against additional data set...
TL;DR: Both stochastic and deterministic models demonstrate that the techniques are comparable only when they are applied to non-recurrent events such as first marriage, and invalidates the use of the post partum current status distribution.
Abstract: Recent attention has focused on the length of the post partum period of infecundity in those societies where child-spacing has traditionally been achieved through post partum sexual abstinence or prolonged breast-feeding. The tabulation of proportions of women abstaining at interview by the age of the youngest child has been suggested as a technique free of problems of digital preference and memory lapse, while being otherwise equivalent to the distribution of the proportion of women abstaining by completed months since their last confinement, calculated from retrospectively-collected durations of abstinence. Both stochastic and deterministic models demonstrate that the techniques are comparable only when they are applied to non-recurrent events such as first marriage. Childbearing, and the relaxation of the proscription on post partum sexual intercourse, is a recurrent event, and the distribution of proportions of currently abstaining women according to the age of their youngest child is heavily...
TL;DR: It was concluded that age errors will be reduced by interviewing individuals directly rather than through a third party (usually the household head), more careful recruitment and training of enumerators and by the gradual spread of education and age awareness in rural areas.
Abstract: Ages of the same individual in two rounds of a rural survey in Sierra Leone spaced at intervals of six to ten months, were recorded by similar census-type methods, but using different enumerators. Substantial age differences were noted between the two surveys. Simple linear regression analysis was used to identify factors related to the interviewer, the interviewee and the method of interviewing that contributed to these age differences. It was concluded that age errors will be reduced by interviewing individuals directly rather than through a third party (usually the household head), more careful recruitment and training of enumerators and by the gradual spread of education and age awareness in rural areas.
Journal Article•
TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examined recent mortality trends in Council of Europe member countries in relation to changes in disease patterns, and analyzed variations in life span according to sex age group region and cause of death.
Abstract: The authors examine recent mortality trends in Council of Europe member countries in relation to changes in disease patterns. Variations in life span are analyzed according to sex age group region and cause of death. Tabular data for member countries are included (ANNOTATION)