Showing papers in "Population Studies-a Journal of Demography in 1982"

Inequality of income, illiteracy and medical care as determinants of infant mortality in underdeveloped countries.

Abstract: The primary purpose of the paper is to explain the differences in infant mortality rates for a sample of 46 underdeveloped countries. The study differs from earlier research in this field in the following respects. First, an attempt is made to include explanatory variables which have some bearing upon policy discussions. Secondly, considerable attention is devoted to the correct specification of the regression equation. Thirdly, an attempt is made to assess the sensitivity of the estimates to changes in (i) the composition of the sample and (ii) the observations on infant mortality. Finally, the data employed in the study appear to be somewhat less inaccurate than the figures which have been used elsewhere. The most satisfactory empirical results are obtained from a logarithmic model, in which the illiteracy rate for women (I), nurses per head of population (N), physicians per head (P), and the coefficient of variation (V) — a measure of inequality of incomes — appear as explanatory variables. Th...

Perspectives on family and fertility in developing countries.

Abstract: Two aspects of the family in relation to fertility in developing countries are discussed: set stratification within the family and extended family networks. As both these are central to J. C. Caldwell's theory of fertility transition, the paper is structured as a critique of his position. Drawing on examples and data from Asia, it is argued that the causal significance of sex stratification for fertility lies in the economic risks it imposes on women, deriving from their dependence on men, rather than, as Caldwell suggests, in the disproportionate gain that men derive from their dominant position within families. While Caldwell and others associate strong extended family networks of mutual obligation and support with persistent high fertility, it is argued here that such systems should, instead, facilitate fertility decline. Close-knit and strong kin networks can be viewed as alternatives to children as sources of insurance, and may facilitate fertility decline by preventing children from becomin...

Multi-state analysis of marital status life tables: theory and application.

Abstract: A multi-state life table, also known as a multi-dimensional or an increment-decrement life-table, is a generalization of the conventional life table. Members of a birth cohort are followed as they age, and move between various states of life. In this paper, the mathematical theory of multi-state life table construction is reviewed. It is shown that the mathematics becomes simple if the matrix approach, initiated by Rogers for the design of multi-regional life tables, is adopted. The theory is used to construct a multi-state nuptiality table for Belgium. An innovative feature of multi-state analysis is that the life tables obtained for each of the marital states are interrelated, since an individual leaving a particular status enters another which eventually may be left again. Life table functions not only depend on age but also on current and/or previous marital status. In the paper it is shown how the patterns of marital change, experienced by Belgian women as they age, differ with their marital...

Differential infant and child mortality in Costa Rica: 1968–1973

Abstract: In this paper the authors attempt to analyse the correlates of differences in infant and child mortality in Costa Rica for the period 1968–73. One approach uses small geographical units (cantons) as the unit for multivariate analysis, employing both single and simultaneous equation models. A second multivariate approach uses individual level statistics along with a specially constructed dependent variable. Costa Rica is studied because of an interest in differential child mortality during rapid fertility decline. The period is related to the use of the Census of 1973 as a primary source of data. Among the major findings are a strong favourable effect of provision of medical services on child mortality for small geographical areas and a strong effect of ambient infant mortality (influenced by medical and public health factors) on childhood mortality in the micro-analysis. Education of women remains important at both levels of analysis. Sanitation and level of socio-economic well-being have a weake...

A simple equation for estimating the expectation of life at old ages.

Abstract: There is much direct and indirect evidence that in a number of populations the ages of older persons tend to be exaggerated, both when reported in censuses and in records of deaths. This results in overestimated expectations of life at old ages. The bias may be corrected by estimating the expectation of life at age a, e(a), from the mortality rate and growth rate at age a and above, M(a+) and r(a+), using the equation developed in this paper: 1/e(a) = M(a+) exp (β . r(a+). M(a+)−α). For a ⩾, 65, α = 1.4 and β = 0.0951 have been chosen. The value of the equation rests on the following: since ages of older persons tend to be exaggerated, there may be an age a such that most age transfer occurs above that age, and age transfer across the age is small or cancels, so that reasonably accurate values of M(a+) and r(a +) can be obtained, even though ages are badly reported above a. The analysis of artificial data on Gompertzian stable popultions aged over 50 and actual statistics for some selected popula...

Recent course of fertility in Western Europe.

Abstract: An examination of recent fertility movements in 15 industrialized countries for the period 1950-1981 shows that in all of them fertility has tended to fall since 1965 and that there has been a tendency for it to decline to a level never previously observed in peacetime. In countries with the lowest fertility there have recently been some signs of stabilization. Changes in the distribution of ages at maternity have reinforced this trend; mean completed family size has been affected less. The authors have used weighted averages to calculate monthly fertility rates in an endeavor to pinpoint turning points more precisely. Such indices may also be used to describe seasonal movements in fertility. Data is presented in tables and graphs. (authors modified)

Household composition, extended kinship and reproduction in Taiwan: 1973-1980.

Abstract: There has been a decrease in the proportion of young couples beginning married life in Taiwan living with the husbands parents and the period of coresidence has become shorter for members of recent cohorts. Nevertheless a large majority of couples still do begin married life living with the husbands parents and most parents live with at least 1 married son. Couples who do not live with the parents are usually linked to them by visiting and remittances. The persistence of traditional family forms is greater than expected in view of the very rapid pace of other social and economic changes and the almost universal practice of modern contraception. Traditional familial forms are especially prevalent among rural farm and less educated strata. The longer the period of extended coresidence the higher is desired and actual family size and the smaller the proportion using contraception for spacing. Data used is from the Taiwan KAP-V fertility survey based on a probability sample with 3816 respondents of all married couples in which the wife was between 20 and 39 years old in 1980. (authors modified)

Advances in the P/F ratio method for the analysis of birth histories.

Abstract: 1 of the most frequently used indirect techniques for deriving estimates of recent fertility from simple questions in censuses and surveys is the P/F ratio method. Availability of detailed birth history data as in the World Fertility Survey and applications of the P/F procedure as a diagnostic tool in the evaluation of quality of data have led to simplifications and extensions of the original method. This analysis illustrates that when complete maternal histories are available the P/F procedure can be simplified and made more powerful by calculation of P/F values from cohort-period fertility rates and use of 2 further indexing variables namely duration since 1st marriage and duration since 1st birth in addition to age. More generally the paper indicates that a set of P/F values is only 1 of a battery of measures which aid in the analysis of trends and errors in data from maternity histories. Illustrative examples are given from various analyses of World Fertility Survey data. (authors)

Infant mortality estimates based on the 1976 Nepal fertility survey

Abstract: Infant mortality trends based on the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey are estimated in two ways, directly from maternity histories and indirectly from child-survivorship data. The indirect estimates are sensitive to choice of standard life table; hence the direct estimates based on maternity histories are preferred. Direct estimates indicate that infant mortality declined from about 182 deaths per thousand live births in the early 1960s to about 156 in the early 1970s. High sex ratios at birth before 1960 suggest that infant mortality was substantially under-reported at that time. Differential infant mortality is estimated by mother's age at childbirth, birth order, length of previous birth interval, sex of infant, region, urban-rural residence, father's literacy, and father's education.

Breast-feeding in Central Java.

Abstract: Earlier studies have documented long periods of breast feeding in Central Java accompanied by long periods of sexual abstinence. Information on breast feeding collected prospectively in rural Central Java between 1976 and 1978 is analyzed by proportional hazards regression techniques. Only age at confinement and education enter the final model as explanatory variables for the duration of breast feeding. A mechanism of weaning is identified whereby an initial stage of breast feeding is protected by sexual abstinence while weaning itself is ultimately precipitated by another pregnancy. The initial period of sexual abstinence is not rigorously observed by women with at least completed primary schooling although there is evidence to suggest that some have replaced sexual abstinence with contraception. The prohibition against weaning before the child has reached 12 Javanese months is almost universally observed by mothers with less than completed primary schooling and is also practiced to a lesser extent by more educated women. 66% of the women weaned while pregnant indicating that the sexual prohibition is not absolute. (authors modified)

The transformation of Korean child-spacing practices.

Abstract: In this paper the trend in child-spacing in Korea from the 1950s to the 1970s is examined by using a life-table approach and statistics from three separate surveys Marked increases occurred in the pace of fertility at the lower parities, at the same time there were rapid declines in the pace of fertility at higher parities A variety of factors brought about this mixture of trends For example, the shortening of the first birth interval is partly the result of increases in the number of pre-marital pregnancies; whereas, the use of contraception lengthened intervals between births of fourth and higher orders These trends are examined for a variety of sub-groups within Korea, and additional explanations for the changes documented are explored

The Population History of England 1541-1871. A Reconstruction.

Abstract: The Population History of England, 1541-1871 A Reconstruction E.A. Wrigley and R.S. Schofield \"This book is one of the most important works to appear in any branch of historical studies in many years.\" Charles Tilly This is the first national population history to provide basic demographic information over a period of 300 years in any country. Indispensable for historians, sociologists, population experts, and scholars of developing countries. Studies in Social and Demographic History 704 pp. 147 maps and figures 173 tables $60.00

Child mortality and reproductive behaviour in German village populations in the past: A micro-level analysis of the replacement effect

Abstract: Reproductive histories of couples married during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in a sample of 14 German villages are analysed in order to answer several questions regarding the relationship between child mortality and reproductive behaviour. An effort is made through selection of cases and use of multiple classification analysis to eliminate or control non-volitional or otherwise confounding influences on the relationship between a couple's experience with child mortality and their fertility. The results do not provide a decisive answer to the question of whether, under a regime of otherwise presumed natural fertility, previous experience of child mortality affected subsequent reproductive behaviour. The evidence was much clearer in indicating that behaviour consistent with replacement efforts emerged or strengthened as family limitation spread. Finally, the results indicated that though it was not necessary for overall child mortality to decline before family limitation practices were ...

Economic utility of children and fertility in rural India

Abstract: In this study the relationship between fertility and the economic utility of children is investigated by using survey data gathered in 1975–6 from an agricultural village in Western India. Fertility measures included both attitudinal variables as well as number of children and an index of contraceptive behaviour; economic utility was gauged through several measures concerning labour contributions of young children, transfers from older, non-resident children and contributions towards old-age security. The analysis indicates that no obvious association exists between fertility and economic utility. Specifically, variation in the labour contributed by children had no appreciable effect upon villagers' attitudes towards fertility, nor was it connected to actual family size. Old-age security, whether measured by attitudes of younger men or by facts relating to old men, was similarly unrelated to fertility. It is argued that the respondents have become much more aware of the costs of children (especia...

Anatomy of a fertility decline: Peninsular Malaysia, 1950-1976.

Abstract: Data from a retrospective survey are used to analyse trends in the fertility of Peninsular Malaysia's three main ethnic groups, Malays, Chinese and Indians. Though imperfect, these data allow a comparison of the fertility experience of birth cohorts of women who were in their childbearing years during two decades of rapid social change. Two components of the birth interval, post-partum amenorrhoea and the menstruating interval, and proximate determinants of these two components, breast-feeding and contraceptive use, are considered. Ethnic differences in the way these components have changed over time are more pronounced than differences in completed fertility, primarily because Malay women breast-fed longer then women of Chinese origin, while the latter were more likely to use modern contraceptives.

The sources of error in Brass's method for estimating child survival: the case of Bangladesh.

Abstract: Brass's method for estimating child mortality is based on an ingeniously simplified model. However, it frequently leads to values of q(x) that are not consistent with each other. This is most obvious for estimates of q(1). This paper examines the extent to which such inconsistencies are caused by simplifications in the model. Three assumptions are relaxed by adjusting for differences in infant mortality by birth order, taking account of annual fluctuations in mortality, and using a different age pattern of fertility for each cohort. These adjustments are applied to data from the 1974 Bangladesh Retrospective Survey of Fertility and Mortality and the 1975 Bangladesh Fertility Survey in which additional data from the Cholera Research Laboratory are used. The resulting estimates are more consistent both internally and with estimates from other surveys and by other procedures.

Evidence of age exaggeration in demographic estimates for Pakistan.

Abstract: Own-children fertility estimates based on Pakistans 1973 Housing Economic and Demographic Survey implausibly indicate a sharp rise in marital fertility at younger reproductive ages and a sharp decline at older reproductive ages between 1962-6 and 1967-71. Age-specific death rates based on Pakistans 1962-5 Population Growth Estimation Experiment are too high below the age of minimum mortality and too low above this age compared with fitted model age patterns of mortality. P/F ratio estimates of age-specific birth rates derived from Pakistans 1971 Population Growth Survey are too low below the age of peak fertility and too high above this age compared with parallel estimates derived from the 1975 Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS). These changes and discrepancies are plausibly explained by a pattern of age exaggeration that increases with age in all the above mentioned data sets except the PFS in which the quality of age data appears to be relatively good. In all likelihood the changes and discrepancies are either not real or much smaller than estimated. A noteworthy by-product of the analysis is that the common procedure of fitting a stable population from life expectancy and the proportion of population below age 35 does not work well in Pakistan. (authors)

The relevance of the developing countries to demographic transition theory: further lessons from the Hungarian experience.

Abstract: In this paper variations in marital fertility and nuptiality in 48 Hungarian provinces over the period 1880–1910 are investigated in order to test competing hypotheses about the soda-economic and cultural sources of the European demographic transition. Models are contructed to compare three explanations: (1) the conventional hypothesis of demographic transition emphasizing infant mortality, urbanization, education and modernization; (2) the recent re-interpretation including cultural and ethnic factors; and (3) an hypothesis drawn from the literature on contemporary demographic transitions which emphasizes poverty and economic inequality. These three models are tested and compared through multivariate statistical analysis, using statistics for four census periods. The results show that neither the conventional model nor the revision explains which cultural and ethnic factors adequately explain differentials and changes in Hungarian fertility during the period of transition. The consideration of e...

The decline of fertility in Costa Rica: literacy, modernization and family planning.

Abstract: At mid-century when Costa Rica's birth rate was among the world's highest, marked fertility differences were recorded among the country's 68 cantons. Literacy levels and sex ratios largely account for the early differences, which were due to variations both in age at marriage and in marital fertility. Dramatic fertility declines were initiated in the 1960s in cantons in which literacy was higher and overall modernization more advanced. In a second phase, however, fertility in the less modernized cantons declined rapidly, especially where rates of family planning acceptance were high. Costa Rica's unusually high literacy early in the century and more recent gains in post-primary education are suggested as factors which precipitated the initial decline in fertility, with the national family planning programme serving to diffuse fertility control to less developed regions of the country.

Ways in which childbearing affects women's employment: evidence from the U. S. 1975 national fertility study.

Abstract: The influence of fertility on the proportions working among white married women in the U.S. from 1970 to 1975 is analysed by using longitudinal data from the National Fertility Studies. The intention to have another child is found to have a negative effect independently of the impact of age of youngest child and parity. There is also evidence that childbearing fosters work, particularly at the extremes of the parity distribution. Further investigation of the interaction between the two activities reveals that whereas most childless women work and then have a birth, once childbearing is completed fewer women take advantage of the renewed opportunity to work.

Fertility, union status and partners in the WFS Guyana and Jamaica Surveys, 1975-1976.

Abstract: Several approaches are applied in this analysis of fertility differentials between different union status and according to number of partnerships and number of partnership dissolutions. The data were obtained from the 1975 Guyana Fertility Survey and the 1975-1976 Jamaica Fertility Survey. In Jamaica the influence of partnership instability on fertility appears to be strong and positive below age 30 weakly positive at age 30-34 rather more positive at age 35-39 and weakly positive above age 39. The Jamaican data by number of partners support the idea of voluntary restriction among those with fewer dissolutions suggesting a higher tempo of reproduction among women with 2 or more partners than among those with just one in the 2 or 3 most recent age groups. It seems fairly clear that those with fewer dissolutions are averaging fewer births though an examination of their social characteristics may reveal differences that imply that there is still a negative relationship between increasing dissolutions and fertility among certain major status groups i.e. those with high desired family size or low implementation of contraception. Overall the case for concluding that partnership instability has ceased to depress fertility in Jamaica seems fairly well established. For Guyana there appears to be a somewhat weaker association between number of dissolutions and fertility. The relationship is strong in only 2 age groups i.e. the 15-19 and 20-24 year olds. In 3 age groups 25-29 40-44 and 45-49 the relationship approaches a J-shaped group where women with zero dissolutions have higher fertility than those with 1 dissolution and those with 2 or more dissolved partnerships have highest fertility of all. The exposure index data for Guyana are broadly speaking consistent with those for Jamaica again indicating that those with more partnership dissolutions are achieving higher fertility with the same aggregate amount of exposure. It is concluded that the relationship between number of partnerships and fertility is that increasingly a higher number of partners is associated with higher fertility but with about the same weighted exposure score. This suggests that women with fewer partners are doing more to restrict their fertility.

The Components of Population Change in Nineteenth-century South-east Asia: Village Data from the Philippines

Abstract: Most analysis of contemporary demographic patterns in developing countries suffers from the lack of any useful basis for historical comparison- from the absence of contextual information regarding the movements of the same variables at earlier points in time. And since modern analyses of fertility trends in developing countries almost always describe a period late in the process of rapid economic change, relative to the encroachment of the global economic system on indigenous economies (which in many instances began as early as the nineteenth century), we are often without true baseline information on indigenous demographic processes. The importance of pushing time series of demographic observation backward into the past has been demonstrated amply by the work of the last several decades in European historical demography. The simple concept of the demographic transition has been revised, enriched, and finally transformed into useful behavioural models by painstaking historical reconstruction of individual histories at the local level.1 But despite these advances, the range of cultures and subsistence systems on which our theories of demographic change rest remains extremely narrow outside of the rich body of European and Japanese aggregative and reconstitution studies. There is a real need for historical demographic reconstruction at both aggregate and micro-levels in additional non-western settings. This paper is derived from a continuing research programme in Philippine historical demography that has three long-term goals: to establish a comparative basis for studies of contemporary demographic changes in the Philippines; to answer certain questions of particular interest in the setting of colonial and post-colonial South-east Asia; and to diversify the empirical base of demographic transition theory. Our focus is on the interpretation of aggregate patterns and trends for one rural Philippine locality during the nineteenth century - the pueblo of Nagcarlan. Data from Nagcarlan and similar data for the province and colony surrounding it are juxtaposed, as is limited information from elsewhere in the South-east Asian region. This allows us to sketch the prevailing demography of the region and the place of Nagcarlan as a community-level microcosm of that demographic regime. Only aggregate results are presented in this paper; our micro-level findings will be presented separately. Since a community-level reconstruction of population change has never been attempted with the data explored here, we are concerned equally with the substance of the demographic regime during the nineteenth century and with the adequacy of the data base for describing it. At several points in the analysis more than one method of estimation is used in order to establish the plausibility and consistency of the results. * Peter C. Smith is a Research Associate at the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii. Shui-Meng