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A disaggregate model of auto-type choice
Charles Lave,Kenneth Train +1 more
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This paper introduced a multinomial logit model for the type of car that households will choose to buy, which includes a large variety of auto characteristics as explanatory variables, as well as a large number of characteristics of the household and the driving environment.About:
This article is published in Transportation Research Part A: General.The article was published on 1979-02-01. It has received 200 citations till now. The article focuses on the topics: Poison control & Multinomial logistic regression.read more
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What type of vehicle do people drive? The role of attitude and lifestyle in influencing vehicle type choice
Abstract: Traditionally, economists and market researchers have been interested in identifying the factors that affect consumers' car buying behaviors to estimate market share, and to that end they have developed various models of vehicle type choice. However, they do not usually consider consumers' travel attitudes, personality, lifestyle, and mobility as factors that may affect the vehicle type choice. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship of such factors to individuals' vehicle type choices, and to develop a disaggregate choice model of vehicle type based on these factors as well as typical demographic variables. The data for this study comes from a 1998 mail-out/mail-back survey of 1904 residents in the San Francisco Bay Area. The dependent variable (the vehicle type the respondent drives most often) is classified into nine categories: small, compact, mid-sized, large, luxury, sports, minivan/van, pickup, and sport utility vehicle. Based on these categories, we first related vehicle type to travel attitude, personality, lifestyle, mobility, and demographic variables individually, using one-way analysis of variance and chi-squared tests. Then, a multinomial logit model for vehicle type choice was estimated. The final model (which possessed the IIA property) confirmed that the variables analyzed significantly affect an individual's vehicle type choice. These results provide useful background not only to vehicle manufacturers, but also to decision makers and planners of transportation policy related to vehicle ownership, traffic congestion, and energy consumption.
Journal ArticleDOI
Review of hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and electric vehicle market modeling Studies
TL;DR: A comprehensive review of the literature of HEV, PHEV and EV penetration rate studies, their methods, and their recommendations can be found in this paper, where a suite of analytical and computational tools are applied to model the consumer acceptability of these technologies under a wide variety of policy and macroeconomic scenarios.
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A dynamic empirical analysis of household vehicle ownership and utilization
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a dynamic model of household vehicle ownership and utilization behavior by using data that were generated before, during, and after the 1979 energy crisis, and found that households have maintained a distinct preference for American over foreign cars, but also have strong brand loyalties.
Journal ArticleDOI
Will subsidies drive electric vehicle adoption? Measuring consumer preferences in the U.S. and China
John Paul Helveston,Yimin Liu,Elea McDonnell Feit,Erica R.H. Fuchs,Erica Klampfl,Jeremy J. Michalek +5 more
TL;DR: In this article, consumer preferences for conventional, hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric (PHEV), and battery electric (BEV) vehicle technologies in China and the U.S. were modeled using data from choice-based conjoint surveys fielded in 2012-2013 in both countries.
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Vehicle Choice Behavior and the Declining Market Share of U.S. Automakers
Kenneth Train,Clifford Winston +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, the authors developed a consumer-level model of vehicle choice to shed light on the erosion of the U.S. automobile manufacturers' market share during the past decade, examining the influence of vehicle attributes, brand loyalty, product line characteristics, and dealerships.
References
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Journal ArticleDOI
The Estimation of Choice Probabilities from Choice Based Samples
TL;DR: In this paper, a choice-based sampling process is proposed to estimate the parameters of a probabilistic choice model when choices rather than decision makers are sampled and the characteristics of the decision makers selecting those alternatives are observed.
An analysis of the automobile market: modeling the long-run determinants of the demand for automobiles.
George R. Schink,Colin J. Loxley +1 more
TL;DR: In this article, an econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class.
An analysis of the automobile market: modeling the long-run determinants of the demand for automobiles. volume ii - simulation analysis using the wharton efa automobile demand model
G R Schink,C J Loxley +1 more
Abstract: An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired stock" and its composition by size-class are related to numerous economic and demographic variables using cross-section data. Among them is a new "capitalized cost per mile" measure, which expresses all costs over time relative to miles driven, discounted back to the present. New registrations, total and by class, and scrappage are found to be strongly related to "desired stock" relative to actual stock, with other influences operating as "speed of adjustment" factors. Fuel efficiency is analyzed in detail, relating mpg by class to physical vehicle characteristics and technological developments. Purchase prices and options expenditures are analyzed and all cost measures distinguished by foreign vs domestic origin as well as by size-class. Volume I summarizes and describes the study, and contains a forecast through 2000. Volume II contains extensive simulation analysis, with public policy implications. Volume III contains data and methodology appendices.