Showing papers in "Review of Income and Wealth in 1982"

Size of the public sector, economic growth and the informal economy: development trends in the federal republic of germany*

Abstract: The growth of the public sector in the post-war period and the consequences of this development for economic growth is a strongly disputed subject of economic theory and policy. In this paper the development trends of state activities in the case of the Federal Republic of Germany are presented. The structure of public expenditures as well as the tax structure are taken into consideration and possible impacts on real economic growth are analysed. The negative correlations between some kinds of public expenditures (or taxes) and the growth rate of real GNP should not be taken in proof of the growth-retarding effects which might ensue from increasing state activities. It seems to be more likely that state activities have induced shifts of resources from the formal into the informal economy. Politicians should be aware that some measures of economic policy conventionally proposed will strengthen the movement into the informal economy, thus intensifying the current problems within the public budgets as well as in the social security system.

True household equivalence scales and characteristics of the poor in the united states

Abstract: In this paper we deal with the question of which measures of economic well-being are adequate to identify those groups of households in the U.S. whose economic conditions justify public concern and assistance. We derive a utility based measure of economic well-being from the estimation of a complete set of consumer demand equations. The demand system is Lluch's Extended Linear Expenditure System (Lluch, 1973). Household characteristics are incorporated using the scaling method proposed by Barten (1966). Using the welfare indicator derived, we study the composition of the poorest part of the population, using data from the 1972–73 Consumer Expenditure Survey. We compare our results with those obtained using various other welfare indicators, including the official U.S. poverty line. We show that using different family composition adjustments significantly and systematically affects just who are considered to be at the bottom of the welfare distribution. We finally suggest that program designers therefore can improve their target efficiency by carefully selecting from among the acceptable indices of welfare when defining program eligibility.

Poverty in europe1

Abstract: In this paper a definition of poverty in terms of welfare is given. A method is developed to derive poverty lines from an individual welfare function of income. The model is extended to analyse the effect of several socio-economic characteristics on the level of the poverty line. An empirical application of the method is given based on data from a survey in eight European countries in 1979. Differences in the poverty lines both between countries and between socio-economic groups within each country are considered. Finally the number of people below these poverty lines is estimated for all countries in the group.

Defining and measuring the public sector: some international comparisons

Abstract: The public sector is defined here to include government plus public enterprises. Historically, economists and statisticians have been more concerned with its separate components than with the public sector as a whole, but it is suggested that the public sector may be an appropriate concept for studying several current problems of economic policy. While there is general agreement as to what constitutes government, countries have differing views about what makes an enterprise public. Differences in country definitions of public enterprises are identified as one of the main problems in making international comparisons for the public sector. Statistics are presented for up to 16 OECD countries on the share of the public sector in total final demand, value added, employment, and net lending. It is argued that there is rarely a unique answer to the question “How big is the public sector?” For most countries judicious selection of data and careful definition will lead to different conclusions about the size and growth of the public sector. Because of the lack of data, it is not possible to analyse public sectors in developing countries in the same detail as OECD countries. The evidence available suggests that while public sectors are about the same size in both OECD and developing countries, public enterprises play a more important role in the latter.

Comparative estimates of the value of household work in the united states for 1976

Abstract: This paper uses five valuation methods to derive aggregate and per person estimates of the value of household work in the United States. Two general questions are posed: (1) what is the relationship between the aggregate estimates and the valuation method used, and (2) how do per person estimates vary by sex and earnings? The main observations of the paper are as follows: First, the aggregate value of household work is sizable regardless of the valuation method used. Second, aggregate estimates are extremely sensitive to the method of valuation. For example, the highest estimate is $475 billion greater than the lowest estimate. Third, contrary to earlier findings, opportunity cost valuation methods generally produce significantly higher estimates than market cost valuation methods. Fourth, per person estimates vary significantly by sex and level of earnings across valuation methods. Generally, market cost estimates.

Income-Generating Functions in a Low Income Country: Colombia

Abstract: Income generating functions are statistical tools used to explain income inequality and other economic outcomes and behavior. These functions are often associated with a strict human capital framework, but they need not be. Instead, they may be viewed as a reduced form equation summarizing the relationship between income and various personal and locational characteristics. Following this latter interpretation, we develop the regression and analysis of variance approaches to income generating functions and estimate them empirically using micro-economic data from one low income country, Colombia. Proceeding to increasingly parsimonious specifications of income generating functions, insights are gained into the structure of incomes in Colombia.

Selected problems of inter‐country comparisons on the basis of the experience of the eec

Abstract: The formidable expansion in the scope of the United Nations International Comparison Project has brought into evidence limitations of the methodology used in the first three phases. The author considers that there are two indispensable conditions needed to give renewed impetus to the ICP: (a) the objectives must be redefined, and (b) the methodology must be built on an entirely new basis. He considers the broad lines of such an evolution to be the following. (a) The objective of volume comparison must be kept distinct from that of purchasing power comparison, given that both the basic material and the formulae to be used at the aggregate level differ in the two cases. (b) At the basic heading level, it is proposed, for both volume and purchasing power comparisons, to replace the multilateral approach by a “minimum scale” binary and unilateral approach, and to use the EKS method. This will make possible an improvement in the accuracy of the estimates, a reduction in the overall costs, and a drastic reduction in execution time. What is more, it would be possible to regionalize the worldwide comparison, in the sense that the results of the basic heading comparisons already obtained at the regional level for regional purposes can be used as an input in the framework of the worldwide comparison. At the aggregate level, in the framework of volume comparison, it is proposed that a constant price procedure in the spatial sense should continue to be used. It is, however, proposed that the prices of the set of countries (GK) be replaced by a structure of common “equi-distant” prices (G). This would permit the elimination of the significant systematic distortions observed in the comparison between rich and poor countries in the first three phases of ICP. What is more, this gives maximum stability to results obtained for the same countries at different geographical levels. By using a set of common “equi-distant” quantities, the same advantage can be obtained in the purchasing power comparison.

Total incomes in the united states, 1946–1976: a summary report

Abstract: Extended accounts of total income and product and associated capital stocks for the United States, in current and constant dollars, are offered for the years 1946 to 1976. They include intangible and tangible capital accumulation and non-market and market outputs in all sectors, services of government and household capital and of unpaid household labor, and opportunity costs of students. Defense and police services are classified as intermediate product; a portion of commercial media services is counted as final product. Expenses related to work are subtracted while the values of employee training and human capital formation and net revaluations of existing tangible capital are added. Total incomes (TISA) net national product was 50 percent greater than official Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) NNP in 1976. BEA gross private domestic investment was only about 18 percent of TISA gross capital accumulation. Intangible investment and TISA net domestic capital accumulation grew more rapidly than BEA net private domestic investment. Household investment has been growing while there have been sharp declines in government investment, particularly in research and development. Contrary to some views of the import of the narrower BEA accounts, total capital accumulation appears to have risen considerably more rapidly than total consumption, 6.3 percent versus 2.2 percent per annum from 1946 to 1976, thus increasing sharply its share of TISA GNP.

Working with what we have: how can existing data be used in the construction and analysis of socio‐demographic matrices?1

Abstract: This paper outlines a general strategy for constructing socio-demographic matrices, starting with a set of initial estimates based on available data and ending with a set of final estimates adjusted to meet the constraints connecting their true values. The method is described and illustrated by a numerical example taken from the author's current work on marital transition matrices. The figures relate to the male population of England and Wales in 1978 and are based on British official statistics of population numbers, births, deaths, migrations, marriages, widowhoods and divorces.

Is u.s. growth understated because of the underground economy? employment ratios suggest not

Abstract: Has the underground economy caused the increase in United States GNP in recent years to be understated relative to earlier periods? The ratio of employment to population provides powerful evidence that it has not. This ratio’ was as high in the middle 1970s as in previous periods and in 1978–80 rose to its highest level of the postwar era, suggesting that employment growth has not been understated. Employment series based on both establishment reports and household surveys yield exceptionally high ratios in recent years. This article provides a step-by-step explanation of why employment data are pertinent to the question raised about GNP. This explanation may be summarized as follows. GNP measured as the sum of final products is not understated unless GNP measured as the sum of national income and other charges against GNP is also understated. Appreciable understatement of the growth of charges against GNP as a result of growth of the underground economy is highly unlikely in the absence of understatement of the growth of wages and salaries, because of the way the estimates are made. Understatement of the growth of wages and salaries without understatement of the growth of employment based on establishment reports is highly unlikely because of the way data are collected. The article explains briefly the relationship between income tax evasion and errors in measuring the various components of charges against GNP. It also explains how illegal activities are meant to be handled in GNP measurement.

Generating internationally comparable income distribution data: evidence from the federal republic of germany (1974), mexico (1968) and the united kingdom (1979).

Abstract: In this article an attempt is made to generate internationally comparable income distribution data for the Federal Republic of Germany (1974), Mexico (1968) and the United Kingdom (1979). To that end, the same income concept and income unit were adopted for each country, i.e. respectively household available income and the household. Moreover, incomes from various sources were adjusted for inconsistency with National Accounts according to Altimir's methodology. The paper finds that the distribution of persons by household income per equivalent unit is probably the best way of looking at the distribution of economic welfare. It further demonstrates that the distribution of persons by household available income per capita is much closer to this ‘ideal’ distribution than the distribution of households by household available income. Finally, the paper discusses some of the problems arising from the fact that one normally works with grouped data. It is found that in the case of the three countries under study, grouping is likely to have had only a small impact on the results.

Proposals for a homogeneous treatment of health expenditures in the national accounts

Abstract: International comparisons always raise difficult problems, more especially when they deal with services which are jointly financed by households and government in varying shares with varying procedures in each country. This is obvious in the case of health where the area itself, the principles of economic analysis and the UN method of National Accounting appear to be either vague or unwieldy. Before any proposal it is necessary to review what is involved in the concept of service and the possibility of delimiting the health field inside which economic measures are feasible. Then using the SNA concept and with the help of six interdependent tables we propose two aggregates: the National Medical Consumption and the Current National Expenditure on health. The detailed and harmonized breakdowns of these global results make it possible to compare the structures of values, prices and quantities on an international base.

Dividing government product between intermediate and final uses

Abstract: This paper explores the possibility of using the Classification of the Functions of Government published recently by the United Nations (COFOG) in order to segregate intermediate from final use of government production in the national accounts. It is argued that the notorious difficulties of doing that can be traced to two reasons, one the multiplicity of theoretical concepts, and the other the lack of sufficient detail at the statistical level. The first can be removed by clarifying that on the production account of an economy only production and not welfare is to be measured. The second seems to be overcome by the three-digit detail of COFOG. It is shown that many of these categories are now sufficiently homogeneous for a panel of experts to agree in assigning them to either intermediate or final use, although for a number of categories this is still difficult. The question is whether consensus in the major categories is large enough to consider the remaining controversial ones as border cases, normal in any classification and solved in the last instance not by argument but by convention. Some preliminary figures for the intermediate part of government production are given.

Compilation of Input-Output Tables: Canada

Abstract: The Input-Output Division of Statistics Canada prepares and publishes annual Input-Output Tables for Canada in both current and constant prices. The latest tables refer to the year 1977 and with this there is a completely consistent historical series of annual tables from 1961.

PURCHASING POWER PARITIES IN INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS: QUANTITY vs. PRICE COMPARISONS

Abstract: Just as intertemporal price indices have two functions, to measure price changes and to deflate current values to constant values, this is true also for interspatial price indices, purchasing power parities (PPPs). In practice these two functions of PPPs, for conversion and for comparing price levels, are not always distinguished, and this may have some disadvantages since in a number of cases the differences between the two PPPs might be considerable. The authors review the differences in content of the two types of PPPs, and make some suggestions for making the distinction more explicitly.

National accounting with limited data: lessons from nepal

Abstract: The Kingdom of Nepal is one of the least developed and least known countries. In order to understand the sometimes non-conventional estimating procedure used, a background section is included, describing the physical, socio-economic and institutional framework. In the second part of the paper some illustrative examples of the approaches used are given, the full description being published in four volumes, National Accounts of Nepal, National Planning Commission, Kathmandu. The last part of the paper considers the usefulness of national accounts based upon the market economy, and in general, the problem of applicability of international concepts to a developing country. What is the significance of international concepts to a developing country? What is the significance of national value aggregates in a country in which the unit of national currency does not serve as a nation-wide standard of value? Can a common denominator be found if the scale of values and the whole outlook of different groups are so different? What do people value, and does the rural population in localized economies put a monetary price on the value? Has the concept of labour force or employment, as used in industrial societies, any meaning in a society where all those capable, including small children, of contributing to daily survival do so? The conceptual problems have not yet been solved. National accounts are a useful first step in providing planners with symbols for telling a complex story in simple terms and as a kind of statistical reconnaissance, but as development planning is moving more and more in the direction of planning from below and into regional and rural development projects, household surveys are becoming essential planning and evaluation tools. Based upon twenty-five years of field experience, the author reflects upon problems and possible solutions, discussing managerial, training, substantive and statistical aspects.

Problems of Identifying and Measuring Intermediate Services in the Compilation and Use of Input-Output Tables

Abstract: This paper is mainly concerned with statistical problems relating to intermediate services that arise in the construction of national input-output (I-O) tables. Though these problems are sometimes discussed in the I-O literature, their precise nature is usually not spelled out in any detail and this is done in the paper. The problems are closely related to the classical company-establishment statistical dichotomy permeating the ultimate sources and allocation of intermediate service inputs. We will show that presently used procedures for Canadian and American I-O compilation bear evidence of statistical inconsistencies and lack an appropriate framework to utilize full information. The paper suggests a possible approach for reconciling company and establishment data based on industrial organization linkage analysis at the microdata level. Considerable empirical support is offerred, using official Canadian statistical publications, to show that the suggested approach is both feasible and has desirable properties.

Comments on: “selected problems of intercountry comparisons on the basis of the experience of the eec”

Abstract: The paper by Gerardi covers considerable ground, touching on a wide variety of issues in the area of international comparisons of product and purchasing power. Since our views on most of these subjects have been expounded in one or another of the International Comparison Project volumes and we will concentrate mainly on the central issue raised by Gerardi of the selection of an aggregation process that must somehow take account of the tastes of all the people who are the subject of an international comparison inquiry. In addition, we comment on some other points including the notion of special purpose PPPs. Finally, we make a brief statement about where we think future research will be most useful in improving international comparisons.

Selected problems of welfare and production in the national accounts

Abstract: A number of rather traditional problems relating to the estimation of the national accounts have been raised in the recent literature. This paper examines five of these problems from the point of view of a government statistician working within certain time and resource constraints. Credibility, comprehensibility, theoretical validity, cost and analytical usefulness are the criteria which should aid in deciding how to treat such matters as the extension of the boundaries of economic production, proposed changes in the categorization of both final and intermediate expenses, the treatment of “total” welfare and estimation relating to the so-called underground economy.

Measurement of the role o f the public sector in the finnish economy

Abstract: Following the growth of the public sector traditional measures of the size of the public sector have appeared to be inadequate for policy purposes. In the article the role of the public sector in the Finnish economy is described first by using some traditional methods and indicators. The historical background of the development is briefly discussed. After that some specific problems of the measurement are discussed. These problems include measurement of output and productivity, definition of appropriate balance of the public sector, different measures to describe the size and scope of the public sector, role of tax reliefs and subsidies, different organizational arrangements, public sector regulation etc. The growth of the public sector takes many different forms and it appears to be more difficult than formerly to obtain a comprehensive picture of the scope of the public sector. For different purposes different indicators have to be used. At the end of the paper the implications of the changing emphasis in the public policy are discussed.

Public sector statistics for the united kingdom

Abstract: This paper describes the composition of the public sector in the United Kingdom and traces the development and contribution to the economy of the three main sub-sectors-central government, local government and public corporations—over the past thirty years. Relevant data for output, employment, fixed capital formation and national wealth set the public sector into perspective with the economy as a whole and illustrate how its share of human and other resources has changed over the years. While all four measures show the public sector share of the total to have been around 30 percent in 1980, historically the changes have moved very differently. The slow, but fairly steady, increase in the share of employment and output contrasts with very marked changes in the other two measures. Although public sector fixed investment nearly doubled in real terms between 1950 and 1980 its share of total investment declined from 48 to 31 percent, a much smaller share being taken by dwellings, electricity supply and the railways. In terms of the share of national wealth the public sector moved from a state of indebtedness to the rest of the economy in the fifties and sixties to a position of holding nearly one third of the value of tangible and financial assets in the late seventies. A small part of the paper considers the international dimension, but because few other countries use the concept of a public sector, this section examines only the relationship between total tax revenue and GDP in a number of countries and employment in general government. The problems of determining the boundary of the public and private sectors occurs most frequently at the interface between public corporations and private enterprises; the rules for deciding classification are set out in so far as they can be specified. The last sections of the paper put the statistics into their policy context and consider the value of public sector aggregates. The conclusion is that a general case cannot be made to justify assembling public sector aggregates for all countries; the need will be determined by the economic policies being pursued in a particular country. Although the United Kingdom gives considerable prominence to a public sector financial aggregate, the Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, the functions of the public corporations and the rest of the public sector are so disparate that consolidated accounts for the public sector are no longer prepared.

Comparison of the productivity levels of austrian and hungarian industry: methods and results

Abstract: Cooperation between the Austrian and Hungarian central statistical offices in the field of industrial productivity has a history of two decades. The first comparison, carried out in 1965, was partly experimental in objective and nature. The second full scale survey took place a decade later in 1975. This was followed by a further study of about two years duration of the level of productivity and the factors influencing it in three sectors: food, metallurgy and engineering. For this study the three sectors were broken down into 31 sub-branches and nearly 400 product groups. An important and labour-intensive element of the comparisons was harmonization of the sector and product classification system; UN recommendations were increasingly helpful for this work, and relying upon them will be expedient also in the future. In the decade under review the productivity advantage of Austrian industry increased, from about 40 percent in 1965 to an average 75 percent in 1975. The dispersion of sectoral productivity indices around the average value was significant in both years. The similarity of the 1965 and 1975 comparisons offered an exceptional opportunity to examine the reliability of extrapolation. The investigations unambiguously demonstrated that extrapolation did not give reliable results for a period as long as ten years, primarily because of structural changes in production and changes in price weights. The most important conclusion to be drawn from the investigation of the three selected branches is its extraordinary usefulness from the economic, political and methodological points of view. A further important conclusion is that the method of comparison must be selected in the light of an extensive consideration of the output and technological structure of the branches.

National accounts as an instrument for the analysis of the sources of stagflation an example: france and germany, 1971–79

Abstract: Stagflation is a combination of an increasing rate of inflation with a decreasing rate of real growth. It appears when the inflationary gap of production costs raises faster than the inflationary gap of expenditures on Gross Domestic Marketable Product. The decomposition of these two gaps into their main elements gives then the possibility of determining the sources of the inflationary increase in costs and the causes of the relative retardation of the inflationary increase in expenditures. The main cause of stagflation in 1974 for France and Germany was the huge rise in oil prices which had not been immediately followed by an equal rise in prices of their exports. The inflationary rise in wages is an almost permanent factor of stagflation in France; in Germany its responsibility is involved only before 1975. In France the insufficient increase in the inflationary gap of expenditures was mainly due to the restrictive monetary policy and to the official price regulation. In Germany the restrictive monetary policy also contributed to the slowdown in demand in 1974 and 1975. In 1977, on the contrary, the main cause of stagflation was the slackening of export demands due to the world recession and the revaluation of the DM.