Showing papers in "Technological Forecasting and Social Change in 2000"

TL;DR: One of the main functions of the strategic futures exercise is to eliminate two errors that are usually described as the “hammer's risk” and the � “nail's dream”.

TL;DR: A number of computational models of creative designing; including combination, transformation, analogy, emergence, and first principles as a representative set are described within a uniform framework and the potential of having such models on technological change in a society where designers are the change agents of the physical world is indicated.

TL;DR: In this article, the ecometric approach developed by Unilever for overall business impact assessment (OBIA) is extended to show how environmental impacts and economic value build up along the supply chain of a product.

TL;DR: In this paper, the role of standards in innovation is discussed, with particular emphasis on design and manufacturing processes, and it is concluded that the benefits of standards on innovation and manufacturing outweigh the possible limitations on creativity imposed by such standards.

TL;DR: In this paper, an in-depth history of technological development for four electric power technologies, including wind turbines, solar photovoltaics, gas turbines, and atmospheric fluidized bed combustion, is presented.

TL;DR: The article reviews the basics of genetic algorithm operation and connects the basic mechanics to two processes of innovation: continual improvement and discontinuous change.

TL;DR: The author develops a primer or step-by-step methodology for moving from scenarios to strategy, outlining four different approaches and suggests that only after a great deal of practice will managers be able to move from this elementary approach to a more intuitive and insightful use of scenarios as a guide to strategy.

TL;DR: In this paper, a brief guide reviews the philosophical underpinnings of the prospective procedure and explains the concepts and characteristics of this "intellectual undiscipline" which aims not to predict but rather to help shape the future.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors examine how scenarios can be more than a futures studies tool, and look at the necessary epistemological, methodological, and ethical criteria for such scenarios.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors study global adoption processes where the units of observation are countries which sequentially adopt a particular innovation and provide a better understanding of how exogenous and endogenous country characteristics affect this diffusion process.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors present a set of 40 emissions scenarios developed by five different modeling teams over the last three years, based on an extensive assessment of the literature and shared assumptions about the main driving forces of future emissions.

TL;DR: In this paper, a critical examination of long-range energy forecasts shows that individual and collective failure in predicting actual developments in five distinct areas examined in this article: major energy conversions, primary energy requirements, sectoral needs, exhaustion of energy resources, and energy substitutions.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors discuss scenarios based on two world views, each giving a perspective on the futurity of organizational actions, and propose a scenario planner alternates intuitive exploration of the situation with rational analysis and forecasting in an iterative way until a satisfactory description of the future has been derived.

TL;DR: In this article, two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios covering the period 1990-2100 are described, the B2 scenario and B2S550 scenario, which are both constrained to stabilize the atmospheric carbon concentration below 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv).

TL;DR: The rise of future studies or prospective in France is reviewed and the EDF shows that scenario planning groups are semiformal, and can create a networking activity not limited in time and space.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyzed long-term greenhouse gas emissions and their mitigation in a family of high economic and energy demand growth scenarios in which technological change unfolds in alternative "path dependent" directions.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors describe a greenhouse gas emissions scenario for a world that chooses collectively and effectively to pursue service-oriented economic prosperity while taking into account equity and environmental concerns, but without policies directed at mitigating climate change.

TL;DR: In this article, a time-dependent geographical distribution of surface-air temperature change relative to year 2000 is constructed for four scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, and are compared to the IS92a scenario.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss the discourses of modernism and postmodernism, and explore the phenomenon of the Web using a series of postmodern themes, a rubric of praxes and thoughts that characterizes the information age.

TL;DR: This paper conducted an inductive study of nine organizations' preparations for major crises and found that there is a discrepancy between the prescriptive literature on crisis preparation and how organizations actually prepare for crises, and that a number of contextual factors determine which types of crises are prepared for and the form that those preparations take.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors discuss structural shifts as they relate to the issue of climate change and assess the dynamics of structural shifts through the interaction of all these driving forces, including the utilization of the natural endowments of a country, including climate and natural resources.

TL;DR: Directed evolution (DE) as discussed by the authors is a proactive method to be used by a company engaged in the development of new products and processes, which is for the preparation of a comprehensive set of scenarios that allows for the planning and ongoing development of future generations of technological systems.

TL;DR: In this article, the authors analyzed long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios depending on alternative development paths in the developing countries of this region (referred to hereafter as "the Developing Asia-Pacific") as well as in the world.

TL;DR: In this paper, a review of recent business literature on the determinants and dynamics of organizational creativity, and its linkages with the nature and scope of organizational learning and knowledge creation within the firm is presented.

TL;DR: In this paper, a set of 30 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios developed by six modeling teams were presented, which describe trajectories up to 2100 by four world regions.

TL;DR: In this paper, a general model of (relative) flexibility is proposed, building on Ashby's [1] definition of the variety that must be generated by a sustainable system, and a special case of this model is applied to 10 years of financial data on 44 computer and computer related companies.

TL;DR: In this paper, the authors analyze the mechanisms whereby one technology (crystalline silicon) has become established in a dominant position by using a knowledge base shared with the electronic components industry.

TL;DR: In this article, an extended version of an integrated assessment model called MARIA (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation) was applied to develop global and regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios.

TL;DR: The special phenomenology of phase changes, catastrophes, or “crashes,” and their key evolutionary role is the subject of this article and a number of possible discontinuity scenarios are sketched, although the article laments the lack of theorization in forecasting disconuities.

TL;DR: The Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF) was one of the six models selected to develop the scenarios, which are referred to here as IS99-ASF scenarios.