Showing papers in "Review of Income and Wealth in 1970"

U.S. Real Product and Real Factor Input, 1929-1967

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to provide a conceptual basis for separating social product and social factor input accounts into price and quantity components. Despite the essential similarity between concepts of real product and real factor input, the measurement of social factor outlay in constant prices is not well established in social accounting practice. Production accounts are constructed for the United States in current and constant prices, including social product and social factor outlay, for the period 1929–1967. The resulting estimates are applied to the measurement of total factor productivity and the study of the responsiveness of product and factor intensities to price changes.

Prim i: a model of the price and income distribution mechanism of an open economy

Abstract: PRIM I is a numerical model which has been extensively used as a basis for an income policy in Norway in recent years. It is a static, cost-push, input-output model. Wage rates, agricultural prices, productivities and world market prices are treated as exogenous variables, and the model derives short-term changes in income shares and in the national price level from changes in these exogenous variables. A key feature of the model is a distinction between “exposed industries” which are subject to strong foreign price competition, and “sheltered industries” which are relatively free of such competition. These two groups of industries are found to react with very different pricing policies in response to increases in costs; furthermore, possibly for technological reasons, the export industries have greater scope than the majority of the sheltered industries for compensating cost increases through productivity gains. These two facts are shown to have important implications for a price and income policy. It is demonstrated, i.a. that the goal of a stable national price level is, in general, inconsistent with the maintenance of stable income shares when exchange rates are kept constant.

Income distribution and economic growth in puerto rico, argentina, and mexico*

Abstract: Has economic growth in developing countries led to increasing inequality in the size distribution of income? Following a brief review of the advantages and deficiencies of several traditional measures of income distribution, the author examines the evidence from Puerto Rico, Argentina, and Mexico in recent years. The findings suggest that the income shares received by the lower half and by the top 5 per cent of families in Puerto Rico and Mexico have declined from 1950 to 1963, while the income shares received by the bottom nine deciles of families in Argentina have also fallen during the same period. The rising Gini ratio and standard deviation of the logs of income, both indicating greater inequality, contrast with a declining coefficient of variation for all three countries. More detailed sectoral distributions for each year reveal greater equality within agriculture than non-agriculture for Puerto Rico and Mexico, while Argentina and the United States demonstrate less equality within agriculture. The trends in the countrywide distributions are consistent with the observation of the increasing differential between sectors, the increasing weight of the more unequal sector, and the increasing level of inequality within both sectors. These trends, however, are qualified by the particular set of measures which are applied to the data. Finally, the author speculates on possible explainations for these trends in terms of changes in the crop and industry mix.

A positive and a normative theory of income distribution

Abstract: A positive theory of income distribution based on assumptions concerning the supply of and demand for each type of productive service is presented. The demand function of the organizers of production may be derived from the maximization of profits with the income scale and the production function as restrictions. A normative theory based on the maximization of a social utility or welfare function is also considered. In the normative theory, production functions and balance equations (some representing compartmentalization of factor markets) are introduced as restrictions and again an income scale results, this time maximizing social welfare. Empirical testing is also considered. The positive theory was developed in part to take into consideration the fact that personal income distributions can reasonably well be described by log normal distributions, and that skill parameters are often normally distributed. Limited testing of the influence of wealth, intelligence, education, and sex suggest that these account for only a small part of the variance in the income distribution. This suggests the need for further research.

Income distribution theory

Abstract: This paper introduces two special issues of the Review devoted to income distribution theory and its empirical implementation. Most of the papers that will appear in these two issues were prepared for a special session on income distribution held during the Eleventh General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, held at Nathanya, Israel, in August 1969. The present issue contains theoretical papers; the following one will present more empirical work. This introductory paper is intended to indicate the relationships among the papers that follow, and to suggest possible future directions for work in this area. In the latter connection, the author discusses the use of microanalytic models applied to microdata sets dealing with individuals and households.

The social significance of income distribution statistics

Abstract: In both political discussions and scientific literature the income distribution has come to occupy a central position for the consideration of social welfare and economic equalization. It has been assumed that an individual's income reflects his consumption opportunities and therefore his standard of living or economic welfare. The thesis of this paper is, however, that there are reasons for being quite pessimistic about drawing meaningful conclusions from income distribution data. As illustrated by the use of Swedish data, the distribution of income gives an extremely incomplete picture of the distribution of consumption for a wide variety of definitional and statistical reasons. The distribution of consumption, furthermore, cannot be transformed into a corresponding distribution of welfare, since there is no well defined concept of welfare. The treatment of public consumption in empirical analysis of the distribution of welfare also raises problems. The paper closes with the presentation of the conceptual basis for an alternative to the traditional method of analyzing the distribution of income.

Accrued capital gains, personal income and saving in the united states, 1948–1964

Abstract: Capital gains are an important source of personal income in the United States but they are not included in the national accounts or the official estimate of personal income and saving Individuals report their realized gains for tax purposes but the economic theorist would include both realized and accrued gains in income National income theorists continue to debate whether capital gains should be included in income but, because of the many conceptual and statistical problems involved in estimating capital gains, no satisfactory estimates have been developed Consequently, the debate has stayed mainly at the theoretical level This paper deals with the methodology of estimating accrued capital gains A simple analytical model is developed to estimate capital gains from data on market value and net acquisitions of an asset but the model can be adapted to incorporate asset prices directly It is shown that the methods used for estimating accrued gains in the past are special cases of the model proposed in the paper The model is then used for estimating gains accruing to individuals in the United States on their holdings of corporate stock, real estate and livestock during 1948–1964 During this period accrued gains have amounted to roughly five times the realized gains reported for tax purposes; corporate stock and real estate are the most important sources of capital gains and corporate stock accounts for almost two-thirds of all accrued gains The paper goes on to examine the implications of these estimates for the existing series on personal income and saving in the United States The inclusion of accrued gains would increase the variance in the official estimates but personal saving is affected more than personal income The paper concludes with an evaluation of these results and some suggestions for further research

Income and wage distributions part i: a survey of the literature

Abstract: This paper, the first of a two-part series, surveys the literature in the field of income and wage distributions. The author divides work in this area into two schools: the theoretic-statistical school, and the socio-logical school. Within each of these groups he reviews leading contributions. He then examines the work of Tinbergen, which, the author feels, fits into neither of the older classifications; rather, Tinbergen approaches the distribution of income as a problem in analyzing the supply of and demand for various attributes, such as intelligence, physical strength, ability to get along with people, etc. In conclusion, the author points out areas which he feels need further work. The paper is based upon the author's book in Danish, Indkomst-og lonfordelinger.

A naive history of individual incomes in wisconsin, 1947–1959

Abstract: The paper develops a descriptive history of the changing level and sources of income of the male population of Wisconsin from 1947 to 1959, as a preliminary step in building a model of income determination. The history is based on data from a one percent sample of the taxpaying population of Wisconsin from 1947 to 1959. Analysis of income sources received by male birth cohorts is followed by summary data on individual income variation. Changes in earnings of birth cohorts appear to be determined by changes in labor force participation, general productivity increases, and acquisition of skills. Education, as reflected in occupational status, appears to affect the initial level and lifetime profile of earnings; however, education has played a changing role in the dynamics of earnings. Movements in non-earned income appear to be determined by rising real yields on capital, accumulation of wealth, and possibly by asset conversion and selective migration and mortality favoring wealth holders. Cohort asset accumulation for the period seems to have been determined by the growth rate of earnings, life cycle contingencies, and the pattern of asset prices and yields during the period. Analysis of individuals’ incomes over the period reveals great heterogeneity of experience of individuals within birth cohorts and within occupations. This suggests that study of micro units is necessary to obtain behavioral information obscured in aggregate cohort data.

Redistribution of income—notes on some problems and puzzles

Abstract: There are both major philosophical and major econometric questions to be faced in the measurement of inequality of income. The scaling of different sizes and types of families can never be unique and may be a function of real income. However, even subjective guesses may be better than doing nothing. Demographic changes, such as the increase in pensioners with the increase in life expectancy, affects the distribution of income, and it seems desirable to estimate the separate effect of their influence. The extent to which the inequality of incomes is reduced by all taxes and benefits combined has remained remarkably constant in the U.K. over the period for which estimates have been made (1937–1967). The progressive effect of all taxes and benefits combined is largely the result of benefits (in cash and kind). The stability in the degree of inequality of original income is much more difficult to explain. A number of factors which reduce or increase inequality can be identified for further analysis.

Economic productivity in israel, 1950–1965 1

Abstract: Macroeconomic productivity in Israel is here conceived as comparison of output with factor inputs during given periods, and as creation of sustained capacity out of given resource increments. However, present social accounting practice prevents full implementation of this second approach. In contrast to nine European countries, only one third of the rapid growth rate of Israel in 1950–1965 is “explained” by the “Residual” because of relatively large infrastructural investments and of growth problems. One of these problems is inflationary pressures which caused productivity increases to restrain the rise of product prices by 30 per cent only below the rise of input prices. The real productivity gain accrued, in Israel and in the U.S.A. (1919–1957), nearly fully to labor because unit returns to capital remained constant whereas those to labor sharply rose. Some refinements of the statistical models are attempted by incorporating the utilization rates of labor and capital (for industry); and by measuring product from the uses, instead of from the income, side, adding the differences to the capital shares. This makes distributive factor shares nearly constant as postulated by Cobb-Douglas. In order to get a basis for appraising efficiency in creating long-term capacity, that part of product increments is measured which represents rises of p.c. final domestic uses and changes in the export surplus. This “net margin” formed in Israel one fifth and in the U.S.A. (1889–1913) much less of incremental product. Though in Israel one quarter, and in the U.S.A. over half (in 1919–1953) of the net margin went into sonsumption, large proportions of it presumably actually created human capacity. A comparison of product growth rates with population growth, and of the breakdown of the resulting p.c. product growth rates into full final uses, for Israel and two groups, of developed and less developed countries in the fifties shows, inter-alia, that in the L.D.C. only small proportions of their presumable capacity creation was financed by net capital inflows, thus imposing upon them domestic saving rates which presumably are too high to be sustainable.

International average prices and comparisons of national aggregate production of agriculture

Abstract: “The whole question of making inter-spatial comparisons between countries is a most complicated and hazardous business” (Mr. Campion); international comparisons of a particular value aggregate between countries present a difficult problem connected with the conversion of national value aggregates into a comparable magnitude. This paper presents an alternative approach in that an internationally comparable value aggregate for each country is prepared by the international average prices of commodities which are determined simultaneously with the partial exchange rates of national currencies to a standard currency. The calculated partial exchange rates are so defined as to reflect the purchasing power of national currencies in respect of the group of commodities selected. Consequently, the resulting value aggregate for international comparison has a quantity dimension, eliminating the effect due to the different purchasing power of national currencies in which original prices are quoted. The other methods of international comparison so far being used by other research workers, such as C. Clerk and M. Gilbert and his associates, are examined in the light of the properties of the present method and the crucial differences are delineated. Using the method proposed, an international comparison is made of the aggregate value of agricultural products for 11 selected countries in the world, with sub-divisions into two regions.

An analysis of the distribution of wages in copenhagen in the second quarter of 1951

Abstract: This article presents the results of a study of distributions of wage rates in approximately 250 trades, comprising 225,000 workers, in Copenhagen in the second quarter of 1951. It examines particularly the effects of heterogeneity within trades and aggregation upon the resulting distributions, both for individual trades and for all trades combined. Separate distributions are studied for men and women, for skilled and unskilled, and for three types of institutional wage payment systems.

Some comparisons of the canadian-u.s. income distributions

Abstract: This paper compares the income distribution of Canada and the United States as well as other characteristics of the population such as the labour force and income trends in the two countries in the post-war years. In both countries family income distributions show similar degrees of inequality and similar movements in real incomes through time. However, an examination of Canadian data suggests that differences do exist in underlying patterns. For example, there are greater earnings differentials between skilled and unskilled workers in Canada than in the United States while on the other hand in the United States greater differences exist between family incomes with heads in different age groups than is the case in Canada.

Notes and memoranda income, consumption and saving in urban and rural india: a note

Abstract: In a recent issue of the Review of Income and Wealth[1], Uma Datta Roy Choudhury presented some results on consumption and saving functions in India While the study is interesting, some of the results are quite peculiar Thus she reports a marginal propensity to save of 088 for the urban sector, an abnormally high figure Other available evidence points to a much lower figure Again she reports a negative marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income for urban households This makes no economic sense Furthermore her attempts at explaining urban consumption behaviour are not very successful In this paper, we shall show that these suspicious results are the consequences of the measurement and definitions of the variables, and the specification of the functions Once these shortcomings are removed, we obtain more satisfactory and more plausible results In the first section we present a critique of Mrs Roy Choudhury's article In the second section we present our results The last section summarizes the conclusions

Approaches to regional economic accounting in canada

Abstract: In the introduction of the paper, Economic Accounts are defined as a set of statistics useful in economic analysis and region is defined as a province. The paper is divided into four sections the first of which contains a brief historical outline of the development of demands for provincial economic accounts and the Dominion Bureau of Statistics' response to these needs. Apart from a description of the more well-known conceptual difficulties, some of the fundamental problems of the usefulness and applicability of a national accounting framework to the regional scene are discussed. The resource problems of constructing analytically meaningful and reliable as well as spatially reconcilable regional accounts are described. Section II outlines the impact of present policies and problems on the development of regional statistics. It describes the reasons for the Bureau's desire to strengthen its data base in regional terms and the decision to await possible construction of regional accounts till the regional data base has been fleshed out in a more systematic manner. With the development of the latter, the ability, advantages and disadvantages of the provinces undertaking their own estimates must also be more fully explored. The third part of the paper deals with an over-view of work in Canada on provincial accounts carried out by organizations other than the Dominion Bureau of Statistics. Section IV gives a very summary description of the data gaps which exist in presently available regional statistics.

On the possibility of measuring the distribution of personal income

Abstract: The income distribution statistics which are based on income for a single year show a far larger inequality of income than actually exists. The distribution of annual incomes differs from the distribution of lifetime income partly because of short run fluctuations because of such things as sickness, unemployment, and unusual gains, and partly because different individuals are at different points in their life cycles. The vertical distribution of income can be considered to be the distribution of lifetime income. The horizontal distribution can be considered to be the differences arising in the current period due to short run fluctuations and differences in the age-income cycle of persons. The observed annual income distribution statistics are a mixture of the vertical and horizontal distributions. The estimation of the lifetime income distribution implies discounting, and also raises questions as to the treatment of transfers, subsidies, public investments and taxes. However, statistics based upon a mixture of the horizontal and vertical distributions of income are of no interest.