Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 1974"

TL;DR: In this article, a methodology is described which can be used to forecast the dynamics of the substitution process and other procedures applicable to cases where historical substitution data are available are also described.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors address the question of how to select sets of boundary conditions that are internally consistent and suitably variable with time, and propose a method for making the needed kind of whole-pattern projections.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors review some methods and techniques applicable to the preparation of Environmental Impact Statements (EIS's) emphasizing and drawing upon the accumulated experience in the conduct of technology assessment studies.

TL;DR: The exploration of paradigmatology and its application to cross-disciplinary, cross-professional and cross-cultural communication and transparadigmatic process as the process to create not-yet-existing paradigms is discussed.

TL;DR: There are a number of differences in procedures when a large scale Delphi is undertaken as mentioned in this paper, such as panel fatigue, panel consister cy, the consensus phenomena, and early plurality.

TL;DR: This paper argues that the notion of the controlled experiment is vastly more complicated than Campbell and his colleagues have envisaged, and attempts to develop a methodology for choosing between alternate conceptualizations of the same problem.

TL;DR: In the early 1970s, the American federal government established an Office of Technology Assessment to advise Congress on legislative problems related to new technology and its probable impact as mentioned in this paper, which reflected an ambivalence toward engineering innovation that has been rare during the last thousand years in the Occidental culture of which we are part.

TL;DR: A workshop approach for the rapid development of simulation models is described, with intimate involvement of resource specialists in the model building process, so that communication between resource disciplines is greatly enhanced.

TL;DR: In this paper, the available data such as they are, on invention and innovation in such industries as agriculture, paper, petroleum, railroading, and molecular beams are subjected to a major statistical analysis.

TL;DR: In this article, the diffusion of new technology is described by a simple mathematical model and the parameters of the model are related to the technological background and the prevailing market conditions of the population of industrial firms into which diffusion occurs.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors have studied how the discharge of carbon dioxide and heat from fuel combustion will affect the atmosphere, and they have shown that technological advances in re-cycling of resources, the utilization of solar energy, and the development of nuclear fusion will completely change the energy picture for the human race by the year 2000.

TL;DR: In this paper, a system dynamics model is described which was developed to simulate resource allocation policies in an industrial research laboratory and which was used to investigate the effects of various levels of internal support in a selected area of research on the projected amount of external government support to be received in future time periods.

TL;DR: The authors conclude that the search for a single method for carrying out assessments is misguided because it fails to recognize that assessments require an appropriate mix of methods and techniques drawn from a variety of fields, and that much of the important, creative work of scientists and other technical people must remain tacit and cannot be programmed.

TL;DR: In this paper, the classic example of the Greek sibyls (i.e., deliberate ambiguity) may be the most desirable for the future research in future forecasting. But, as for criteria for good future research, there are none identifiable now; it is doubtful that there can be any; it might be better for the the future if there were none.

TL;DR: In their attempt to use multiple regression analysis to estimate the movement of a technology trade-off surface over time, Alexander and Nelson employed a methodology with wide and important potential applications as mentioned in this paper.

TL;DR: The Club of Rome is faced with the need to include those elements of the problematique which were excluded or minimized in its first study, so it is necessary to extend the financial and economic criteria which business and government currently use to include criteria for the environment, human beings and society, and the characteristics of national boundaries.

TL;DR: Some of the operational implications of subjective probabilities within the domain of phenomenal indeterminacy, and the role of deductive instruments within the arsenal of the long-range forecaster and complex-systems analyst are explored.

TL;DR: The relationship between U.S. R&D funding and other macroparameters is analyzed on an overall national basis and within the four major sectors of the economy.

TL;DR: The teratological forecasting model is an anticipated self-teaching model based on the investigation of the deviations of the modelled behavior that makes it possible to construct and verify new models of complex social systems.

TL;DR: An analysis of the unemployment picture among the college educated is presented in this paper, where the authors argue that government policies do not attempt to address this problem directly, but in some cases only serve to magnify the problem by providing incentives to the young to enter college training programs, with the hope of future employment in various job market sectors.

TL;DR: In this article, a simple model which describes the memory adequetly is proposed to bring order into the apparent chaos of the computer memory market, and the most advanced memory systems are represented by a set of figures of merit which define the state of the art line.